Author: Just my thoughts on investing

The simplest way to forecast expected return of the market

Recently I saw an interview below on John Bogle asking his view on the current market, and I thought it was really an interesting and simple way of using it as a guide. John Bogle, who is the founder of the Vanguard Group, shared this method which he had been using for some time. You can find the full video here. Essentially, it consists of 2 main concepts; of Investment Returns + Speculative Returns Dividend Yield + Earning Growth +/- Change in PE ratio   Investment Returns = Dividend Yield + Earning Growth Speculative Returns is the change in...

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Investor Sentiments (July 2017)

How many of us still remember the Asia Financial Crisis which started out of Thailand in 1997? Fast forward, this year is the 20th year since it happened. And today, most of the markets, apart from China, is hitting all time high. Both our sovereign funds released their result last week and they also observed that it is getting difficult to find value in the current market. Fear and Greed index from CNN money and sentiment survey from...

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Magic formula screen for Singapore stocks – 2

Happy Holiday and long weekend to all, it’s been more than 6 months since I last posted the Magic formula screen for Singapore stocks. Let’s take a look at the results if you were to invest in the list of stocks back then and the returns from these counters now. A slight change to the previous list was I have added SPH to the list. On the last column, it shows the percentage returns of each of the counter, Green indicates that it is a gain and Red means it is a loss. We are already halfway mark into...

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Are these stocks potential turnaround?

As the market continue to rise, there are not many cheap stocks to buy and invest in. With this in mind, I thought I will try on short term for a potential turnaround. While the whole world was worried about the Mad Fat Boy launching a missile, I was checking the past few weeks a few counters (including the below) and the TA looks pretty convincing, What do you think of the below, both cut across the 200MA, you think got chance?...

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Recent action – UMS and Keppel Corp

Despite the recent rate hike, the market continued to hitting new high. Since the beginning of this year, I have been reviewing my current portfolio, selling the weaker ones and taking some profit on the strong counters. After the last GFC, I felt that it is better to realise some hard profits and keep them in my pocket than to see them vaporising on paper. Last week, I finally took the hard decision to cut loss on my Kepcorp. This was a counter which I bought at quite a high price, and when it corrected, I should have adhered...

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I took profit for these 2 counters

President Donald Trump has done it again, through his latest speech, it had resulted in DOW JONES hitting new high and thus rallying along the rest of the world indices including STI and blue chips.  STI ETF STI has a good run since last year, it has given me more than 5% gain (excluding the dividends). From the TA indicators, it is in the over-bought zone, I thought it will be better to take some profit first. I still keep some shares as it gives me quite decent dividend yield. An interesting thing I observed in the chart below,...

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My First buy in 2017

These 2 stocks have been on my radar for some time, and I was waiting for market to present an opportunity for me to buy them. Last week, there were some heartbeat from these 2 stocks and I made my first buy for 2017. The first counter which I bought was Mapletree GCC trust. I am wary of the interest rate increase this year which many people spoke about, and that this will affect stocks like Reits and Trusts. The problem with this is that when many people are talking about it, most of the time it didnt happen...

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I have been retrenched …

In the recent months, there have been more news about corporate laying off staffs due to the worsening of the global economy. Most of us won’t feel it unless it happens to you or someone you know. Few weeks ago, I received a phone call from 2 ex-colleagues, and both of them had been retrenched as the unit closed it’s Singapore operation. However, they should be able to tide over this difficult period as they have been prudent and without major debts, apart from daily family expenses.(which the payout should be able to last for sometime). Nevertheless, I feel...

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Recent buy for these blue chips

In the last 2 months, the global stock market suddenly became lively. Last week, even the STI was closing in towards the 3000 mark. Many of the experts have predicted a market correction if Mr Trump won the election, and of course, we know by now that it didnt happen. In fact, Dow Jones has been hitting new high. Market always has it’s surprises, thus time in the market is important. Over the 2 months, I have been loading up DBS, OCBC and YZJ. There are many good articles on the fundamentals of these stocks(i shall not repeat those...

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We have forgotten – Asian Financial Crisis

I guess most of us only remembered the last Great Financial Crisis, starting with the housing toxic securities which the bubble finally burst in 2008/2009. How many of us still remembered the Asian Financial Crisis and how it started. This site here has documented the entire timeline and events if you are interested. Why am I writing this out of the blue. In the past weeks, after Trump won the US Presidential Election, the USD has strengthened and the regional currencies weakened. Some Asean countries’ currencies (Malaysia, Philippines) have dropped in a terrifying speed. Looking back, in 1997, as...

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These high yield blue chips performed well during the US Presidential Election week

It has been an interesting week, but for some, it has been a roller-coaster feeling, the market was behaving erratically during the Presidential Election day and the day after. I was hopping that the market will react drastically downwards so that I can capitalised on it, similar to my purchase of HSBC during the week of BRexit. But as we all know by now, the market crawled back and cover what was lost earlier. One of the STI component stock I noticed moved against the tide and market. On 9Nov, when the entire market was corrected, the price of...

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Magic formula screen for Singapore stocks

Magic formula investing was derived by Joel Greenblatt, he used it to buy a basket of stocks that has high earning yields and a high return on capital. Wikipedia has documented the approach and the formula, you can find the link here. Below is the extraction of the para from the link. The Formula Establish a minimum market capitalization(usually greater than $50 million). Exclude utilityand financial Exclude foreign companies (American Depositary Receipts). Determine company’s earnings yield= EBIT / enterprise value. Determine company’s return on capital= EBIT / (net fixed assets + working capital). Rank all companies above chosen market capitalizationby highest earnings yield and highest return on capital (ranked as percentages). Invest in 20–30...

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My friends bought iphone7 but I bought stocks this week

Apple has just recently launched iphone7, and few of my colleagues were very excited about it. They started monitoring the launched date from their respective Telcos, and finally they managed to book their gadget, and collected yesterday. On the other hand, I was not as excited as them, not sure if I am the only one. However, the past weeks, the market has been volatile due to the next Fed meeting. I was actually more excited about market behaving irrationally than iphone7. Instead of using the payout from Sim Lian to buy iphone7, I reinvested it back into the...

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How did my HSBC performed after BRExit

Weeks before the BRExit polling day, there were many news on the probability of Britain leaving EU, and how this will have impact on it’s economy if it happens(now we already know the polling results). There were many gloomy news, and sentiments were not good. After seeing how the large US banks are still around today and survived the Great Financial Crisis, I kind of like bank, and they are top of my list for any gloom and doom situation. I did a search looking for the largest bank in UK, and found that HSBC to be one of...

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What did we learnt from the last Fed Interest rate increase

On 16 Dec last year, Fed raised the interest rate, and lately, many of the financial news are also talking and speculating about when the next increase will be. Let’s look at what happened to some of the counters when the interest rate was increase last year, hopefully, this can help us to navigate for the next one. The first column is the counter price after the announcement of the hike, and the next column is the lowest point of the counter price the few months after. Despite what many analysts have said about banks are the ones to...

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