Author: Create Wealth Through Long-Term Investing and Short-Term Trading

Retirement Income for Life??? (4)

Read? Retirement Income for Life??? (3) Read? 12 Years of Christmas and Two Lessons in Investing. Uncle8888’s Plan for Liquidity of Expenses during his retirement till 80 yrs old Yes, applying two lessons learn!   When the Investing Mind is calm, it will become more opportunistic and savvy.  3Ms in Investing: Method, Mind, and Money Management  ...

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Me, No multi-baggers (7)

Read? Me, No multi-baggers (6) Someone asked me again. How to find multi-baggers? Okay la! Here are the steps to find your own multi-baggers … Finding multi-baggers is NOT a method. It is more of strategies. You must have the right strategies in place before multi-baggers can happen. You can’t find them! Step 1: Read? What did I share with a guy called Noobz on our first meeting? Step 2: Understand and implement Pillow Stock strategy. Read? Pillow Stocks Strategy (2) Step 3: Unlearn and forget about Bearish Divergence! Step 4: Be patient. Don’t be Kiasu and Kiasi over market...

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Path to Financial Freedom for the Young ones???

Just For Thinking …. Here is Uncle8888’s advice to young ones including his own children. The path to financial freedom for young ones shouldn’t be the first path that you put in their body and soul into stock market and hoping to reach financial freedom via stock market. You should at first put your energy and effort to attempt to climb the Corporate Ladder and get promoted under fast track. If you can succeed in doing that, your path to Financial Freedom is almost there with your $XXX,XXX or $X,XXX,XXX annual salary package and with some financial common sense on saving and...

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More S-REITS in our portfolio when we retire???

Just For Thinking       More S-REIT in our portfolio when we retire??? S-REIT are known to issue rights by asking existing investors to cough back part of their past years received dividend income back to them for their growth. For retirees who have plenty of spare capital for investing, then no issue. They can easily continue their game of passive income from S-REIT.  But, for those retirees who have little or no more capital for investing to continue with their game and solely depending on this level of passive income for living expenses. It is a different ball game!  ...

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Why must be Gold for hedging Inflation???

Just For Thinking ….   Ask yourself this! Do you have a Exit Plan for your Gold? Hmm… No Exit Plan??? No investment yield from Gold! Hedge what???   We can invest for good yield and potential capital appreciation for real long term e.g. decades and the accumulated yield will be one day be more than enough to compensate us for our loyalty. But, for Gold, can we speculate without an Exit Plan???  Don’t be naive!!!...

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The sun rose for Keppel – in a sunset industry!

 Just For Thinking … Money, Saturday, January 5, 2013. ST When things looked bleak in 1980s, shipyard carved itself a niche. Mr Choo recalled: “In the 1980s, the Singapore environment for shipyards was very bad. We were told that the shipyard business is a sunset industry. “But, I told our guys the sun sets, the sun also rises. Two-thirds of the earth’s surface is still covered by ocean.” Keppel made a conscious effort to crave a niche. Mr Choo said: “You must choose battles that you can win.” That’s why we don’t build tankers, bulk carriers and container ships....

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Funding Your Child’s University in the Future? – Updated for fourth year

Read? Funding Your Child’s University in the Future? – Updated for third year Update as on 5 Jan 2013: This is what I have spend on the two kids so far- all expenses incurred on the kids themselves but excluding common expenses e.g. family meals For three plus full years of study at local U on tuition fees and all living expenses are as follows: SMU: $48.2K (Higher tuition fee and higher meal costs at campus) – Daughter. One more semester to go in 2013 NUS: $30.6K – Son (Completed. Three year course) :-) Total = $78.8K (as on 5 Jan...

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为何没有第二个巴菲特?

Thank to Ray Ng for his sharing of this article 冷眼2011-06-24 世界500名最富有的人,都是靠经营某种事业成功而 致富的,巴菲特是惟一“不事生产”,单靠股票投资而挤身世界500强者。他的财富,仅次於世界首富茨盖。 研究巴菲特成功秘诀的书,少说也有一两百种,模仿他的投资法的人,当不在少数,然而世上却未闻出现第二个巴菲特,何也? 实际上,在美国,曾有不少基金经理,师法巴菲特之投资法,对巴菲特亦步亦趋,却没有听说有那一个基金,创造了如巴菲特般的辉煌业绩。 不仅是巴菲特,其他投资大师,都成为无数投资者崇拜的偶像,如彼得林奇(Peter Lynn)、邓普顿(Sir John Teupleton)、菲力辉塞(Philip Fisher)、罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)等,都是投资界巨人,为基金投资者创造庞大的财富,本身也成为富豪。 这些杰出的投资家,都曾著书立说,与投资大众分享他们的投资经验,私淑这些大师的人,难以计数,然而却没有听说有第二个彼得林奇、邓普顿、菲力辉塞、罗杰斯的出现,何也? 原来学习任何的技艺,或从事任何的事业,都可以分为两个层次,第一个层次是“方法”,第二个层次是“心法”。 长期醖酿 所谓“戏法人人会变,巧妙各自不同”,师傅可以教你怎样变戏法,而且只要中等资质的人,都可以学会,因为这是“方法”,“方法”是基率的技术,但是如何把戏法变得“巧妙”,就要提升到“心法”的层次了,“心法”是天份。 领悟训练及经验的综合体,必须经过长期的醖酿才能得到,这就要靠徒弟自动自发的去摸索,去不断的练习,才有可能成功,所谓“熟能生巧”,要“巧”,必须“熟”,熟到极点,则“心法”自然水到渠成。 譬如打球,教练可以教你“方法”,但是要成为奥运会冠军,就要靠运动员本身的资质、领悟、训练及经验的累积,到了“庖丁解牛”时,“以神遇而不以目视,官知止而神欲行”(白话:用心神去领会而不必用眼睛去观看,器官(指手)的作用停止了,只是心神在运行操作)(庄子“养生主”)。到了上下纵横皆如意的境界,“心法”就产生了。又譬如武术,师傅可以教你如何使刀弄棍,而且一般资质的徒弟都学得懂,因为这是“方法”。不假思索 但是,在迎敌时,你如何见招拆招,化解对方的攻势,就必须学到不假思索就作出反应的地步才行,如果你的招数停留在“方法”的层面,对方出招时你才来想一想用什么招数去应付,肯定一败涂地。武艺练到不假思索,自然而然的出招的地步,才可以成为“高手”,“高手”必然有“心法”。 再譬如驾车,你的驾车技术必须到了不假思索就摆动驾驶盘的地步,才可以避免车祸。如果你看到一只野狗突然奔出公路,你才来思索要把车子摆向何方,你准会出事,不假思索就把车子驾到左方或右方,避开野狗,其实就是“心法”在操作。 股票投资亦如此,尽人皆知低买高卖可以赚钱,何以那么多人赔本?何以在低的时候不买,高的时候不卖?为什么低不买却高买。高不卖却低卖?因为你还停留在“方法”的层面,没有到达“心法”的层面。 在“方法”的层面,你在股价低跌时,希望跌得更低,所以始终不敢出手,也不知如何出手。就好像只懂得花拳绣腿的武师,见对方使出一记“黑虎偷心”时,才来思索如何拆招,已是太迟了。低不买,是因为你平时不做功课,不知股票的价值,所以不敢买进。 勤做功课做到“低买” 如果你平时勤做功课,对股票的价值了然於心,当股价跌到低水平时,你知道价值是被低估了,就自然而然的产生买进的胆识,做到“低买”。 让我举一个实例:去年当嘉利丹(Kretam)的股价徘徊在1令吉20仙的水平时,我曾向一些股友建议买进,但多数人的反应是“这是一只劣股”,不要买进。 因为他们所记得的,是10年前的嘉利丹,那时嘉里丹由于属下股票行、高达2亿多令吉的烂账而陷入困境,几乎没顶。 该公司进行业务重组,发出一系列的可赎回及不可赎回债券,这些债券利息和数额各异。 该公司靠着3万6000英亩油棕园的盈利,加上脱售一些非核心资产,逐步赎回债券,加以注销,经过了将近10年的奋斗,终於一步一步的还清债务。 到去年8月时终於无债一身轻,手头甚至还有数千万令吉的现金,试问一家在沙巴拥有3万6000英亩油棕园,完全没有负债的公司,怎么会出毛病?怎能称为“劣股”? 为什么嘉利丹会给投资者以“劣股”的印象? 原来该公司的债券有多种,利息和还期不同,该公司忍辱负重,默默地,一步一步地赎回,每年赎回的数额,胥视公司的盈利而定,除非肯下工夫去挖掘这些资料,又长期追踪该公司财务进展情况。错失良机 否则,很难了解该公司的实况,到投资机会出现时,投资者脑海中只记得10年前嘉利丹陷困时的惨状,看不到火浴后重生的嘉利丹,就这样错过了低价买进嘉利丹的机会。 另一个原因是多数人不了解油棕园的价值。 目前沙巴油棕园每英亩的市价高达2万5000令吉,假如以每股1令吉20仙买进嘉利丹,等于以3亿令吉购买3万6000英亩油棕园,平均每英亩买价约为8000令吉,以8000令吉买进价值2万5000令吉的油棕园,风险何在? 为什么不买,因为不了解,不了解,是因为没做功课。 特此声明,我只是举嘉利丹为实例,说明何以投资者做不到“低买”,并非推荐投资者买进嘉利丹。提升层次 毕竟现在嘉利丹的股价已直逼2令吉20仙,而不是1令吉20仙了。 如上所说,投资者若无法将自己提升到具有“心法”的层次,岂不是没机会在股市赚钱?(上) 为何没有第二个巴菲特?(下) 2011-06-25 17:54 是的,如果要成为第二个巴菲特,就非有巴菲特的“心法”不可,很少人能达到巴菲特的“心法”水平,所以很少人,甚至没有人可以成为第二个巴菲特。 但是,身为普通人的散户,也不必成为第二个巴菲特,只要能做到每年取得15%复利增长率的成绩,投资30年,到退休时就可以做到“财务自主”,做个有尊严的乐龄人。 身为凡夫俗子,我们只要坚持一些原则,脚踏实地进行投资,不投机,不取巧,就可以取得可观的投资成绩。 财富不能无中生有 这些原则包括: 一定要相信:财富不能“无中生有”,一定要有“价值”作为后盾,才能持久。没有价值的资产,就是“泡沫”,随时会消失。没有价值的股票,有如建在沙丘上的大厦,随时会倒塌。 没有成长的股票不会增值,成长时有时无,甚至负成长的股票价值飘浮不定,股价随之起舞,很难捉摸。 最好的股票,是盈利长期保持稳健成长的公司的股票,稳健但长期成长,胜过高成长但不稳健的股票。成长率不必高,只要年年取得15%以上的成长,就可以成为蓝筹股,值得长期持有。 价值“需要时间去创造,不能一蹴即成。果子需要时间成熟,树木需要时间成长,同样的,生意需要时间去完成。   生意是一种过程,从买原料,制成产品、销售、收账,每个环节都需要时间去完成,需要按步就班进行,绝无魔术可变。 你必须给时间让你所投资的公司去完成这个过程,为你创造价值,故投资宜长期,长期才能累积财富,并无捷径可循,快餐式的投资无法致富,快速致富根本行不通。 长期投资只需看股市大势,不必理会短期的波动,预测短期股市成功的巴仙率很低,不值得去尝试。 股市的运作有如一场球赛,你永远不知道对方会把球打向那一个方向。你不是他,怎么知道他在想什么?做什么?你又怎样能打败对手?参与大马股市的,少说也有400万人,等于有400万种想法。庄子与惠子在濠梁上观鱼,庄子说:河中之鱼悠游自在,所以很快乐。惠子说:“子非鱼,安知鱼之乐?”(你不是鱼,怎么知道鱼快乐?)(庄子“秋水”) 同样的,你只是400万投资者之一,怎么知道其他399万9999名投资者在想什么?股市只看大势即可 又何况世界每一个角落所发生的大事,都可能影响他们的想法,预测他们的动向是白费心机。故股市只看大势即可,不必理会短期波动,大势如潮汐,可以预测,短期波动如波浪,千变万化,根本不能预测。 股票投资,如果要取得大师般的超常成绩,就要有大师“心法”的层次,并非普通人可以做到,作为普通人,只要能取得超越大势的成绩,已属杰出投资者。...

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Why Millionaire Investors are mostly from properties and not stocks?

Just For Thinking … Read? Millionaire Investor Listen carefully to what Warren Buffet said in that video when Richard Holland thanked him. That is the answer why few stock investors can become millionaire. Do you know that answer? After Post add on: Comment by RayNg: “Market is here to serve you, not to instruct you” Warren Buffett said. So we shall use market cycle as investment strategy. Hope that the chart may be helpful for...

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Donkey, Dog, and Monkey years! (2)

May be it is not for Laugh …. Read? Donkey, Dog, and Monkey years! That is reality check!!! Our Life Cycle We all start of as DEPENDENT, later become INDEPENDENT, and finally the curse of old age will bring us back to DEPENDENT (The second childhood) But, the second childhood is hopeless and not hopeful! In our childhood, our parents are seeing HOPE in us. Each passing day, each passing month, and each passing year, our parents are hopeful as they are watching the strength growing in us and expecting better time will be ahead of them. But, in our second...

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Fisher’s Eight Investment Principles

1. Buy companies that have disciplined plans for achieving dramatic long-range profit growth and have inherent quailities making it difficult for newcomers to share in that growth. 2. Buy companies when they are out of favour. 3. Hold a stock until either (a) there has been a fundamentall change in its nature (e.g., big management changes), or (b) it has grown to a point where it no longer will be growing faster than economy as a whole. 4. De-emphasize the importance of dividends. (CW8888: We should be looking at both dividend and dividend payout ratio at the same time,...

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Occam’s Razor in TA and FA? (2)

Read? Occam’s Razor in TA and FA? What is in FA? FIXED Numbers!!! The financial numbers and ratios that are presented at quarterly financial reports or annual report are fixed. You as investors cannot “suka suka” change them. You analyse these numbers and ratios and decide whether you are still comfortable and happy with the reported numbers. Value investing is the way to do it for FA. It is You See What You See. What is in TA? Too many School of Thoughts with too many adjustable parameters. Every TA school claims success, BTW, who lose their money in...

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Full Year 2012 Investment Performance Report

Read? Q3 2012 Investment Performance Report A goal-based investing approach I use a goal-based investing approach by setting a 10-year goals target to achieve for each year from 2012 to 2021. Full Year 2012 Result Achieved 63% of 2012 Goal. Portfolio XIRR Track, measure and visualise – without doing it how to revise investing strategies and improve year-on-year investing performance. My portfolio XIRR includes all investible cash plus the current stocks value at market closing price as on 28 Dec 2012.Since one year ago:2.6% Since 1 Nov 2008: +10.2% Since 1 Jan 2003: +11.5% Since 1 Jan 2000: +10.2% From the...

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Secret behind Uncle8888’s Top Pick: Kep Corp

Just For Thinking … What is the secret behind Uncle8888’s Top Pick: Kep Corp??? Superior Fundamental Analysis??? NO, NO, NO!!! Superior Technical Analysis??? NO, NO, NO!!! Actually, it was ….. Uncle8888 made money from watching LKY’s lips. He said Singapore had too many finance companies! Uncle8888 listened and bought Keppel Finance and Tat Lee Finance. Guess what happened??? Uncle8888 made $XX,XXX when smaller finance companies were taken private and disappeared. Some years later, Uncle8888 made money again from watching LKY’s lips. He said Singapore had too many banks! Uncle8888 listened and bought Keppel Bank. Guess what happened??? Uncle8888 made...

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