Meet The Minions

I have a bunch of speculative shares which I affectionately call "the minions". The characteristics of the minions are: small speculative positions in loss-making companies with reasonable chance of turning around. The idea behind the minions came about from a realisation that one source of multi-baggers is loss-making companies that manage to turn around. You can refer to How to Get a … [Read more...]

SSB Interest Rate Estimates โ€“ A Year On

Some readers might know that I run a parallel blog at (The) Boring Investor's Statistics that shows some of the investment statistics that I monitor on a regular basis. One of these statistics is a forecast of the interest rates of the Singapore Savings Bonds (SSBs) to be announced in the upcoming month. The interest rates for the SSB to be announced in the following month is based on the average … [Read more...]

Singapore Savings Bonds โ€“ A Year On

It has been a year since the launch of the first Singapore Savings Bonds (SSB) in Oct 2015. How have the interest rates of SSBs changed in this 1 year and how have they performed relative to the more conventional government bonds, namely, the Singapore Government Securities (SGS)?Fig. 1 below shows the 10-year interest rates of SSBs (red line). The interest rates are computed as the average of the … [Read more...]

What is My Target Price?

A reader asked me what was my target price for a particular stock in one of my blog posts. I was stumped for a while, and realised that I do not really have a target price for my stocks! I do have valuation limits on what price I could buy or sell a stock, but they are not the same as target prices. Let me elaborate further on the buy side and sell side separately. Buy Side Having a target … [Read more...]

How Should I Defend Against the Next Market Crash?

Barely 2 weeks after I wrote The Exit Might Be Narrower Than Expected, both British Pound (GBP) and Gold demonstrated what I have been worrying about. In a space of 1 week, GBP dropped by 3.8% while Gold dropped by 4.4%. GBP dropped after the British Prime Minister announced a timeline for starting Brexit talks with the European Union while Gold dropped on renewed fears of US Federal Reserve … [Read more...]

What is Holding Up US Share Prices?

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If you had read my previous post on What Have We Got After 8 Years of Easy Money?, you would know that the US equity market has gone on an 8-year bull run even though many industries (at least those in Singapore) are facing poor business and/or low margins. Fig. 1 below shows the performance of S&P500 index since 2012, which is mostly on a straight upward trendline. Fig. 1: S&P500 … [Read more...]

The Exit Might Be Narrower Than Expected

As expected, but disappointingly, US Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates on Wed. The reasons for my pessimism for the current economic conditions are explained in What Have We Got After 8 Years of Easy Money? Unless we see evidence of coordinated fiscal stimulus from governments around the world to increase aggregate demand, more liquidity via easy monetary conditions will only lead to … [Read more...]

What Have We Got After 8 Years of Easy Money?

2 unusual events happened in July. The first was the Brexit referendum, in which Britons unexpectedly voted to leave the European Union, but the stock markets, equally unexpectedly, did not crash. Within 4 trading days, the Straits Times Index was back to where it was before the vote. It turned out that the markets had correctly predicted that central banks around the world would rush to loosen … [Read more...]

Bye Bye, OSIM!

OSIM has been officially delisted on 26 Aug. This post is a compilation of 2 short stories to remember it. Both are follow-ups from my previous post on OSIM, which you can read at No, I Didn't Buy OSIM at 6ยข During GFC. The first story is about buying OSIM. When I wrote the post last Nov, 7 years after the depth of Global Financial Crisis (GFC), I never expected I would ever buy OSIM, … [Read more...]

My Oil & Gas Fightback

Finally, we have come to the grand finale on the Oil & Gas (O&G) series. When I started writing on O&G stocks in May, I did not think that I could write 14 posts on it. This final post summarises the initial ignorance on the severity of the oil crash, the mid-way realisation that something was amiss and the subsequent adjustments in investment strategies. This journey has not been a … [Read more...]

What Moving Averages Can Teach Us About O&G Stocks

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I am not a person who uses technical analysis in analysing stocks. Even then, I found the concept of moving averages (MAs) to be very useful in understanding Oil & Gas (O&G) stocks and developing investment strategies for them. The figure below shows a typical MA chart with several MA curves using Brent crude oil price as the basis. As we all know, when the spot price moves down, the … [Read more...]

My Downstream Oil & Gas Recovery Operations

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Last week, I blogged about My Upstream Oil & Gas (O&G) Rescue Operations. This week, the focus is on my downstream O&G stocks. Upstream O&G refers to the exploration and production of crude oil, while downstream O&G refers to the processing of crude oil into refined oil products such as gasoline. If you refer to the profit contributions at oil majors such as Exxon Mobil, BP, … [Read more...]

My Upstream Oil & Gas Rescue Operations

If you have been following my blog in recent months, you would know that I have been blogging about the Oil & Gas (O&G) industry, starting with oil and moving down the industry value chain to Exploration & Production (E&P), Offshore Support Vessel (OSV) and finally ship/rig building sectors. It is time to string everything together to discuss my rescue operations for the upstream … [Read more...]

Is Keppel Corp’s Provision for Sete Brasil’s Orders Adequate?

When both Keppel Corp and SembCorp Marine announced their financial results for FY2015 earlier this year, they made provisions of $230M and $329M for Sete Brasil's orders respectively. SembMar's provision is 43% higher than Keppel Corp's, even though SembMar's orders ($7.0B) are only 13% higher than Keppel Corp's ($6.2B). The big question is whether Keppel Corp's provision for Sete Brasil's orders … [Read more...]

The Type of Debts O&G Companies Have Matters

Swiber shocked the stock market on Thu by announcing that it had applied to wind up the company. This is unexpected because based on latest financial results for 1Q2016, Swiber is still generating a positive operating cashflow. Anyway, the latest on this episode is that Swiber has applied to withdraw the winding-up application and apply for judicial management instead. The issue in this episode is … [Read more...]

Keppel Corp โ€“ A Good Captain Sailing Through Rough Waters

If you had read my previous post on How Will Keppel Corp Navigate the Oil Crash?, you would know that I am ready to sell Keppel Corp before the full force of the storm hits it. Yet, I have to admit that Keppel Corp's management is doing a pretty good job in steadying the ship given the circumstances which they have not much control over. The recently released financial results for 2Q2016 reaffirms … [Read more...]

How Will Keppel Corp Navigate the Oil Crash?

Keppel Corp is a favourite stock among Singapore investors, given its strong earnings and good dividends (prior to the oil crash in Jun 2014). I have it in my portfolio too, after it came off its high 6 months later. Having held it for 1.5 years and sitting on paper losses, I am beginning to reach a conclusion over whether I should continue to hold or sell the stock. Do note that this post … [Read more...]

Is Brexit Just Noise?

And so, Brexit fears went as quickly as they came. Within 4 trading days, the Straits Times Index had recovered all of its losses from news of the Brexit referendum, giving very little time for investors to either buy or sell. Does the speed at which Brexit fears came and went and the relatively limited damage to the stock market make Brexit a non-event and noise to be ignored by investors of all … [Read more...]

Understanding Shipbuilders’ Balance Sheets

By now, it is common knowledge that ship and oil rig builders are going through a difficult period with the low oil price resulting in customer bankruptcies, order cancellations and deferments. How are the balance sheets of ship and rig builders affected by these events? By understanding the effects of these events, you can predict how the balance sheets of ship and rig builders will look like in … [Read more...]

What’s Next for Brexit?

I seldom like to blog about the latest financial news, primarily because I am a slow but deep thinker. Nevertheless, after the financial mayhem that Brexit caused on Fri, Brexit was at the top of my mind. So, I might as well pen down my thoughts. Furthermore, blogging helps to sharpen the thoughts on it. The current thoughts that you see in this post are already the second iteration. The first … [Read more...]