Author: Ernest Lim's investing blog

What lies ahead for this week? Bull or Bear?

Last week, Asian stocks posted their sixth weekly gain, the longest winning streak since 2010 amid a dovish Federal Reserve and optimism that Greece would successfully negotiate a deal with the private creditors. STI has surged 10.2% or 270 points year to date (STI closed at 2,646 on 30 Dec). On the charts, it is likely that STI may go higher early this week and challenge the gap 2,943 – 2,974 (formed on 5-8 Aug 2011) due to two possible factors viz. a) Greek debt talks crystallised and an agreement is formed; or / and b) China eases its...

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Review on previous post on stocks trading at 1-7x Next Year PE

With ref to my previous compilation of companies trading at less than 7x PE using Bloomberg data as of 28 Dec http://ernestlim15.blogspot.com/2011/12/companies-trading-at-2x-3x-4x-7x-next.html , I have attached the table below which incorporated their stock prices on 13 Jan (price as of around 4pm.) Notwithstanding the sharp 5.5% appreciation in the STI index since the start of the year, 64% of the stocks compiled in the table have outperformed the index.   Name Adj Mkt Cap ($) Last Price ($) Ave Analyst px ($) Potential capital gain Est 12M Div Yield (%) 52 wk high ($) 52 wk low ($) Nx...

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U.S. Earnings announcement 13 Jan 2012 – 31 Jan 2012

Company Name Date *Confirm / Estimated Time Period Estimate JPMorgan Chase & Co 13/1/2012 C 20:00 Q4 2011 0.903 McMoRan Exploration Co 17/1/2012 C Bef-mkt Q4 2011 -0.105 M&T Bank Corp 17/1/2012 C Bef-mkt Q4 2011 1.52 Citigroup Inc 17/1/2012 C 21:00 Q4 2011 0.53 Wells Fargo & Co 17/1/2012 C 21:00 Q4 2011 0.72 Cree Inc 18/1/2012 C 5:00 Q2 2012 0.259 TD Ameritrade Holding Corp 17/1/2012 C Q1 2012 0.258 Northern Trust Corp 18/1/2012 C Bef-mkt Q4 2011 0.677 Charles Schwab Corp/The 18/1/2012 C Bef-mkt Q4 2011 0.131 US Bancorp 18/1/2012 C Bef-mkt Q4 2011 0.635 Bank...

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Top five things to watch out for in 2012

Top five things to watch out in 2012   Time flies. 2011 had flown by in a twinkling of an eye. Nevertheless it is unlikely to be forgotten as there are several rare occurrences (or may I say, “black swan events”) in 2011.Last year saw half a dozen eurozone governments collapsing, Japan being hit by one of the five most powerful earthquakes in the world since 1900 triggering a triple disaster (tsunami, nuclear and earthquake) and U.S. losing its triple AAA standing since 1941. Thus, it is an understatement that 2011 is a dull year.   2012 has come...

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Companies trading at 2x, 3x, 4x … 7x next year PE

Name Adj Mkt Cap ($) Last Price ($) Ave Analyst px ($) Potential capital gain Est 12M Div Yield (%) 52 wk high ($) 52 wk low ($) Nx Year P/BV (x) Nx Year PE (x) Eratat Lifestyle 50.3 0.106 0.330 211% 5.4 0.270 0.099 0.5 1.4 Yamada Green Res 69.1 0.170 0.320 88% 4.8 0.365 0.155 NA 1.7 Kinergy Ltd 12.8 0.100 NA NA 10.0 0.160 0.100 NA 1.7 Sinopipe Hlds 38.3 0.150 0.450 200% NA 0.300 0.139 NA 1.7 Sunvic Chemical 259.9 0.440 NA NA 4.5 0.860 0.435 NA 1.7 Hu An Cable Hlds 92.2 0.107 0.360...

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Europe – Finally, light at the end of the tunnel?

The recent European Union (“EU”) Summit has been hailed as the most important event in years. Preceding this EU Summit, there are experts who stated in late November and early December that the European Currency (“euro”) has at most 10 days to survive. For example, EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn commented on late November that “they are now entering the critical period of 10 days to complete and conclude the crisis response of the European Union”. French President also commented before the EU Summit that failure to reach an agreement is a luxury that they cannot afford. He...

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Pavilion Reit IPO – things you should be aware

It has been sometime since I last updated my blog as I have been busy attending results briefing during the recent results season. Some of my clients have asked me on this Pavilion Reit IPO and I have summarized the pertinent points on this IPO in this writeup. Pavilion Real Estate Investment Trust (“Pavilion Reit”), a Malaysian shopping mall trust is seeking a listing in Malaysia by December this year. It intends to raise approximately 700m ringgit (RM700m) by offering 790m new shares at an indicative price of between 88-90 sen per share. Here are some useful share statistics...

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U.S. corporate results calendar below for 31 Oct to 30 Nov

Dear all,   Personal compiliation of U.S. corporate results calendar below for 31 Oct to 30 Nov. The data is sourced from bloomberg, correct as on 28 Oct 11. Company Name Date *Confirm / Estimated Time Period Estimate HCP Inc 31/10/2011 C Bef-mkt Q3 2011 0.664 Humana Inc 31/10/2011 C 18:00 Q3 2011 2.031 Shaw Group Inc/The 31/10/2011 C 20:00 Q4 2011 0.566 Allstate Corp/The 1/11/2011 C 4:05 Q3 2011 0.09 General Cable Corp 31/10/2011 C Aft-mkt Q3 2011 0.711 Cavium Inc 31/10/2011 C Aft-mkt Q3 2011 0.264 Leap Wireless International Inc 31/10/2011 C Aft-mkt Q3 2011 -0.787 SM Energy...

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Key takeaways from Hu An Cable’s 1-1 Meeting with CFO

Hu An Cable Holdings Ltd (“Hu An”) is one of the top ten integrated cable and wire manufacturers[1] in China. Based on the accumulated results from 2Q2010 – 1Q2011, Hu An’s is ranked top four by revenue among seven listed firms in China. In addition, according to my personal compilation of 14 listed peers in Taiwan and China, Hu An has the lowest FY10 PE and highest ROE. Against the backdrop of the positive mid – long term industry prospects, I have arranged to meet Hu An’s CFO Sharon Xue for a 1-1 discussion. Below is an abridged version...

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Personal compiliation of U.S. corporate results calendar (17-21Oct)

Dear all, Personal compiliation of U.S. corporate results calendar below. The data is sourced from bloomberg, correct as on 13 Oct 11. Company Name Date *Confirm / Estimated Time Period EPS Estimate McMoRan Exploration Co 17/10/2011 C Bef-mkt Q3 2011 -0.163 Charles Schwab Corp/The 17/10/2011 C Bef-mkt Q3 2011 0.191 Gannett Co Inc 17/10/2011 C Bef-mkt Q3 2011 0.441 First Horizon National Corp 17/10/2011 C Bef-mkt Q3 2011 0.161 Citigroup Inc 17/10/2011 C 20:00 Q3 2011 0.822 Wells Fargo & Co 17/10/2011 C 20:00 Q3 2011 0.722 VMware Inc 17/10/2011 C Aft-mkt Q3 2011 0.495 International Business Machines Corp...

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My interview with Business Times

Dear all, I was recently interviewed by Business Times. The interview was published today. Do refer to the article below. Campus Life   Published September 26, 2011 STARTING YOUNG Inspired by a soap opera (Business Times, 26 Sep 11) Ernest Lim knew he wanted to be an investor at the age of 21, reports DOLLY CHIA OBTAINING his Chartered Financial Analyst or CFA certification at a tender age of 28, Ernest Lim says he is currently getting 10 to 20 per cent returns from his investment capital every year. Mr Lim: ‘Sometimes we need to make mistakes in order to...

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Top Dividend Yielding Stocks in the Singapore Market

Dear all, I have compiled the dividend yielding stocks using my personal criteria. Data is correct as on 22 Sep 11. Short Name Cur Last Price Analyst Consensus Px Chg from consensus TP 52 Wk High 52 Wk Low Adj Mkt Cap (S$m) 2012F PE 2011F Div Yield Potential (cap gain + div yield) First Ship Lease SGD 0.30 0.43 45.8% 0.49 0.27 193.1 229.0 17.0% 62.8% Cityspring Infra SGD 0.40 0.44 12.6% 0.60 0.39 600.0 NA 13.2% 25.9% Macquarie Intl SGD 0.50 0.62 24.7% 0.63 0.50 633.5 NA 11.0% 35.7% Elec & Eltek USD 2.98 4.38 47.0% 4.00...

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Key takeaways from 1-1 Management Meeting with China Animal

Late last year around December, China Animal[1] (“CAL”) has been quite a “hot” stock where daily volume surged more than 10m shares for 12 out of the 23 trading sessions in December. Its share price also hit a record intraday high of $0.425 since its reverse take over of Colorland Animation Limited on 29 Dec 2007. However, excitement over the stock fizzled off and its share price has dropped 31% year to date. CAL has also been keeping a low profile for the past few months. It was indeed fortuitous that I have the chance to meet CAL’s management,...

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Top dividend yielding stocks in Singapore

Dear all, I have compiled the dividend yielding stocks using my personal criteria. Data is correct as on 7 Sep 11. Short Name Cur Last Price Analyst Consensus Px Chg from consensus TP 52 Wk High 52 Wk Low Adj Mkt Cap (S$m) 2012F PE 2011F Div Yield Potential (cap gain + div yield) Cityspring Infra SGD 0.40 0.44 12.6% 0.60 0.39 600.0 NA 13.2% 25.9% Technics Oil & SGD 0.86 1.29 50.3% 1.05 0.73 189.6 7.6 11.1% 61.4% Elec & Eltek USD 2.98 4.38 47.0% 4.00 2.64 675.2 6.5 10.9% 57.9% Macquarie Intl SGD 0.53 0.62 18.7% 0.63...

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Eratat Lifestyle – 1HFY11 Net Profit surged 94%; Stock trades at 2xFY11F PE

Eratat Lifestyle[1] reported a sterling set of 1HFY11 results for the period ended 30 June 2011. 1HFY11 sales and net profit surged 25% and 94% respectively to RMB523m and RMB90m. Gross margins have held steady above 30%, in line with management guidance. However, its share price only showed a positive one day response to the results before resuming its precipitous downward decline. Year to date (“ytd”), Eratat share price has declined 44%. To put this in perspective, STI and FTSE China Index’s ytd performance fell about 14% and 27% respectively. Besides the lackluster equity markets and the weak market...

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