Author Archive

Posted on March 3, 2010 - by Drizzt

Dividend Investing:It matters when you buy the stock

A question alot of folks ask about dividend stock is that they aren’t realy defensive when a bear market comes along as the share price will still go down. It would be more worth while to sell then buy back at cheaper price.

What do i think of this kind of move? I am all supportive of it, IF you can foretell future events and price movements well.

Lets say you trust your skill in analysis whether it is fundamental or technical. You see that in the future this stock will go down together in a bear market. How well would you fare?

I created a Dividend Stock Simulation Spreadsheet here to illustrate and analyse this.

I chose CapitaCommercialTrust which is a commercial property reit listed on a stock exchange.

Posted on February 11, 2010 - by Drizzt

Singapore Post:Falling Mail Profits may worry

One of the favorite grandfather stock that gives good dividends on a business that is predictable and survives well in recession.

I won’t be doing a full review on this stock but would rather take a look at its nine month operating performance and give an opinion about it.

The key thing for investors looking to invest in it is:
Replacement of Mail Equipment in 2013-2014

Singapore Post would need some 150 mil of capital expenditure to replace their equipments then. The beauty of Singapore Post is that capital expenditure is normally pretty low.

Any business that makes 130mil operating cashflow and needing 10 mil in capex is good business. SingPost have 4 years to come up with 150 mil.

Will they cut their 6.25 cents div because of this? There is a chance but may not be likely.
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Posted on January 24, 2010 - by Drizzt

Net Profit, EBITDA, Operating Cashflow and Free Cashflow in Dividend Investing

On my Dividend Stock Tracker, I favored the ratios with operating cashflow more than using net profit.

By that, I am refering to operating cashflow yield vs earnings yield and dividend yield.

Dividend – the most straight forward. This is what the declared cash payout to the shareholders.

Dividend Yield = Dividend per share for the year/Latest Share Price of Stocks

Many dividend yielders have a dividend policy to payout a certain percentage of their earnings. Read more…

Posted on January 20, 2010 - by Drizzt

Marc Faber:China bust unlikely in near future

Is the Chinese economy is on a bubble? The China bubble is a subject passionately under discussion among business leaders, economic experts, commodity analysts and investors.

Leading investment pundits have been coming out with their predictions on whether China is sitting in a bubble economy or not. Short-sell veteran Jim Chanos recently said that China is another Dubai, sitting in a precarious excess credit circle. Since excessive credit in China is ballooning, it might burst soon, Chanos predicted.

Many investors have panicked ever since Chanos’ forecast that China will crash under unbridled growth without economic fundamentals. A crash in China would mean that commodities markets—the main driver of the Chinese economy—will collapse.

Global commodities investment guru Jim Rogers, who has been a passionate investor in the Chinese market, has hit back saying Chanos does not know the fundamentals of the economy in China. Rogers further blasted Chanos saying people like him who did not know to pronounce the word China some years back are now experts on the Chinese economy.

While Rogers and Chanos are warring on China, let us look at what is another celebrated commentator—Marc Faber—has to say on the China bubble. Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Bloom, Doom report almost agrees with Chanos on the China bubble forecast, not with Jim Rogers. Read more…

Posted on January 16, 2010 - by Drizzt

Trading Log: Yanlord Review

Another new year, another trading mistake. In a bid to get in on a hot property sector rotation, i got in at Yanlord at $2.18. Yanlord have been in  a trading range for a while and the risk is that it will still be in the range for a while. What is working in its favor are earnings releases due soon. Read more…

Posted on December 29, 2009 - by Drizzt

The 3 telcos dividend yield may not look too bright

Had a nice chat with Suan Wei today regarding telcos in Singapore and did some reading up on Verizon, At&T, China Mobile, Vodafone and NTT Docomo’s annual report.

I would like to have this article as  a point of reference for my current view of the future of the 3 telcos.

This is a build on to my Guide on Dividend Investing in Singapore telcos.

i would really like to say that telecom stocks are a good and sustainable business but sadly its got alot of bad economics working against it.

imo currently our most prevalent plan is 40 dollars give u 100 outgoing minues + 500 sms.

the latest data plan gives you 40 dollars => 100 outgoing minutes + 500 sms + 12GB data

in the near future, mobile msging, email and voip will be the main form of communication. it is very possible for the 3 telcos to give unlimited outgoing calls since under the new infra the cost to transmit voice is really low. Read more…

Posted on December 23, 2009 - by Drizzt

A Guide to Dividend Investing in Singapore Telecom Stocks

Photo by Gabriel M.

The thing about dividend investing is that there is no fix rule used to evaluate all dividend stocks. At the end of the day, dividend stocks are still stocks and they are affected by the same rules as all other stocks.

Having more time during this year end break, i thought of checking out some stocks that enables me to hold 30-40% of my portfolio for longer term (compare to my trading portion). The criteria is that

1. I should not have more than 4-5 stocks so that following up with them doesn’t take up all my days and weekends (i still have a day job. I don’t want so much distractions)
2. The stocks should provide a reasonable yield given the low-moderate risk taken to provide steady returns for the portfolio
3. The stocks should hold up to shocks better than the majority of the stocks. Meaning they should fare better in a recessionary environment

To me Telecom stocks listed on the SGX provided just that. Singapore wants to attract foreign investments and wants to be the numero uno in terms of Financial,Business and higher value industry. For that to happen they know that communications and a good IT infrastructure is a must.

The 3 telecoms stocks in Singapore:Singtel, Mobile One and Starhub have pushed the communiations in Singapore to new heights in the past 10 years and for Singapore to be a success tomorrow they will have important roles to play as well.

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Posted on December 15, 2009 - by Drizzt

Trend Watch:Could this be the consolidation? $SPY $EWS

We been talking about a change in long term trend or probably a long overdue correction but  i wonder if the recent non direction will actually be the short term correction that worked off the overbought levels.

SPY Weekly

MACD looks to be going negative soon. But it is highly possible that will resume its MACD uptrend to show positive trend movements. That 200 EMA seems awfully difficult to be taken out. I have a hunch that we are going to higher.

Read more…

Posted on December 13, 2009 - by Drizzt

Trading Log:Olam Review – Wait till i sold of at a profit then congratulate me

This week’s great lesson turn out to be my Olam trade. I entered this trade looking for an upside target of 2.97. It would seem an achievable target as my entry point at 2.69 is near where the trend lines congregate. MACD looks to be putting in a nice cross for some short term uptrend.

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Posted on December 10, 2009 - by Drizzt

Yield Watch:A Substantial fall in SPH. Worth the pick up?

Nothing of note for a day where market continues to be directionless. However, some of you might want to see if you wanna pick up SPH after its 5.7% fall.

Its a drastic gap down on the charts, so much so that it burst the bottom of the price channels. I still don’t get why people buy SPH for yield.The most plausible reason is that pensioners taught this is a garment stocks that will never collapse and provides higher interest rates then what you put in banks. Read more…