A post from a long-lost blogger

I received another of my Google Adsense cheques just recently, and was frankly quite surprised to get it because I haven't been posting for more than siz months. To be sure, I haven't been active for probably more than 2 years with my hotstocknot picks, as my last few postings were more rants on than anything else. But this shows the quality of my blog, and I'm speaking in all frankness without … [Read more...]

Resorts World Casino – An Analysis

This is meant to be an analysis of the casino demand dynamics --- not the IR. As far as I'm concerned, the centerpiece of both the developments is the casino, and everything else, including the convention centres or Universal Studios, are but secondary. The casinos are meant to subsidise all the other developments, so if they fail, the peripheral IR developments will be in trouble. So there're … [Read more...]

How To Make Money in Stocks Part 7: Pick Low-Hanging Fruit

Allied to this theme is: don't try to understand the whole world! (actually that was the original title, but I thought the low-hanging fruit thing sounds more professional) Actually in my view, investing is a very simple process compared to most other forms of work in the world. Not making money from investing, mind you, but the process in itself. All the talk and academic theories about … [Read more...]

City Developments @ 6.01 (Property/ Singapore)

Main issues Weak sector outlook SOTP valuation is below current price I have been very bearish on property for quite a while, and this latest hotstocksnot coverage shows that I have not lost this pessimism over this sector yet. My recent views over Singapore property are well-documented in my Trendspotting blog article in February titled "Continued weakness in Singapore residential … [Read more...]

The G20 conference

And so, after half a year of waiting, finally the G20 meeting convenes this coming week. Will it be another NATO (No Action Talk Only) meeting ie. an anticlimax yet again? I tend to think that this will come to be seen as a key event in the annuals of financial history, because of a few factors: (1) it has been six months in the making, which gives various participants the time to think things … [Read more...]

Continued weakness in Singapore residential housing

I was thinking which of my blogs I should put this article in and decided that the Trendspotting one is the most appropriate although the article is not highlighting a trend to buy into; rather it is advising against buying into something. Besides, I haven't written in Trendspotting for some time already. There has been pessimism over the property market since mid-2008, and justifiably in my … [Read more...]

Technical Analysis- A somewhat scientific look

I like reading the Review segment of the Straits Times because there are occasionally interesting analysis, and Andy Ho sometimes has interesting articles. This guy writes extensively on a variety of topics ranging from health to science to philosophy to political systems to economics ... all of which interest me (save maybe for health). Saturday's article in ST is the inspiration for this latest … [Read more...]

On Temasek Holdings

I do not often like to comment on political issues too vehemently but sometimes I feel so strongly about certain subjects in which I feel I have a reasonable overall grasp, that I have to blurt it out. Temasek is still a political organisation as of now, no matter their claims about how commercial they are (tell me how commercial you are when the former CDF can go straight from the SAF to Head of … [Read more...]

Developing An Investment Philosophy Part 5

A friend joined a fund management firm recently and was amazed at how the analysts were expected to cover multiple geographical markets simultaneously, since the firm managed several Asia-Pacific funds. How was he supposed to do it, he wondered, since he previously was only familiar with the Singapore market. Indeed, was it even humanly possible for a person to cover many markets at the same … [Read more...]

CapitaCommercial Trust @ 96 cts (REIT / Singapore)

Main issues Rents set to fall Interest expense set to rise Relative yield valuation is not attractive And finally I resume my Hotstocksnot coverage. It has been a turbulent year and I have been so absorbed, enthralled and traumatised by the stock market that I preferred to spend time on my own stockpicking rather than highlighting hotstocksnots. Besides, valuations had plunged and it … [Read more...]

Reflexivity revisited

Let's review the various perspectives about the relationship between stock prices and "business fundamentals" as most people understand it. First, there is the advice given by the Sage of Omaha about Mr Market being manic-depressive and that the prices he/she/it quotes can have a disconnect with underlying fundamentals. Then there is the typical technician's/efficient market theorist's view that … [Read more...]

Stockpicking in a bear market

By: DanielXX Stockpicking in a bear market can be a hazardous business, because going long in deflationary conditions is by definition an attempt to pick a bottom (whether intermediate bottom or long-term bottom) on the stock price. It is easy to be bloodied by the falling knife, especially if one attempts to catch it naked (eg. contra, no ability to hold). One could thus simply choose to avoid … [Read more...]

Structured Products fiasco- What’s reasonable, what’s not

By: DanielXX It is surprising that this storm has still not abated about one month after it initially started following Lehman's failure which ignited so-called "credit events" in many structured products offered around the world, most prominently in Hong Kong and Singapore (I wonder why these two countries in particular). With all due respect to the victims, my conclusion is that in Asia, … [Read more...]

Screening S-stocks

By: DanielXX DanielXX's intro: The below is extracted from the Nextinsight share investors' site, a no-nonsense website whose founders include a former business journalist and a head of a well-known local investor relations agency. The article is written by Sim Kih. The writeup was in turn based on a lengthy JP Morgan report on the dangers of S-stocks. The reason for my highlighting this … [Read more...]

Understanding stock valuation

By: DanielXX To me, understanding valuation, or why the stock is priced the way it is over an extended period, is one of the, if not THE, key risk management method for the stock investor/trader. This is as opposed to the approach of many traders who use technical analysis, momentum trading, cut-loss etc. Indeed, if I may generalise, the upside gains from an investment comes from astute … [Read more...]

My Investing Journey: Hurricane Katrina

By: DanielXX If late-2004 and early-2005 are remembered for the corporate debacles of CAO, Citiraya and ACCS, the later part of 2005 will be remembered for the attention that centered on oil and refining. The catalyst was Hurricane Katrina, which was the worst-ever storm to hit the Gulf of Mexico and caused extensive damage to the refining facilities in the region, exposing the deep global … [Read more...]

How To Make Money In Stocks Part 6: Identify spread divergence

By: DanielXX As a fundamentals-based investor, I am always looking to find bargain buys on the basis of value and I often try to spot trends (see my blog Trendspotting) which could lead to a re-rating of particular stocks. Once one has identified a particular trend, he can find companies which have particular leverage to that trend. A useful framework for finding good companies is identifying a … [Read more...]

What wage-price spiral?

By: DanielXX Inflation is in the air, and Singapore has not been spared. Indeed, as one of the most open economies in the world, we are seen as particularly vulnerable, even a precursor to what the rest of the world will experience several months later due to our lack of subsidies for many common products that typically shield consumers of other countries from immediate price impact. Given … [Read more...]

How much is one billion?

By: DanielXX Not a lot if it is in Zimbabwean dollars (maybe could buy a loaf of bread), but really, are we getting numbed by billions being thrown around, being lost here, being written off there? Is this *gulp* an inflation phenomenon? I guess it is a matter of context. For example, for a bank to write off $1B in the midst of the bull market last year would have been one hell of a shocker, … [Read more...]

The resurgence of Singapore retail

By: DanielXX The subprime crisis and the many malicious tentacles extending from it (the chief one being inflation) have dominated (negative) global attention over the past year but I feel several themes have receded into the background as a result though they still remain compelling stories in their own right. One of them is the remaking of Singapore. Make no mistake, this is one big story … [Read more...]