Author: SGXcafe

Decide When to Buy or Sell Using Short Selling Activities

Here is a question: How do you decide when to buy or sell a stock?I started trading in SGX a year ago, and every time I have money to invest, I always wonder “Should I buy now? But if not now, then when?” Since I didn’t have a good answer to that question, what I’ve been doing till now is simply buy the best stock that fits my portfolio whenever I have cash. That was the best I could do then, but I believed there must be a better way to do this and have been thinking about it....

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Stay Alert with SGXcafe

  In an ideal world, we would be able to monitor the stock market around the clock, so that we would know the instant the stock reaches a price we’ve been gunning for, or when the stock we’ve KIV-ed at the back of our minds is approaching the ex-dividend date. Alas, we don’t live in an ideal world, and even if we did, it would get pretty exhausting after a while having to watch like a hawk over the 47 different stocks we are interested in. This is the part where I tell you the good news. With SGXcafe’s...

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Manage and Share Your Portfolio Effortlessly

Are you keeping track of your portfolio by Excel or some other tedious method? There is a way to do it painlessly, and it even allows you to share it on your own site with just a single line of html code! The best part? It’s all available for free! There are many awesome financial bloggers in Singapore who share their portfolios on their blog. To me, it is to demonstrate that having a good passive income is not rocket science and it is possible for anyone. However, many of these portfolios are often a static web page that...

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SGXcafe Turns One! Thank You!

The first SGXcafe article was released on 15 March 2015, so SGXcafe officially turns one today! Many things have happened in this one year. One thousand daily visitors In this one year, SGXcafe has grown from just one daily visitor (me) to more than a thousand daily visitors now. I’m so glad so many people enjoy using SGXcafe. Thank you for your support! Invest using only SGXcafe I have added all the information and features that are needed for me to depend solely on SGXcafe to make all my stock market investment decisions and portfolio management. This was one...

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Improved Dividend Strength Estimator

In a previous article, I introduced a model which uses fundamental data to estimate Dividend Strength, P(“same or more dividends next year” | “predicted to be giving same or more dividends next year”). Numerous people have shown interest in this estimation model, therefore I decided to spend more time improving its performance. Its performance have increased from AUC (Area Under ROC) of 0.65 to 0.7. To put it simply, its performance when pitted against random guessing has improved from 30% (0.65 / 0.5) to 40% (0.7 / 0.5), as random guessing would give us an AUC of 0.5. I...

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Do You Keep Your Extra Cash in the Bank? There Are Better Options Out There!

The company that I am currently working for in Tokyo has a cafeteria that serves free lunch to all employees, hence during lunchtime, we would get together for lunch and chat. Occasionally, the topic about money management would come up, and to date, I have yet to find a Japanese colleague who invests in the stock market, citing reasons of either finding it too risky, lack of knowledge, or more commonly, both. They would instead keep their money in the bank that gives virtually zero interest. In fact, banks in Japan charge you for withdrawing your own money from...

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Dividend Strength Estimator

Like many others, I enjoy buying stocks that pay good dividends. The challenge is in identifying companies that will be able to pay good dividends year after year.Many might suggest reading through years of financial statements, as well as getting to know the top management and their vision for the company as it is the ideal way of projecting its future cashflow and thus, dividends. I do agree that that might be a good way, but the lazy statistician part of me prefers to view it as a statistical game (because looking forward, I believe everything is probabilistic no...

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Growing Dividends – Does Debt-to-equity Ratio and Operating Cashflow Matter? (Part 2)

In the previous article, I looked at how Debt-to-equity and Operating Cashflow (referred to as DER and OC from hereon) would influence Dividend Per Share (DPS). In particular, I looked at see how change of DER and change of OC in year X influences the DPS in year X+1. In this article, I would like to focus on the how absolute DER and absolute OC in year X could be a predictor of DPS in year X+1. Methodology For chi-square test, discrete data is required. In the previous article, I simply chose zero as the splitting point, which was...

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Growing Dividends – Does Debt-to-equity Ratio and Operating Cashflow Matter?

I believe there are many investors like me who love to invest in companies that pay dividends. Naturally, we hope that companies we invest in would have growing dividends. So, the question is “How can we differentiate companies that will have growing dividends from others?”In an attempt to find an answer to this question, I will perform a series of analyses in this and upcoming articles. Today, I will focus on two metrics that are commonly thought to be useful in forecasting if a company is capable of distributing the same or higher dividends in future. They are Debt-to-equity...

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The John Neff Screener

I regularly read articles from “The Motley Fool Singapore”. One person that is frequently mentioned there is John Neff. “John Neff (born 1931) is one of the best known mutual fund investors of the past 40 years, notable for his contrarian and value investing styles as well as heading Vanguard’s Windsor Fund. Windsor was the best performing mutual fund during his tenure and became the largest fund closing to new investors in the 1980s. Neff retired from Vanguard in 1995. During Neff’s 31 years, from 1964 to 1995, Windsor returned 13.7% annually versus 10.6% for the S&P 500.” –...

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Facebook for Investor

We all have a limited amount of time. Are you spending that time wisely? And are you spending more time than you should be scrolling through Facebook? I am :( In an attempt to change that, I thought that if I’m going to scroll through something on my phone, I might as well be scrolling through information on companies that I have invested or are about to invest in. Hence, over the weekend, I added a new feature in SGXcafe that mimics social networks’ popular feed system. However, instead of populating it with cat videos, It will be populated...

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A Simple Trend Analysis of Dividends – Part 2

Previously, I wrote an article about some simple analysis I did of companies listed in SGX that pays dividends. The main conclusion of that article was as follows: 1) If a company is giving out dividends this year, the chance that it would give out same or more dividends (absolute amount per share) next year was 60%. 2) If a company is giving out dividends this year, the chance that it would give out at least 50% or more dividends (absolute amount per share) next year was 80%. In this article, I wanted to see if certain attributes of...

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Becoming an Angel Investor

Last week, when I shared my portfolio in another article. I received comments privately from several people such as “50 stocks in your portfolio?!?! I think 30 should provide more than enough diversification”, “Have you heard of Warren Buffet’s 20 slot rules?”, “Why are you holding so many different stocks?” etc. Well, there are a few reasons to this. 1) I have yet to devise or find a sound approach on deciding when to sell and what to sell. Thus I am currently only buying and not selling yet. I am working on it though. 2) The academic in...

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Review of My First Year Investing in SGX

Although 2015 is not my first year investing in the stock market, it is my first time investing in the Singapore market. Previously, I was focusing on the US market mainly due to two reasons:1) The minimum to invest in many of the Singapore companies was relatively high (compared to the US) due to the minimum purchase of 1000 shares. I was a poor student then hence this was a fairly big deterrent. However, this is no longer true as the minimum number of shares has been revised to only 100 since January 2015. 2) I could not easily...

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Analyze and Compare Stocks (using SGXcafe)

Analyze Every investor has his/her favorite set of metrics that they look at when performing stock analysis and valuation. Therefore, it is difficult to decide which metric to display in SGXcafe, hence most of the time, I simply choose to display information that I am personally interested in. But I want to make SGXcafe more customizable so that it can provide better value to everyone. Incidentally, a recently-added feature, iScreener, can help solve this problem. I have tweaked it such that if you use iScreener to create a profile of metrics that you are interested in, whenever you visit...

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