Author: Investment Moats

Trading Log: Review of Ascendas REIT

Granted that i would have made more if i had held on till a few days later compared to the 1.76 that i got out at, it is a right thing to do for an amateur still learning the ropes. the key here is to be discipline rather than give in to the temptation of dream profits. I saw a nice channel trade in the making and i took the plunge at 1.65. This would only consider as a C trade as i only milked 6% of profits. had i used a smaller capital i would have made peanuts...

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Trading Log: Weekly Strategy

Long Term Weekly Trend: USD From the weekly charts it seems that stochastic is oversold. any move above this region and we might have a revival in USD trends. SPY The recent down trend have mad investors cautious, but stochastic is still at overbought region. it could remain overbought for some time, but at this juncture we could be in for a correction that would take us to the 26 week or 50 week ema. Read...

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Trend Watch: A different kind of Head and Shoulders forming on $SPY?

Good weekend to all. This week was a diffcult trading week where a probable down signal went awfully wrong. I would expect many shortist got hammered pretty badly for this. A head and shoulders top looks to be observed on the SPY and EEM charts however, end of the week surge seem to destroy that pattern all together, thus providing that it is a pattern only if it is completed, otherwise it do not mean alot. However, if we exptrapolate on the weekly charts there seem to be a big bottom forming ala the reverse head and shoulders. this...

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Still in a bear:Dow Jones Index to Gold Ratio Historical Chart

In the early 1980’s, just before the mega-bull market was about to awaken, you only needed 1.5 ounces of gold. But at the top, in 1999, you needed almost 49 ounces of gold to afford the Dow. Over time, the two don’t always move opposite each other but during the past few years, not only has the stock market fallen, but gold has gone up. That has resulted in an unwinding of the ratio. While the Dow Jones Industrial has only fallen 25% from its 1999 top, priced in gold, it has fallen almost 80%. We’re back to the...

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Annual Report: IFS Capital FY 08

A pretty decent set of results i would say, for a predominately small medium enterprise finance company.Below are the data computed by my Dividend Stock Tracker: Debt actually went down, due to repayment of finance (264mil to 200mil). Both operating cashflow and investing cashflow seems to be better. Operating cashflow benefited from more repayments of  factoring receivables. Still yet to determine if this is a good thing. Investing Cashflow benefited from sale of investments net of purchases. They are expected to be profitable in 2009, according to their description. I see it that companies are desperate for short term...

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Annual Report: Macquarie Infrastructure FY 08

Macquarie Released their results and as expected it is a bad year for MIIF. Here is what i inputed and gotten from my Dividend Stock Tracker: Earnings and Revenue have taken a hit. Their earnings, which is highly based on the valuation of their underlying assets were down 196 mil compare to positive 118 mil a year ago. We should be expecting more downside in the current deflationary cycle. Operating Cashflow is down to 96mil but they are operating in the kind of business that they will at least have cashflow since their business is suppose to be the...

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Dividend Aristocrats: There are still good dividend plays out there

One of the differences between my dividend screens and others is perhaps looking at yield at the end of everything. This economic downturn have hit home the point that investing in dividend companies are not that safe and out-performing as I imagine. The Dividend Aristocrats is abit different. They are the stocks that managed to raised their dividends for 20 years or more. Expanding dividend payments isn’t the end of story. My initial thoughts is: Having a stock that is low growth but high-yield is equivalent to one that is low yield and reasonable growth. I think that opinion...

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Living on less for next year [Personal Finance]

It is coming to the end of another eventful year and i hope every one had enjoyed their 2008 and looking forward to 2009. I certainly have. Work wise i manage to engage in a completely different scope compared to a year ago. Been to South Africa and Taiwan this year. Taiwan was tiring, i think my trip to South Africa looks better managed then the Taiwan trip. The Financial crisis was expected. The fall out was expected. What i didn’t expect is the massive fall in oct-nov. That really makes me understand my risk appetite and the strategy...

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Adam Hamilton: Cyclical Bear Market Rally Ahead

I tune in to Adam Hamilton once in a while just because his analysis is in-depth and provides the form of data modeling that i can never do. This week he analyzes the stock market volatility that we have been experiencing for 4 months and how it measures up. This picture gives you a good idea just in case you were too busy during this 4 months to realise the carnage that has swept the financial markets. Adam seems to think based on all these, we should be expecting a big bear market rally: Read...

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Courage Marine 3rd Quarter Announcement

By: Drizzt As expected the result was abit chui. The subsequent quarters will really reveal the mantle of this management. Unpredictable rates will definately create big challenges for the management. However, on the positive note, it also presents a good opportunity for the management to replenish its aging fleet. Revenue fell 25% while expense stayed relatively the same.(Freight rates plunging no?) Profit for the quarter fell 57% from  USD 20 mil to USD 8.6 mil Balance sheet stayed relatively the same Operating Cashflow fell by 50% Group turnover fell 25% in 3Q08 to US$18.2 million from US$24.2 million in...

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Realization and Lesson Learnt

By: Drizzt Never will i realize that i will learn in 2 months what i expect that i will learn in my 4 years in the market. In 2 months, the S&P500 fell 32%. Truth to be told, that is a very respectable figure, compare to what emerging market countries’ indices are facing. Numerous emerging market indices are down 60-70% from their peak last year, and a whole chunk of it happen to be in these 2 months. My portfolio is down by half that. This can be attributed to being 50% in cash all these time. Nevertheless, it...

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Weekly Roundup and possible next shoe to drop

By: Drizzt Another difficult working week, another difficult stock market to navigate. My portfolio have been taking a fair bit of the blunt lately and so far it has bled 15% in all. Quite a small figure compare to the broad market carnage but its understandable consider i am 50% vested right now. The bailout package have been passed and numerous economist have commented that its bad. But i gotta remind folks here that without that bailout, it can be much much worse! the entire credit market has freeze up! Even interbank lending in Singapore is jumping to an...

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Why Courage Marine is falling

By: Drizzt Readers would have note that Courage Marine and many of the dry bulk shipping counters were badly affected these few days. Courage marine fell to 21.5 cts as of latest closing. Courage Marine is tracked here at my Dividend Stock Tracker. Sure the overall market was badly affected sentiment wise by the news of Lehmen, Merrill Lynch and AIG but then the Baltic Index wasn’t doing very well either. Hard Asset Investor Wrote in this article explaining more of this: The last time we looked at shipping was all the way back in April. At the time,...

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Financial Results

By: Drizzt Courage Marine 2nd Quarter Results The first company i am covering is Courage Marine. despite the fall in Baltic Dry Shipping Index, results have been pretty strong. Profit for the period improved by 67% from the previous year. Operating cashflow generated was 20 million vs 7.8 million from previous year. Read more… Food Junction 3rd Quarter Results This company, which i thought was a gem when i started investing 4 years ago, have been stagnating or even deteriorate during the past 4 years. ROIC and Margins were decreasing but the biggest problem have been execution in overseas...

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