Author: BULLy the BEAR

Important realisation

By: La Papillion Buffettology is really a good book. I think I’m going to get this book for sure, as I think I’ll re-read 12 times. I made an important realisation when I’m a quarter into the book. This realisation is handy to quickly get a rough value of a business entity that sounds promising. First of all, I need to assume 2 things: 1. When I buy shares of a company, I am a partial owner of the business entity, hence I’m entitled to get a part of the earnings generated by the entity. Hence, EPS (earnings per...

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Monopoly rules – Milind Lee

By: La Papillion Monopoly Rules by Milind Lee was a book that I completed reading last week. I didn’t have time to publish what I thought about this book last week, so this is a bit long overdue. In a nutshell, I think this book is very interesting. The author talks about the wrong focus on SCA (sustainable competitive advantage) whereas they should first focus on whether their business have a monopoly. Let me explain. Monopoly, according to the book, isn’t exactly the definition that text books gave. To state it simply, Monopoly is an ownable space for a...

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Successful Value Investing in Asia – Tony Measor

By: La Papillion I’ve not done a book review for some time, but this book that I read beckons me to review it, so that I can share with more people and also that I can remember the lessons taught. This book that I’m talking about is: Successful Value Investing in Asia – 10 timeless principles by Tony Measor. To be frank, I saw this book from major bookstores before but I rubbished it away. Perhaps in the past I saw this book with a different light than what I saw now. When I finished reading it yesterday, I...

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Civil engineering vs value investing

By: La Papillion Oh my, how time flies…Friday already and another week gone by. As KK would have said, only left XXXX weeks more to go :) I realised I didn’t blog much this week, so since I have both the energy and the time to do it now, I shall try to post some thoughts that are in my mind. It’s about margin of safety. I did civil engineering before, so the concept of margin of safety isn’t new to me, except that it wasn’t known in the engineering jargon as margin of safety – it’s called factor...

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I lie to statistics!

By: La Papillion Didn’t know that my post on ‘Statistics lie!’ generated quite a healthy discussion on what is fair and what is not. My aim of the post is to highlight the fact that statistics are used to show and highlight what the person intends to say – or to add weight to what had already been said. As such, there really is no fair way to represent statistic without the risk of misleading someone. Though I say that, there are plenty of ways to confuse and obfuscate the casual reader and it is these that we must...

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Yongnam clinched S$70 million contract in Delphi

By: La Papillion Yongnam announced a contract stating that they won a S$70 million structural steel contract in Delphi. The contract is to build Delphi international airport terminal building and is expected to have favourable material impact on FY2008 earnings. This contract is significant not only because of its size, but more because of the significance of breaking into a new market – India. Read...

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Ecowise

By: La Papillion Time to read more about Ecowise. Was quite disappointed with their investor relations since their website only provided 2 years worth of financial statements (which is the same for sgx announcement website) and one of the statements is actually truncated off. Looks like I have to rely on bits and pieces of information. Let’s take a look at a few figures first. FY04 and FY05 have net losses. We’ll just see the latest three years to take note of the trend in the metrics. ———————————–FY05———–FY06———–FY07 COGS (% to revenue)——-65.7%———-46.7%———-43.9% Gross margin——————34.3%———-53.3%———-56.1% Net margin——————-(-11.2%)———18.9%———-22.5% Financial leverage————-1.7—————-1.6————-1.7 Asset...

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FJ benjamin

By: La Papillion Since I did Ossia, I might as well do a little analysis on FJbenjamin too. This have a similar business to that of Ossia of retail. FJben sells watches, apparels and have a 30% stake in St.James power house too. Flipping their annual report for FY07, this is what I see: Turnover increases at a CAGR of 25.0% from 2003 to 2007 Net earnings increases at a CAGR of 94.8% for the same period. ———————2003——-2004——-2005——-2006———2007— Operating margins—1%———-2%———2%———-7%———–8%—- ROE (%)————-2%———-3%———6%———-11%———11%— EPS (cents)———-0.52——–0.70——–1.50——–3.53———-5.07– COGS as % to revenue————————————-59.0%——-59.2%– Gross margins———————————————41.0%——-40.8%- Net margins (with exceptional items)———————-5.4%———-8.3%– Net margins (without...

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Book review on “The Ultimate Dividend Playbook” by Josh Peters

By: La Papillion Here are my thoughts for the book that I finished reading, titled “The Ultimate Dividend Playbook – Income, Insight and Independence for Today’s investor” by Josh Peters. This is another excellent series from Morningstar group. I really really love their clarity and ample use of examples to illustrate the point. This is one of those books that I would love to keep. Probably will buy it, together with another of Morningstar’s series, “The five rules for successful stock investing” by Pat Dorsey. Perhaps it’s because I don’t have much background in accountings and finance, hence the...

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CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate)

By: La Papillion Today I learnt much about CAGR. No, it’s not a new brand of cigar. CAGR stands for compound annual growth rate. It’s a nifty mathematical formula to calculate the rate at which an investment grows linearly in a given period. It all springs from the basic future value/present value equation: Future value = Present value x (1 + i)^(t) where i – interest rate compounded per per year where t – time in years Appropriate adjustment can be made if the compounding period is less than a year. Just change the appropriate figure for the time....

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Singpost 3Q results released (30 Jan 2008)

By: La Papillion Singpost posted its 3Q results today. In summary, Q3 revenue grew 9.2%, net profit rose 7.8% and a dividend of 1.25 cts per share is declared, which is the norm. 3Q is traditionally the busier quarter for singpost, so the increase in revenue is nothing to be extremely proud of. Business as usual I suppose. What is a little worrying is that despite the rise in revenue in a variety of sectors, the cost increment is higher, hence the margins got eroded slightly by less than 1% comparing between FY07/08 3Q and FY06/07 3Q. A huge...

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Detailed fengshui analysis for the Earth Rat year

By: La Papillion My special guest blogger, skyalps, wrote this summary of the fengshui analysis by Raymond Lo for the year 2008. Thanks pal, for the great summary on what to expect. Do your own analysis and research before committing your money, as always. Personally, I found the talk quite interesting as I had little prior knowledge of Fengshui and Chinese Astrology. However, I noted that the examples he gave were typically those that had already happened and which he could use his analysis to explain why it happened. Therefore, do read it with a pinch of salt as...

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Buy and hold forever?

By: La Papillion HH passed me an excellent article on buying and hold fallacy which I linked it here. The idea of buying and holding is what long term investors would like to do. Before anyone just go to the stock market and buy anything stocks, and proceed to hold it forever, I think here’s a few pointers to take note: 1. Buy and hold works good for companies which are fundamentally sound. I think before you adopt the buy and hold strategy, you must decide whether the company will still be around for long and whether the company...

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Review on “The Dividend rich investor – Building wealth with high-quality, dividend paying stocks”

By: La Papillion I finished reading the dividend book…managed to complete reading it in a day. I never knew I could squeeze so much time if I had to, though it is quite tiring. These are the few things I thought it’s important: 1. Instead of calculating % yield (formula: dividend for whole yr/current market price of stock), we can calculate the % yield relative to cost price (formula: dividend for whole yr/price at which you buy). This means that after you buy the stock, the share price will not change anymore. 2. It is possible for the dividend...

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SGX: New Bid Size on Monday 24.12.07

By: La Papillion Just a reminder that on Monday, the new bid size system will come in place. I’m still wondering what kind of impact it will do to traders here. Ccloh from cna forum had analyzed it very nicely, so I’d like to share it here: Advantages ————- 1. for less than $3 stocks, the bid size is as usual but good thing is now you can queue 10-bid lower or higher to buy or sell. example dumpling close 1.59, you can queue 1.50 to buy or queue 1.69 to sell on monday before open. isnt that good....

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