Trading Log: Weekly Strategy

Long Term Weekly Trend: USD From the weekly charts it seems that stochastic is oversold. any move above this region and we might have a revival in USD trends. SPY The recent down trend have mad investors cautious, but stochastic is still at overbought region. it could remain overbought for some time, but at this juncture we could be in for a correction that would take us to the … [Read more...]

Trend Watch: A different kind of Head and Shoulders forming on $SPY?

Good weekend to all. This week was a diffcult trading week where a probable down signal went awfully wrong. I would expect many shortist got hammered pretty badly for this. A head and shoulders top looks to be observed on the SPY and EEM charts however, end of the week surge seem to destroy that pattern all together, thus providing that it is a pattern only if it is completed, otherwise it do … [Read more...]

Still in a bear:Dow Jones Index to Gold Ratio Historical Chart

In the early 1980’s, just before the mega-bull market was about to awaken, you only needed 1.5 ounces of gold. But at the top, in 1999, you needed almost 49 ounces of gold to afford the Dow. Over time, the two don’t always move opposite each other but during the past few years, not only has the stock market fallen, but gold has gone up. That has resulted in an unwinding of the ratio. While … [Read more...]

Annual Report: IFS Capital FY 08

A pretty decent set of results i would say, for a predominately small medium enterprise finance company.Below are the data computed by my Dividend Stock Tracker: Debt actually went down, due to repayment of finance (264mil to 200mil). Both operating cashflow and investing cashflow seems to be better. Operating cashflow benefited from more repayments of  factoring receivables. Still yet … [Read more...]

Annual Report: Macquarie Infrastructure FY 08

Macquarie Released their results and as expected it is a bad year for MIIF. Here is what i inputed and gotten from my Dividend Stock Tracker: Earnings and Revenue have taken a hit. Their earnings, which is highly based on the valuation of their underlying assets were down 196 mil compare to positive 118 mil a year ago. We should be expecting more downside in the current deflationary … [Read more...]

Dividend Aristocrats: There are still good dividend plays out there

One of the differences between my dividend screens and others is perhaps looking at yield at the end of everything. This economic downturn have hit home the point that investing in dividend companies are not that safe and out-performing as I imagine. The Dividend Aristocrats is abit different. They are the stocks that managed to raised their dividends for 20 years or more. Expanding dividend … [Read more...]

Living on less for next year [Personal Finance]

It is coming to the end of another eventful year and i hope every one had enjoyed their 2008 and looking forward to 2009. I certainly have. Work wise i manage to engage in a completely different scope compared to a year ago. Been to South Africa and Taiwan this year. Taiwan was tiring, i think my trip to South Africa looks better managed then the Taiwan trip. The Financial crisis was … [Read more...]

Adam Hamilton: Cyclical Bear Market Rally Ahead

I tune in to Adam Hamilton once in a while just because his analysis is in-depth and provides the form of data modeling that i can never do. This week he analyzes the stock market volatility that we have been experiencing for 4 months and how it measures up. This picture gives you a good idea just in case you were too busy during this 4 months to realise the carnage that has swept the … [Read more...]

Courage Marine 3rd Quarter Announcement

By: Drizzt As expected the result was abit chui. The subsequent quarters will really reveal the mantle of this management. Unpredictable rates will definately create big challenges for the management. However, on the positive note, it also presents a good opportunity for the management to replenish its aging fleet. Revenue fell 25% while expense stayed relatively the same.(Freight rates … [Read more...]

Realization and Lesson Learnt

By: Drizzt Never will i realize that i will learn in 2 months what i expect that i will learn in my 4 years in the market. In 2 months, the S&P500 fell 32%. Truth to be told, that is a very respectable figure, compare to what emerging market countries’ indices are facing. Numerous emerging market indices are down 60-70% from their peak last year, and a whole chunk of it happen to be in … [Read more...]

Weekly Roundup and possible next shoe to drop

By: Drizzt Another difficult working week, another difficult stock market to navigate. My portfolio have been taking a fair bit of the blunt lately and so far it has bled 15% in all. Quite a small figure compare to the broad market carnage but its understandable consider i am 50% vested right now. The bailout package have been passed and numerous economist have commented that its bad. But … [Read more...]

Why Courage Marine is falling

By: Drizzt Readers would have note that Courage Marine and many of the dry bulk shipping counters were badly affected these few days. Courage marine fell to 21.5 cts as of latest closing. Courage Marine is tracked here at my Dividend Stock Tracker. Sure the overall market was badly affected sentiment wise by the news of Lehmen, Merrill Lynch and AIG but then the Baltic Index wasn’t doing … [Read more...]

Financial Results

By: Drizzt Courage Marine 2nd Quarter Results The first company i am covering is Courage Marine. despite the fall in Baltic Dry Shipping Index, results have been pretty strong. Profit for the period improved by 67% from the previous year. Operating cashflow generated was 20 million vs 7.8 million from previous year. Read more... Food Junction 3rd Quarter Results This company, which … [Read more...]

Preventing Investment Mistakes: Ten Risk Minimizers

By: Drizzt Most investment mistakes are caused by basic misunderstandings of the securities markets and by invalid performance expectations. The markets move in totally unpredictable cyclical patterns of varying duration and amplitude. Evaluating the performance of the two major classes of investment securities needs to be done separately because they are owned for differing purposes. Stock … [Read more...]

SPC: Singapore Petroleum Corporation second quarter results

By: Drizzt Just got wind from Maki that SPC have just released their second quarter results. so how did they fair? Revenue Growth was 64% However, net profit grow by only 0.5% Compare to previous year cash position was drastically reduced to 290 mil from 475 mil However, what has increased are derivative instruments from 7 mil to 64 mil Increase in operations have caused … [Read more...]

ST Engineering: Might not be as cheap as you think

By: Drizzt Readers from SGFunds would have notice that in one of the topics i did my usual rant on things that gets me frustrated. I am vested in ST Engineering and not in the usual way since I have company units in there. And pretty much this would explain a huge portion of why i am so pissed off with the recent share price fall. Units are link to share price and its a bit like DCA into … [Read more...]

Orient Century undervalued?

By: Drizzt I haven’t check out some companies that i analyzed in the past, possibly due to work and not giving a damn about finding companies for a couple of months. Thats when i really felt in the mood to look for something to buy should the market snap back. I notice Orient Century again. Back some time ago, I analyzed the full year earnings of Orient Century, and i state that it has a … [Read more...]

Timber Investing

A two part mini-series on Timber Investing. By: Drizzt Timber Agg 1: Introduction to Timber Investing Here we at Investment Moats, we hope to to discover good asset classes or instruments that are obscure to most investors, especially Singaporean Investors.I first heard about timber sometime back but didn’t really follow up on this since I thought this is just another agriculture. Little did … [Read more...]

Pimco’s Bill Gross: Fooling With Inflation

By: Drizzt This is not the first time that i posted an essay by Bill Gross. Why do i post so much article on the man? I admire him for his profound commentaries on the market. Sometimes it gets so profound that i need to reread what he wrote a few times just to get what the heck he is trying to say. At the same time, it is interesting to listen to what the world’s largest bond fund manager … [Read more...]

Why Index Investing Isn’t Passive Investing

By: Drizzt An important article as a reminder that proponents of index investing painted alot of advantages of it over active investing. However, the main advantage that i see is drastically low annual cost compare to active funds. If you buy and hold indexes, your returns will depend on how well the index does, which eventually means that index investing != better returns. In the debate … [Read more...]