TheFinance.sg » Drizzt

KepCorp and SembCorp Ind – Be patient. Wait for the pull back.

Drizzt — Sat, 11 Feb 2012 02:22:10 +0000

If this is a bull there should be a flag. Just not sure how big it will be.

Same for SembCorp. A successful test of moving average follow by a bounce off.

Long Term Market Analysis: Impending correction or resumption of bear?

Drizzt — Sat, 11 Feb 2012 00:23:38 +0000

Drizzt: long term market analysis is a series once or twice a month where we take a look at longer term trends in the market to get our bearings right on the general direction of where market prices is going.

The recent upward move in the STI have not allowed folks who are waiting and waiting and waiting to get into the game.

This sort of feels familiar to past bulls where

the sentiments just cannot be disrupted
good news or bad news will result in the market moving up
a rising tide lifts all boats, pennies or blue chips
the correction is so small that people wait for the bigger drawdown but it just keeps heading up

No one says catching the bottom was easy.

Weekly S&P500 and STI

The long term indicator we use is the cross over between the 17 week EMA and the 43 week …

Oh shit! I missed the stock market rally!

Drizzt — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 15:27:42 +0000

So here is the thing this run up since the end of December have been up and up for 1 month. Many have wanted to add during the correction, but there just wasn’t one.

Reminds me of the bull run from 2009. It teaches you that

in a bull run, the pull backs are small and infrequent
the largest part of the bull run may occur over 10 to 20 days
you underperformed when you couldn’t get leg in fast enough
if you see companies that are valued and with a margin of safety you should systematically own it

My portfolio currently underperforms due to being yield heavy. I am comfortable in this 48% invested position. If the market continues to go up, picking up value stocks that yields should still do well. 50% of my returns will come from dividends.

Having a few “strikers” will lets you keep up …

Dr Doom Nouriel Roubini is bullish!

Drizzt — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 15:06:18 +0000

This could be the ultimate contrarian indicator but when one of the most depressing market watch says this bull has a few months of legs to run, do you listen?

From CNBC.com:

“We’re a believer; we’re celebrating. We think the rally has legs,” explains Gina Sanchez, Roubini’s director of equity and allocation strategy. (She is also a CNBC contributor.)

She tells us that Roubini’s firm currently recommends being overweight equities, playing cyclical areas of the market such as technology. “Also we’d take some tilts into staples and telecom to collect yield. And we’d also be overweight ag and livestock. Generally we’d take advantage of the risk rally.”

She topped off the forecast by adding that investors have months to make money.

Roubini reportedly believes the recent action by the Fed and ECB will continue to make equities an attractive investment over the next few months.

…

Investment Moats Weekly Reads 8 Feb

Drizzt — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 00:44:00 +0000

Here are this week’s reads

Money Management, Portfolio Management

Learning from your own mistakes, framing solutions to combat them in the future [TBP]
Can you sum up your investment philosophy in 10 words? [WSJ]
Health Tips for Traders [Stock Sage]

Technical Analysis, Cycles and Sentiments

How do you know you are in a forgiving market? Be vigilant [Stock Sage]
The 3 stages of a bull market, sentiment wise [Ivan Hoff]
How bullish are Golden Crosses [TBP]
S&P 500 to 1517 according to Peter Brandt [Peter Brandt]

Dividend Investing

A good article on 12% yielding stock in Lee Metal [Next Insight]
The 40 best dividend stocks in the world [Business Insider]
Should large cash holdings be paid out or bought backed? [Aleph]

Personal Finance, Budgeting

The sad plight of Singapore’s fav …

Should you invest your bonus in the stock market?

Drizzt — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 16:39:48 +0000

December to March is usually the period where working people get their yearly bonuses. How do you use your bonus?

Smaller Bonus this Year

This year, most foresee that their year end bonus will shrink.

The two-day poll of 100 people, conducted in both the Central Business District and heartlands, found that the majority of Singaporeans foresee smaller bonuses this year compared to last year.

Almost 75 per cent polled said they believe their bonuses will shrink, which is a prediction seconded by human resource managers.

- SPH

Like wise, I do not expect to receive much special bonus this year. Its likely to remain lower than norm consider the firm is hit with some bad results during the quarters.

Part of the overall compensation

I do see that your annual bonus be part of your overall compensation package. And as such it should be manage as a total annual …

Summing up my Investing Philosophy in 10 words

Drizzt — Sun, 05 Feb 2012 13:00:11 +0000

Can you summarize how you invest in 10 words?

Here’s mine:

Determine price paid versus future cash flows. Optimize portfolio risks.

What’s yours?

David Dreman–Stocks have never been so cheap since 1982, good opportunity to buy

Drizzt — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 21:26:08 +0000

Joe Granville recently predicted DOW to drop by 4000pts. Today I came across contrarian investor David Dreman saying stocks have never been so cheap since 1982

So now we have one that offers a technical take and now David Dreman offers a fundamental take

People currently do not want to be in the market because they think this depression like scenario will continue
Stocks are very very cheap
Low PE, Low PTB and High Yield tend to outperform the markets
Great food, tobacco companies can go out of favor in secular bear which provides a great buying opportunity
His new matrix discussed in the book
1. Diversification important have ever been
2. Small caps will out performed and do better
3. Psychological – The more we like something the more we are willing to pay and up to 100 times earnings
Lessons from 2008 bear
1. If there is a loss don’t buy
2. Financial …

Starhub FY2011 Results–Back to stable cash flow levels

Drizzt — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 19:57:30 +0000

Starhub announced their full year 2011 financial results. Overall, my take is that they got back to pre-iphone competition level of operations. I would not say it is spectacular but rather, the reasons operation wise, why we like Starhub is finally back.

Here are some of my takeaways:

Profitability

Gross profit 4th quarter grew by 15.3%. Considering the handset subsidies costs over the past 2 years, its good to see that growth is maintained.
Gross profit full year grew by 16.3%. Considering past 2 years of competitive landscape, its good to finally see growth overall instead of profit drawdowns year on year.

Business Segments

4th quarter mobile revenue grew by 3.1% and full year mobile revenue grew by 3.1%. A note that mobile revenue is the biggest contributor to the top line.
4th quarter Pay TV revenue grew by 7.5% while full year Pay TV …

Barry Ritholtz on Markets, Strategies and Dividends

Drizzt — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 22:22:28 +0000

Always love to here Barry Ritholtz talk commentary because he teaches you to focus on what you should do when market goes up and down for a longer term basis.

In this video you would see a keen study of

how past secular bear markets are formed
what are the kind of downside risks we are looking at
how much are we risking
evaluating the pain you can take
protecting with dividend growers that benefits from both scenario
no talk about the economy and politics which are most of the time not the most important thing to look at for price movements

Ship Repair is important as a recurring income business segment

Drizzt — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 00:05:00 +0000

ST Marine’s president spoke on the importance of having both ship repair and ship building in one facility:

The ship repair generates recurring revenue, and often at better margins. But in ship repair, you need fast turnaround time, which is not just dependent on they workforce but also on the ability to get spare parts quickly. And because a lot of work has to be outsourced, it is important that a location should have other workshops or yards in existence. Few countries around the world check all these boxes.

[Drizzt is invested indirectly in ST Marine]

Why does ST Engineering, Keppel and Sembcorp need to compete in the same industry

Drizzt — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 00:00:00 +0000

So I was reading The EDGE and in this article profiling ST Marine, it raised an interesting point:

“Recently, ST Engineering began building on its engineering capabilities to develop an environmental engineering business – similar to the ones that Keppel and Sembcorp Industries have.”

What I find it strange is that why does 3 Temasek-linked companies need to fight for the same pie?

Perhaps that is where Singapore’s ONLY capabilities lie. They can only do these kind of engineering work.

Perhaps this pie is big enough and lucrative enough to be gobbled up by all and still earn supernormal profits.

Perhaps they are given a mandate to pursue this by the government.

Another interesting thought…

Investment Moats Weekly Reads 29 Jan

Drizzt — Sun, 29 Jan 2012 13:37:51 +0000

Here are this week’s reads

Money Management, Portfolio Management

5 Traits of highly successful sales people (Inc.)
The advantages of day trading (ppearlman)
20 Common Sense Investing Rules (Reformed Broker)

Technical Analysis, Cycles and Sentiments

5 Indicators that shows it may be a Risk On market (Ivanhoff)

Dividend Investing

Should you pay out dividends or retain cash? How does it affect ROE? (Frankly Speaking)
The case against using simple matrix such as dividend yield and buybacks (Aleph)

Personal Finance, Budgeting

The megatrend seem to indicate fee based independent advisors over brokerage (WSJ)
How an investor will rationalize his cancer treatment alternatives (Asset Builder)

General Trends, Individual Stocks

Explanation what is LTE-Advance (Gigaom)
Why banks and telecoms must merge (strategy+business)
The economics of iPublishing (Atlantic)
How France’s “Free” cell …

First REIT Full Year 2011 Results Stagnating

Drizzt — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 11:40:31 +0000

First REIT this evening announced their 4th quarter and full year 2011 results. Here are some take-aways

Net property income is climbing gradually: 13.0 mil > 13.1 > 13.47 > 13.77
Rental Income climbed in all regions, not just in Indonesia but also for their Singapore and Korea properties
Larger distribution this quarter similar to that of 3rd quarter, as part of the sale of Adam Road property. Total distribution investors will enjoy is 1.93 cents.
This years distribution is 7.01 cents. At 77 cents that is 9.01% yield this year.
Assets continue to increase in fair value.
Debt to property is 16%
Net Debt to Asset is only 9%
Indonesian property values have been rising compare against Singapore properties which are not doing that well.
Korea Hospital is freehold. Based on rental yield it seems the yield is only 4.9% which …

Apple becoming a mega important stock! Can anyone stop them?? $AAPL $GOOG

Drizzt — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 04:55:47 +0000

This morning as I was scanning through my feeds, I have been flooded by some startling numbers from Apple. Basically it was the second most profitable quarter for any company, trailing only Exxon Mobil’s record quarter in 2008 due to the oil price surge.

Now the crazy thing about Apple is that it started off the quarter as a megacap, juggling position with Exxon Mobil as the largest stock in the world by market capitalization. The amazing thing is that its growth rate may still be able to accelerate.

The recent initiatives to move into textbooks on iBook shows that they are building a platform ecosystems that transcends technology into a way of life.

The obnoxious thing is that it’s a closed ecosystem that Google does not want it to be.

As one tech commentator Gina Trapani says, “I prefer Google’s values over their products, and Apple’s products over …

89 year old Joe Granville predicts 4000pts Dow fall in 2 weeks

Drizzt — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 01:05:07 +0000

This is probably the most bearish call I heard in a long time. For someone that experience to go against the market I hope he is right because he sees this rally ending soon and we may get to validate his call very soon

I realize how important frugal is this Chinese New Year

Drizzt — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 15:41:51 +0000

Its Chinese New Year I wish to firstly wish all my readers Gong Xi Fa Chai, Shen Ti Jian Kang, Shi Shi Xun Li!

This year is the year of the dragon. Typically this seems like a good thing since Dragon usually symbolizes prosperity and wealth. Not so. Judging by most accounts, this earth dragon year will be very challenging.

For those born in the year of the monkey this is an average year, and best not to invest in the stock market (!!!)

The worse thing is that health would be bad this year for most.

During Chinese New Year, we usually went house visiting and it’s a time to catch up with friends and family that you seldom meet.

I heard some really good experience, I heard some bad ones.

Most of all being frugal has a lot of upside. One of my uncle got retired in …

A peak into the future of telecom profitability 2012-Singtel, Starhub and M1

Drizzt — Sun, 22 Jan 2012 02:14:06 +0000

Telecom stock’s profitability is affected by technology substitutes, size of capital expenditures and the ability to monetize and fight for market share.

We talk a lot of telecom stocks at Investment Moats, and if you would like to know what I thought about them and their direction take a look at the following articles

Now I thought its time we take a peak again at the future to see if its still rosy for the telecom stocks going forward.

Near term economic moat

Demand

In the near term, telecom …

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