Random thoughts: Annual Report 2016 Sillyinvestor Inc

Chairman statement:  Dear readers, the theme in 2016 is surviving in a volatile world. There are 2 shocker news: first Brexit and next Trump's election. But the market survived and blossom. We are proud to announce we have grow from strength to strength. The company manage a dividend of $3849 in 2016, from a capital base of about $57000, giving a yield of about 6.5%. This is a 2.5% improvement … [Read more...]

Random thoughts: Risk-reward profile by considerations and assumptions.

I am sometimes able to draw parallel in the investing world with teaching and learning. This time round, it is the reverse, I draw valuable insights from teaching and learning that can be transferred to investment. We have a module on reflection, and suddenly I realize in investing, we made many considerations but seldom do a check on our most fundamental assumptions. Let's do this: I … [Read more...]

Singpost: 2nd catalyst and 3rd catalyst

Singpost has found a replacement CEO. This is a CEO with operating expertise in logistic and freight forwarding. A timely change as it move to synergied its accquistions. With this CEO, I hope this pace of accquistions will stop over the next few years. The second catalyst has happened. Market is not excited, but at least not disappointed. Singpost has risen intandem with the market The … [Read more...]

Company prospecting: Fallen angels

%25255BUNSET%25255D.png

Some ideas for 2017? LOL Fallen angel initially is used to describe the downgrade of bonds to junk status. I remember attending the fifth person's invest X congress that define fallen angel security to that that fallen 90% I take 50% from its PEAk for it and I have the following: 90% fall Parkson Retail Asia 70% fall - APPT About 50% (thereabout), the … [Read more...]

Random thoughts: My report card for 2016

At the end of 2015, I Blog about the goals for 2016. It's quite funny now when I revisit it. This is because I started with 2015 has not been an easy year for me. This year, my work in terms of KPI really sucks. My department had a "historic drop" is quality passes. My mum passed away, and the caregiving part is tough. But today, as I penned this, I thought "God" has been merciful and kind … [Read more...]

Random thoughts: An online temptation

Lol. Just talking about an email offer to become an aflilate for a particular subscription. I had always wanted to earn some kopi money from blogging if possible I had really want to try my hand on it. Especially after some correspondences with the Marketing Manager, the product seems decent enough, and perhaps even of quality. The analysis are sharp and some could really be rather useful … [Read more...]

Investment rules for myself to obey in 2017

I realized I have been rather trigger happy. I am going to set these rules for myself for 2017   1) Any buy entries must fulfilled one of the three investement theories. A cyclical recovery play, growth drivers play or strong FCF, negligible debt yield plays.   2) All entries must come with a potential exit plan with potential reward. POTENTIAL reward should not be lower than 35% in a entry, … [Read more...]

Accordia Golf Trust

I didn't see much views about the potential privatization of sponsor by MBK. Reading about the tender offer, offer a few insights that I think are important but not reported by the various news agency. 1) “Year 2020 problem” It means a problem that may cause a reduction in golf demand in circumstances where a majority of postwar baby-boomers who lead the current golf demand will be over 70 … [Read more...]

Random thoughts: Human capital

Human capital? What comes to your mind? The amount of money your skills and network can generate, payoff? Right? In simplicity, our work. My work for the year 2016, is drawing to a close, as usual,I am going to review my human capital. When I started 2016, I wrote E3. I want to do be effective, efficient and engaging in my teaching. I think I done all three. I do not want to review how … [Read more...]

Random thoughts: my pupils’ dream job

It is winding down to the end of the year. I introduce Windows Publisher to my pupils, and asked my pupils to do a business card for themselves. I told them upfront, choose something u want to be, u like, dun worry about money, forget about your parents ' expectations for a while. It is just a fun exercise, think of a job that will make you happy! If really being a lawyer or doctor is … [Read more...]

Ascendas Reit: A weird share price pattern?

areit1.png

I am writing here because I felt there might be some "pattern" in Ascendas Price movement. Granted, all industrial reits are facing some weakness with fear of interest rate hike and spike in industrial vacancy. But lets start with this picture. If only this is the chart for its share price. You can see from here, with the exception of GFC, A-reit has an unblemished track records for … [Read more...]

Random thoughts: A 3-part lesson about thinking out of the box

SMOL keep writting about his teachers; it gave me the itch to write about my teaching. There is a chapter about Lim Bo Seng, our War Hero. Instead of the usual lesson, (it's after exam), I ask the pupils to extract info from the text to make into a pamphlet . I told them to choose sides, if u are Guerilla fighters on Lim Bo Seng side, what would write in the secret pamphlets  about his … [Read more...]

Singpost Q2 – My thesis is challenged

%25255BUNSET%25255D.png

i did not expect the dividends cut policy to be announced before the announcement of the CEO. I shall not talk give a summary of the quarter report, readers can look at them themselves. There are several negatives in this report. Of the above, the one that throw me off my comfort zone is higher cost in the e-commerce business. This cost, the "last minute fulfillment of labour" smell like … [Read more...]

Venture Corp and Lee Metals

%25255BUNSET%25255D.png

Last Friday was the day Singpost, Venture and Lee metals results were out on the same day. I have wrote a post about Singpost, it's results is below expectation. As for Venture, the recovery story continues. It is a very good set of results. Not only has the recovery continued, margin has continue to improve. There is no more info on the different segments, but I guess the medical testing … [Read more...]

Company prospecting: Talkmed

(not vested) I have been crawling through medical companies, especially those offering direct services to patients. But have not go into those upstream, the manufacturers of medical equipments, products. One thing that struck me is the high lofty valuation of above 30 PE is more of norm than exception. It is a sector that seems that it can do no wrong, however, looking at the companies, I … [Read more...]

SingPost – the first catalyst has happened

The alibaba deal is on. http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/SGX%20Ann.ashx?App=Announcement&FileID=426494 Next is the confirmation of CEO. The better than expected results due to peak season of Christmas and Year end Celebration 2017, awaiting the SP mall to contribute. Am I dreaming? Why not? Greater fool theory? Alibaba is willing to pay 1.75 for SingPost new issue shares. I am … [Read more...]

A reflection of my investing approach

For quite some time, I found it hard to explain my approach. Value investing? Dividend investing? I am not going to pull my hairs over the words, but I realized I have many unanswered questions as I reflect on my investing journey. First of all, let's go into the buy side of investing. I am definitely not pressing the "buy" button using numbers as the only decision. Not that numbers are not … [Read more...]

Has the fundamentals of M1 and SPH caught up with valuation

I doubt anyone would disagree with me that the fundamentals of these 2 companies are being affected by competition. M1 by a highly possible 4th Telcom player and SPH by alternative news digital platforms. But that is only half the question, a better question would be "has the challenging outlook being reflected in the shares price, and has it overshoot to the downside?" Personally, between … [Read more...]

Doing company prospecting is risk management rather than prediction

This is somewhat triggered by B's post on swiber and the issue of hindsight commentary. It is not difficult to find what's wrong with swiber, MPM, etc. but personally, DYODD is more about self-accountability and comfort level rather than anything else. I remembered MPM had a price surge when it first announced its foray into Rig, if u have exited then, MPM is still a profitable (perhaps … [Read more...]

Random thoughts: "beautiful souls"- a thought-provoking book

"Beautiful souls" is a wonderful book, it is cognitively stimulating and emotionally disturbing. It contains 4 true stories about  the courage and conscious of ordinary people in extraordinary times. Just 1 story, and it stirs me. The story about the police captain who falsified papers so that Jews can stay in Swiss. It is not just a recount of what happens but also explanations of why it … [Read more...]