Author: Got Money, Got Honey!

Going Nowhere Til We Get Somewhere

Dear Bob had quite a few nuggets of wisdom to share, but I like #4 best, which is: “Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways” Based on capital returns of the SPY as a proxy for the S&P500, capital returns has been a whooping 14.7% annually compounded over the 5 years. Exponential rapidly rising market? Check. Add this to the fact that the S&P500 has been pissing around 2040 and 2140 for the past 6 months, which is an extremely tight range of about 5%. Going...

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Back Up The Truck Boys, This Is It

This chart is from Tiho at ASSOL. Gold miners have been slaughtered and down pretty much 50% in the last 12 months (link to GDX charts). The 10% drop yesterday was spectacular. My total position is probably down about 30% I think, and it is a rather large position. I was buying at -15% 5-year compounded returns, but we’ve been just been drifting lower. Too early maybe? No matter, I’m grabbing my balls and hitting this for another round. I’m increasing my position in the miners by 25%. The 5 year compounded rolling returns of the Philly GSI is...

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Cold Yet Or Not?

  “Eh, cold yet or not?”   “Mmm… like no leh.”   “Orh, then wait lor” ST reports that MAS MD said that “the softening we’ve seen is really not all that much”, “So its still premature to consider removing any of the cooling measures in place”. I don’t really care that much what property experts / industry experts / analysts / your property agent says unless you are telling me that they can affect the outcome of such decisions. Don’t even need to try and guess when they will remove the cooling measures. They haven’t even reached the...

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Singapore Savings Bond starts 1 Oct!

Wa hot hot hot, fresh off the press! As CNA reports, and confirmed by the MAS press release, the issue will begin on 1st October 2015 and applications for it will start 1st September 2015. Personally, I’ll just apply for perhaps $1k worth of the SSB so that I understand how it works and the whole process. The reason why I will not be chionging for as much as I can is because I am sure that there is going to be much better opportunities at hand in the near future. People need to know when and why they...

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Term Insurance: DPI vs non-DPI

Whoa, short hiatus. I was overseas for a short break over this long weekend, but I’m back now! Nothing much has been going on with the markets lately, it’s a pretty big yawn, so gonna talk about some non-market stuff. Since the launch of the CompareFirst website, insurance pricing of simple plain vanilla plans has become a lot more transparent to the consumer. I think this is a good thing because with more information, people who know how to use that information are able to make better decisions. So anyway, I decided to compare between DPI and non-DPI term...

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Housing Boom After Elections?

Pffft, and you guys think that I’m the crazy one with conspiracy theories? Property cooling measures being influenced by elections is just about one of the stupidest theories that I’ve ever heard, and yet every mother son donkey hamster cow chicken keeps repeating it. Also along the same train of thought is that the “gahmen” will give out a lot of “freebies/goodies” when elections are coming to “keep everyone happy”. Apparently this is the type of government that everyone want, giving them kool-aid whenever they want or else they will throw a tantrum. Be a well-behaved sedated farm animal....

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[SGX Portfolio] Dipping toes back into OUE Comm REIT

I exited my position in OUE Comm REIT just very recently because it seemed very fair valued to me, plus I did not want to end up with odd lots, inject a lot of capital and increase my position within my portfolio. For about a year with this investment I made by 7.2% which is rather decent in my opinion. Key numbers are $0.92 which is the pro-forma NAV, $0.81 which is the closing price which helps calculates the TERP of $0.731. I sold off my previous stake at $0.815 which was above the closing price they used, so...

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How Much Lower Can China Go?

Much much much much lower. As “cheap” as I think the China markets are, it isn’t really a “market” if people aren’t allowed to sell. The amount of margin debt is extremely staggering. Until all those farmers go back to work the fields, you can rest assure that it is going to keep on slumping lower and lower and lower and maybe close indefinitely. I still think the long term prospects of China is pretty good, but their crash is far from over in my opinion. The system needs a good flushing out, and while it might be much...

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Struggling Socialist Country Rejects Modern Technology And Embraces Economically Backwards Policies

Viva la France. As the WSJ reports, 3 July 2015, While other countries love to blast how Singapore is so “backwards”, I think many countries should shut their stupid faces before they end up looking…. well, stupid. (Article published by ST on 12 May 2015) Singapore has clearly recognized the existence of such disruptive services and have talked and thought about it. However, people here are on the same page: if the (disruptive) services benefits the commuters and drivers, GO FOR IT. The government’s role is not to protect existing businesses and I am glad that they understand why...

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Gun To Your Head: Buy China or USA?

In a heartbeat, China. Even though this data is not up to date showing the exact values at this point of time, I think it still is a pretty good big picture perspective of valuations around the world. The irony is that because the China market is tanking, people are flocking out of it. What happen to all that crap of “be greedy when others are fearful”? Don’t all these stupid China farmers read Warren Buffett?!? Buy low, sell high. Buy low, sell high. I honestly don’t really know anyone in real life that does that. Everyone I’ve talked...

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Zerohedgey? Feeling Edgey?

I realized my posts of as late has been quite… Zerohedge-y. Which is characterized by being a skeptical critic of the modern financial system, having a huge dislike to Keynesian economics, subtle belief in TPTB, a fetish for gold, and of course, a perma-bear mentality for stocks. The problem is that ZH is actually right most of the time, which reinforces to me that they aren’t that crazy after all. Personally, I feel very uneasy if I haven’t at least screened through the headlines on ZH. I think that they give great news that the main stream media does...

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Refresher on Silver

This is just a link of my old posts because I’ve pretty much said everything already before. Why don’t I only invest in stocks? I think that it is perfectly within reasonable possibility to profit from any asset class, as long as you aren’t going in blind. Why am I buying Silver now? It’s officially the worst bear market for silver since the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market. I like to buy cheap stuff. Why do I think stocks are less attractive than Silver? I believe in mean reversion and based on that, the risk/rewards for silver...

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Just some passing thoughts

For some reason, lately I’m just not feeling excited by the markets. Everything is so… meh. So I’m just going to ramble on a bit on some things on my mind. Personally, I am pretty happy to hear the #Oxi outcome. Who knows what will eventually happen in Europe, but I think this is the first step towards addressing the problem instead of kicking the can down the road. Will they go off course and kick the can down the road? I think it’s actually very probable. I don’t know why people think an exit from the Euro is...

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[STI Statistics] May 2015

Hi all, this is my monthly post analyzing the STI. As of 30 June 2015 STI Closing Value: 3317.33 P/E Ratio: 13.35 P/B Ratio: 1.28 P/CF Ratio: 10.32 Dividend Yield: 2.78 Monthly Data Series from 2008 Mean P/E: 12.28 P/E Standard Deviation: 3.10 Mean P/B: 1.46 P/B Standard Deviation: 0.21 % of time when the STI is cheaper based on P/E: 63.35% % of time when the STI is cheaper based on P/B: 19.14% Comments The P/E and P/B ratios are still telling conflicting stories about the index. Based on P/B, the STI is almost 1SD below it’s mean....

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The Future is the Crowd

This is a video that I’ve seen a few years ago, but I happened to just suddenly casually think about it again and the part that got me really, really interested is from 7.28 onwards. A lot of people are coming out and saying that the future is “big data”, but I think that the future is in the power of crowds. People like to use the word crowdsourcing, but I think that crowd technology is more all encompassing. In the video, the examples he gave about Apache servers, Linux OS and Wikipedia are classic examples of open-sourced collaborations....

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