Even A Broken Clock Is Right Twice A Day

And even a bear is right every decade. Damnit. With a focus on the US, the scene is set for such sharp declines. Sentiment, allocations, leverage, valuations, money flows and positing are all flagging a major top. The dollar and oil have severely dented the earnings picture. Economic surprises and leading indicators have both moved sharply negative.- John Hampson I've been blowing and blowing … [Read more...]

Oil Bottoming?

You wish. Back in the 2nd week of Jan, I outlined a few things about why I believe that we are not yet at a bottom for oil. With oil higher than it was back then, I still maintain that we haven't seen signs of a bottom yet. The 3 signs that I am are looking for are: USD reversal Outflows from Oil Rig count stabalization I think where we stand on the USD is pretty clear. Almost every … [Read more...]

7 Counters With Fugly Charts

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Anyway, being a contrarian, I love looking at fugly charts. Check out these bad boys if you're feeling up to it. Advanced Holdings is trading at a sexy 30% discount to NAV. Perhaps it is because it is in the petrochemical industry? Based on their recent statement, their past quarter and past year had negative earnings. Tread with caution. I've actually met their COO before and he left a very … [Read more...]

ANZ Optimum 5% Cash Rebate Credit Card Review

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Whoa, check out this new rebate credit card offered by ANZ! 4 main categories of spending - Dining & Leisure, Travel, Shopping and Groceries choose 1 category to get 5% rebate get 1% rebate for the rest of the categories no minimum spend no rebate limit 1st year waiver redemption only in $50 denominations (min spend of $1000 @ 5% rebate category to redeem) expiry of … [Read more...]

Thoughts on the Singapore Property Market

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As a Singaporean living on this sunny island for so many years, I am still perplexed about this insatiable desire and attraction to property, especially for investments. Hell, Singaporeans will even flood and disrupt overseas markets. If no one else can see the glaring double standards with this parallel of Singaporeans using FINANCIAL capital to undercut overseas markets to the HUMAN capital … [Read more...]

Time for Australia to turn around?

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2 leading indicators are flagging oversold and showing signs of improvement. 1 has already generated a buy signal. The other is almost about to. The lagging indicator is about to signal a confirmation with a crossover soon. The last time this happened was mid 2013. I increased the absolute size of my trading account by 140%. Talk about using sick amounts of leverage, amirite? I'm not … [Read more...]

IREIT, you’ve got to be kidding me.

AK just blogged about IREIT and his thought's on it. I've been watching this counter for a while, but I don't feel enticed to even take a nibble yet. Last year before the IPO came out, I wrote a little post about my thoughts on IREIT. I have to admit that my thesis of a weaker German property market is not the cause of the weakness in the counter. Instead, it has to do with the currency … [Read more...]

[STI Statistics] February 2015

Hi all, this is my monthly post analyzing the STI. As of 27 February 2015 STI Closing Value: 3402.86 P/E Ratio: 14.00 P/B Ratio: 1.32 P/CF Ratio: 10.82 Dividend Yield: 2.74% Monthly Data Series from 2008 Mean P/E: 12.22 P/E Standard Deviation: 3.16 Mean P/B: 1.47 P/B Standard Deviation: 0.21 % of time when the STI is cheaper based on P/E: 71.30% % of time when the STI is … [Read more...]

Doing some REIT thinking

Of late, 2 REITs are looking particularly interesting to me based of their fugly ass charts. They are none other than Sabana REIT and Far East H Trust. Sabana REIT is an industrial REIT with an NAV of $1.04, but trading at $0.92, which translates into a discount of 11.5%. Sabana yields 7.6%. Far East H Trust is a hospitality REIT with an NAV of $0.97, but trading at $0.81, which … [Read more...]

[SGX Portfolio] February 2015 Update

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As mentioned previously, this will be my attempt at having a monthly update of my SGX portfolio. I have also updated that page to include the historical growth of my portfolio. I find it personally encouraging to know that at this point last year I had nothing, but now I have accumulated a fair bit. Hopefully other people may be inspired and also decided to embark on their financial … [Read more...]

Confirming My Biased Views

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I have 4 views that I have a particularly strong conviction on, and in this order: US markets are overvalued USD is overbought Gold is undervalued Russian Equities are cheap Now, rather than say anything, maybe I'll let some charts speak for me.  Earnings are declining  USD is up 8 months in a row, something that has never happened since 2002 (2010 had 6 months)  Silver is the … [Read more...]

Am I in a Bearish Echo Bubble?

"Gold: I'm long and adding" The man behind the quote is none other than Steen Jakobsen, the Chief Economist and CIO of Saxo Bank. Usually I don't trust economists, but Steen is a really upfront and smart guy. On top of that, he has been pretty clairvoyant in his views and forecasts. He is also very honest about his previous forecasts, which I find most people are not. I read a piece that he … [Read more...]

The Few Things I’m Looking At Today

The thing that I like about personal finance and the financial markets is that there is perpetually something out there that you have yet to learn. For me, it is about Dividend ReInvestment Plans (DRIPs) or scrip dividend schemes. That is basically shares issued to you in lieu of cash dividends. Now, what are the pros and cons of them? I've known about them before, but until Croesus Retail … [Read more...]

Stock Up 50% in 4 Months. Sell?

The counter that I am talking about is Valuetronics, which I bought in October when there was a spike down in the stock price. Back then, I was scratching my head at the plunge in share price. The share price was below net asset value and their balance sheet is something to be envious about. Almost all their debt is payables (good debt imo) and they have a very high cash balance. They have a … [Read more...]

Technical Analysis Example: Gold

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While my view of the US stock market is ridiculous overvaluation, the other views that I have are: Cheap precious metals Cheap Russian equities Expensive USD I suppose a trade that capitalizes on both of these is buying Gold in USD, which is basically long Gold and short USD. All my bias aside, I believe that we might be looking at a short-term bottom is Gold playing out now or very … [Read more...]

Genting Singapore, Drop and Roll!

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I don't know about you, but the SEA Aquarium is actually one of my most favourite places in Singapore. Truth be told, I've only been there once, but it was awesome. There's something about having a huge fish tank full of fish that is just so tranquil and relaxing. I suppose it is an experience opposite of music and sound. When staring at the fish tank, all you feel is peace and quiet. (Credit: … [Read more...]

The Stock Market =/= Economy (Part 2)

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Again, I needed to remind myself today that the stock market is not the economy. Shiller PE 27.80 — Stalingrad & Poorski (@Stalingrad_Poor) February 24, 2015 Unlike Chairwoman Yellen, I think that the future is bleak. If you've never seen someone doing live impromptu bulls***, you definitely have to watch Yellen's testimony. I cringe hearing her roundabout answers. In Nov, I … [Read more...]

Local Gold Companies?

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Yesterday I only had a half day at work, so I thought I'd write up about these 2 Gold companies that are listed on the SGX. I think a lot of people hear about LionGold (LG) and get a bit anxious and uncomfortable. That's normal, since they crashed along with the other penny stocks, Asiaons and Blumont. Don't worry, I'm not asking you to invest in it. I never knew that there was another gold … [Read more...]

[SGX Portfolio] Thank You Mr. Hock Lian Seng!

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Check out dem recent price moves in Hock Lian Seng! What's going on here? Hmm, I'm not sure, so this is just me thinking outloud. Based on the SGX release of their Jul - Sep 2014 quarters results, we can pull out a bit of things. Net Asset Value is 27.4c. Current Market Value is 38c. This is a premium of 38% of their book value. Market Cap of HLS is based on the total number of shares … [Read more...]

Personal Dilemma on Properties

While surfing around the internet for news, I stumbled upon this article on CNA. In the article, it was stated that smaller shoebox units get typically higher yields of around 3%, while other types of private homes had yields between 2-3%. When I read that, I thought, gosh, owning an investment is huge investment to make, with lots of capital outlay and capital risk, not to mention all the … [Read more...]