Author: Got Money, Got Honey!

Oil Is Well?

Oh, punny, isn’t it? Check out this graphic from Zerohedge. The last few times there were 6 times as many Longs and Shorts, Oil prices went lower from there. Did everyone all hurry back into oil all at the same time? Kinda looks like it. I wish my market timing could be that good. Meh, I really want to buy into some O&G counters, but I’m still looking out for the signs of a bottom that I talked about. USD has weakened, but a bounce looks in play for now. Rig count drop is decelerating. But sentiment and positioning,...

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Looking For Some Ugly Ducklings

As per my usual modus operandi, I am constantly on the search for shitty looking stocks. I love to buy when people love to sell. I love to sell it people want to buy it. I’m a psychopath that way. Apsial and Fragrance look pretty darn ugly as a property plays. Unlike it’s peers like Wing Tai and Ho Bee which have recently shot up about 15%, they have been hovering at recent lows. All 3 oil palm planters that I look at, Bumitama, Golden Agri and First Resources are looking decently ugly enough to consider. Indofoods has too...

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COE: Going Higher or Lower?

I read this article recently about COE. I don’t want to toot my own horn, but I feel that I am quite familiar with the car market in Singapore. I ever had a project back in school where we had to predict the following rounds of COE bidding prices. I was a really bad groupmate and my group actually did most of the work on that project. However, that’s when I really understood about the quotas, growth factor, deregistering, etc. All of that has stuck with me. In the article, the author Chris Tan firmly says that he is...

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How Big Is Your Inflation Monster?

 (Shutterstock) One of the biggest fears that financial advisors like to parade around is the “catastrophic effect of inflation eroding away your purchasing power”. In most cases and in most times of our modern history, that has been a good call to action to get people more involved in investing to protect their own wealth. But what if this inflation boogeyman that everybody speak off is just a figment of our imagination? Now, I’m not a COMPLETE idiot. Inflation is a problem and something we should always take into consideration. I’m not saying it isn’t. Inflation is bad because...

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[SGX Portfolio] April 2015 Update

As mentioned previously, this will be my attempt at having a monthly update of my SGX portfolio. I have also updated that page to include the historical growth of my portfolio. I find it personally encouraging to know that at this point last year I had almost nothing, but now I have accumulated a fair bit. Hopefully other people may be inspired and also decided to embark on their financial journey. “The journey of a million miles begins with a single step” Anyway, here are the current stats of the portfolio as of end April 2015. Total Cost    ...

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"My Investment Is Better Than Your Investment"

I will defend my position Personally, I find the degree of stock-worshipping sickly disturbing lately. It seems that the current modern financial wisdom being bought and swallowed by the everyday man is that “long-term stock investing” is the magical holy grail to achieving financial freedom, and all other ways are inferior for X, Y and Z reasons. As Jason Zweig has said before, “Good advise rarely changes”: In summary: Good advise doesn’t change, and reduced to its simplest form, it is essentially: Buy low, sell high. Tune out the market noise, reference past history and look at the long...

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Why Diversify?

Ask Celladon. It’s fun all the way until the last minute when you start to vomit. 12 month returns: +117% 13 month returns: +250% 14.5 month returns: -61% There is very clear mathematical proof why diversification is good for you. However, I also do believe that there is such thing as di-worse-ifying, which is rampant and an excessive fetish for extreme diversifying. After a certain point, diversification has very marginal effects because of diminishing returns. My personal stance is that basic diversification is absolutely necessary, even if you do have a single asset class portfolio. The diversification bonus contributed...

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How Low Can It Go?

Normally, the answer is zero. I just blogged about relooking at Silver to add to my portfolio, but I don’t think people realize what an amazing opportunity Silver is right now. Tiho from ASSOL has came up with a fantastic fantastic analouge of the previous silver bear markets. His main points are that: The 1987-1993 silver bear market looks the longest, but the actual maximum drawdown was in 1991, and silver stayed in the dumps for the next 2 years This makes the current bear market in silver the longest bear market since silver has been freely traded and...

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Silver Sniping

Hey guys, in line with the tin foil hat piece that I wrote yesterday, I just thought I’d write about precious metals too! It’ll be a short post since I’ve actually been very busy recently not being a nerd and having a very happening social life. I’m doing the “if you keep drinking, you can’t get a hangover” trick this weekend. (Mega kick ass bullion charts from BullionStar!) While MOST people look at the prices of precious metals in USD, I think that since we invest in SGD, it is prudent to also look at the value of precious...

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Take Out ‘Em Tin Foil Hats Boys!

Today we take another dip into the Twilight Zone brought to you by me, your curator of our fringe content provider, Zerohedge. The largest sovereign wealth fund in the world, Norway, has comes out guns a blazin’. Slamming central bankers manipulating markets, the obsession on monetary policy and high frequency trading, it’s pretty much the trifecta of conspiracy theories. Steen Jakobsen has come up with another view. I do respect the man immensely for always speaking his mind, rather than conforming to market consensus. Ready for what he thinks? With “zero growth, zero inflation and zero hope”, he thinks...

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[SGX Portfolio] Valuetronics or Expensivetronics? 70% in 6 months!

Wa, really keep going up ar? SELL!!!! I bought Valuetronics almost exactly 6 months (and a week) ago for a fantastic price of just $0.30 a share. From my analysis back then, I thought Valuetronics was an unbelievably flashing buy. I was only hoping that it would go even lower so that I could totally back up the truck. At $0.26, I would be paying $1 for every $1 they had in their bank and getting the entire business free. Just two months ago I did a follow up on Valuetronics again. Share price had gone up to $0.45...

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Twilight Zone: Reality Breaks Down at 0%

The year is 2015. People are looking to lend away their money to make a return. In return for lending the Swiss government your money for 10 years, you will be rewarded with a return of -0.17% per annum. No, there is no need to blink your eyes. It is correct, NEGATIVE 0.17%. (Source: ZH, BlackRock, Reuters) If you have heard of the Stanford Marshmellow experiment and about delaying gratification, you would realize that this scenario is put on all backwards. Instant gratification should be heavily discounted to future/delayed gratification. In other words, instant gratification should cost a whole lot more...

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[SGX Portfolio] 30% in 1 month? GRAB IT AND RUN!

Almost exactly 1 month ago (and 1 day), I took the dumpster dive and jumped into Civmec to mop up the stragglers after it has fallen 50%.Today I sold all my (tiny) holdings which I bought at $0.40 for $0.52, which represents a 30% gain. I am a firm believer that the absolute amount doesn’t matter and my tiny portfolio should be run as if it was a million dollar one. The only question is, is the effort worth the reward? I think it is, because I am still learning. So the percentage gain is what that matters to...

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Higher Price, But Better Value?

AK’s post is a very timely one. A quick summary: QAF was trading at 93c last year, with a PE ratio of 16.6X. Today, QAF traded at $1.14, with a PE ratio of 14.5X, excluding the one off gains. Recently, I have sold off a stock for 5 years of upfront yield. Very rightly so, people have commented to dig deeper into my rationale and decision for selling. I think such a question should have an answer, at least to myself personally, if I do not want to divulge the real reason publicly. However, I have no qualms about...

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Shut Up, the US Recovery is Real

Recently, I have come to know of a prominent bank’s forecast regarding interest rates and also some currency views. It isn’t that hard to find such information these days, many of the banks publicly publish their “Market Outlooks” daily or weekly on their websites, just that it isn’t so obvious to those who are not looking for it. However, I am tried of hearing things by all these “forecasters”. They might as well be fortune tellers with crystal balls, since their consistency and accuracy is about as good as mine – meaning nobody keeps track of it and they...

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