Author: (The) Boring Investor

Could We Afford a Freehold Property?

As mentioned in last week’s blog post, Areas Where We Saved for Our House Purchase, we were looking for a condominium somewhere in between where our parents stay. The area that we looked at has only 99-year leasehold condos. Since leasehold properties have to be returned to the government after the lease expires, we wondered, out of curiosity, whether we could afford a 999-year leasehold or freehold condo which could retain value much better than a 99-year leasehold condo. In recent years, there are very few new 999-year leasehold or freehold condos. We went to an area where there...

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Areas Where We Saved for Our House Purchase

I have never been a fan of property investments, mainly because of the demographic changes that Singapore will face in the next few decades. See A Prediction About Properties 13 Years Ago for more information. Yet because I am planning to get married, I have no choice but to get a property of our own. I could not possibly be telling my girlfriend “let’s not get married now, considering property prices are so high. 5 years later would be a better time, and 10 years later would be even better”. You can guess what would be the outcome if...

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Are There Stocks That Can Withstand A Crash Better?

Stocks tanked this week. When I was mulling over whether I should move 22% of my money into 1 stock, Global Logistic Properties (GLP), in Nov 2015, I wondered what would happen if the stock market were to crash. Are there stocks that could better survive a market crash of the same magnitude as the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis or the 2007 Global Financial Crisis? In the end, I reasoned that there are 2 categories of stocks that could withstand a crash better than others: undervalued (or at least not overvalued) growth stocks and dividend stocks.   Growth stocks...

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Potential Replacements for GLP

After it became clear that Global Logistic Properties (GLP) would be privatised, I have been looking for a replacement. The investment thesis for GLP is that it has a REIT manager business model, constantly developing new logistic properties and spinning them off into REITs and private equity funds. The more properties it spins off into REITs and funds, the less it owns them, and the more it resembles Uber, which owns no taxis but is considered the world’s largest taxi company. See The GLP Story for more information. Thus, when I look for a replacement for GLP, I am...

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Bye Bye, GLP!

Global Logistic Properties (GLP) was delisted last Mon after being successfully privatised. It is a growth stock, and I had hoped to hold on to it for 15 years or more, but alas, some deep pocket investors recognised its potential as well and privatised it before I could see it mature into a globally recognised name. GLP has the potential to become similar to Uber in the global logistics industry. See The GLP Story for more info. During the shareholder meeting to vote for the privatisation, a few minority shareholders recognised its potential and spoke out against the privatisation. Although I...

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As A Contrarian, You Will Always Walk Alone

A lot of investors have posted good results for last year. However, if you were like me and had been worrying that the stock market could crash in 2017, a year that ends with 7, you would have missed out on a stock market rally in which the STI rose by 18% in 2017. When everybody else is posting good results online, it does feel depressing occasionally. I was not totally out of the market last year. Having participated in the stock market for 32 years, I will never be totally out of the market, even though I respect...

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No, the Stock Market Did Not Crash in 2017

A year ago, I blogged about the trend that the stock market usually experiences a crash whenever the year ends with 7 (see Another Year That Ends with 7). As it turns out, not only did the stock market not crash, it rose significantly. The STI rose from 2,880.76 to 3,402.92 for a 18% gain! So what happened? Instead of lacklustre growth like the years before it, the global economy in 2017 staged a synchronised recovery. Locally, the government relaxed property cooling measures and both banks and property developers gained. The strong growth caught many people by surprise, including...

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The Dogs and Puppies of STI for 2018

The Dogs of STI replicates the investment strategy of the Dogs of the Dow. Since 2014, I have been analysing the performance of the Dogs of the Dow strategy as applied to STI (known as the Dogs and Puppies of STI) for the past year and identifying the new Dogs and Puppies for the current year. The Dogs and Puppies of STI for 2017 are as follows (see The Dogs and Puppies of STI for 2017 for more info): Puppies of STI 2017 A-Reit Capitaland Comm Trust Capitaland Mall Trust HPH Trust Yangzijiang Other Dogs of STI 2017 Keppel...

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Investing Lessons Learnt for 2017

The year 2017 is drawing to a close. It is time to reflect and recap the investing lessons learnt. The largest loss on a single stock this year is Triyards, which has been suspended. In addition, Ezion is also suspended and First Ship Lease Trust (FSL) looks like it is on the edge after failing to refinance its debts on schedule. There are 3 valuable lessons learnt from these episodes, namely, (1) know your customers well, (2) watch out for restricted cash, and (3) understand value-in-use. Know Your Customers Well The expenditure of an upstream customer is the revenue...

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What Keppel Offshore & Marine’s Order Book Can Tell Us

I sold Keppel Corp at $6.16 in Jan this year, expecting its Offshore & Marine (O&M) segment to start showing losses. Yet, for 3 consecutive quarters, Keppel O&M has surprised me with either breakeven or a small net profit of $1M. How did it achieve this feat, and will it continue to at least break even for the coming quarters? The answers can be partially found in Keppel O&M’s order books. Fig. 1 below shows the order book based on the financial results for Q3 FY2017. Fig. 1: Keppel O&M Delivery Order Book for Q3 FY2017 As shown in...

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Is A Recovery for Oil & Gas Shipbuilders Near?

In recent months, there have been talks about green shoots in the Oil & Gas (O&G) industry with the gradual recovery in oil price. In particular, SembCorp Marine managed to sell 9  jack-up rigs to Borr Drilling for USD1.3B in Oct. Are O&G shipbuilders & rigbuilders finally poised for a long-awaited recovery? The answer can be found in the industry value chain, because an upstream customer’s capital expenditure is a downstream supplier’s revenue. If the customer is increasing its capex, it means that the supplier will likely see increasing revenue in the coming quarters. Conversely, if the customer is...

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A Peek into Offshore Support Vessel Companies’ Prospects

I wrote about my speculative bets in Offshore Support Vessel (OSV) companies in Which Offshore Support Vessel Companies Will Survive? This is a defensive way of betting on OSV companies, as I look for companies that have low debts, low impact from asset impairment, low probability of receivable build-up/ impairment as well as no bonds maturing in the short term. Actually, there is another way of betting on the OSV companies, which is to look at the potential revenue streams the companies have in the future. As discussed in Oil & Gas, Show Me the Orders!, orders are a...

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Will GL Rise Like Mandarin Oriental?

When Mandarin Oriental shot up from USD1.50 to a peak of USD2.81 after it announced a strategic review for its The Excelsior Hotel in Hong Kong, I did not pursue the stock. But when City Developments announced that it was privatising its hotel subsidiary, Millennium & Copthorne, I decided to take a closer look at the hotel groups listed on SGX. As discussed in Some Hotels Could Be Very Valuable!, there are indeed hidden value in hotel stocks, arising from the fact that the hotels are sitting on the land for a very long time and are seldom revalued....

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Some Hotels Could Be Very Valuable!

When Mandarin Oriental announced that it was carrying out a strategic review for its The Excelsior hotel in Hong Kong, its share price promptly shot up from USD1.27 at the beginning of the year to USD2.81 at its peak in Sep. There was talk that the sale of The Excelsior would have added nearly USD3 to its share price. Mandarin owns a total of 17 hotels through subsidiaries, associates and joint ventures. Imagine how valuable the entire group would be if all its hotels could be valued at similar valuations. I did not pursue Mandarin, since its share price...

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Singapore Savings Bonds – 2 Years On

It has been 2 years since the launch of the Singapore Savings Bonds (SSB) in Oct 2015. How have the SSB interest rates changed in the past 1 year and how have SSB performed compared to the more traditional Singapore government bonds, i.e. Singapore Government Securities (SGS)? The comparison for the 1st year (Oct 2015 to Sep 2016) is discussed in Singapore Savings Bonds – A Year On. This post continues the discussion for the 2nd year (Oct 2016 to Sep 2017). The most important factor for both SGS and SSB is interest rates. In the 1st year, interest...

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