Author: Sillyinvestor

Company prospecting: Kingsmen

Kingsmen stock price has tumbles. I shall not bored u with numbers and analysis other bloggers have blogged about. (Fifth person write up is good) Nerf experince park is touted as one of the grow drivers for the company, and possibly to scale up to expand overseas or locally. My scuttlebutt online from Google reviews is poor. I ask my wife to bring my son, niece and nephew to visit the “playground”. It is actually just that, with competition of SPARK at Suntec which is within walking distance. There is also bounce, concept or thematic playground. None of the...

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Random thoughts: A hot pan to another

Recently, I was considering a career move. Due to a recommendation by a friend, I explored a partnership in a potential venture.  The discussion didn’t end well. I gave the matter some.thoughts and decided to talk to more people.After that, I realised I might be jumping from one hot pan to another.  Made me feel better although nothing much has changed. I do not think I will continue that venture.  Another blogger made me realise there is a big difference being wanting to start your own business and wanting to be self-employed. So… I decided to be manwhore one...

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Company Prospecting: Modeling future earnings of companies

I have finished reading the book “Common Stocks, Common Sense”, and have re-read a few chapters twice. I can really relate to the statement about modeling future earnings through qualitative analysis and “guessing” than just simply extrapolating pass data into future. This is especially true for companies that are cyclical in nature. It is not really meaningful to DCF its value, because the earning might be quite volatile. Reits might be a better target to DCF. To cut the story short, I will like to share how I have applied my own future modeling using Singapore Companies as case...

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Company prospecting: Pan United

A very short write up. More for discussion and putting it on investment bloggers radar, than throwing in numbers. Pan United is a leading supplier of cement in Singapore. Hence their business depends on the demand of the construction sector. Information from BCA show that demand is picking up. The lowest projection of demand is expected to go up over the next few years. The projection came before the announcement of IR expansion. I am not sure if the 9 billion investment is accounted for, I assume that even if it is accounted for, all these would mean the...

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SillyInc corporate update : First Reit Accumulation

Silly Inc recently double the holdings of FR in portfolio. The Average price is 77 cents including costs. The board is in the view that default risk by Lippo K (Biggest rental income customer 87%) is non-existence, since the rights exercise by Lippo K (yet to materialize) However, since then, First Reit has been falling from above $1 to the low of 93 cents recently. All the known risks have been reduced, yet FR fall instead of rise. Lets visit the risks: 1) Execution of Meikarta Project by Lippo K (Top management did not get indicted, and there is...

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Random thoughts: Old age and money

Its less than 3 years apart since my mun passed away and there is a need of active givegiving for my dad. I am closer to my dad. Hence, the last 3 months sometime do send my mind to a roller coaster ride. There is a period of time, I worried for my single child. I thought of checking myself in to a community hospital or home and paying the expenses from my rental. There is no need for my house to worry about me falling, etc. Having been to the hospital for 3 months. I know how it...

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Random thoughts: be mindful of not seeing the full picture.

Recently, I saw a lot of sponsored ads related to investment in Facebook. Some of my friends like the pages. Out of morbid curiosity, I look at the comment section of a online earning workshop that I know is just …… I am surprised by the sheer number of people interested. I hope with this post, people understand that I do not need to lie to mislead u. Just not telling you the full picture is enough. I shall be upfront that portfolio returns (realised including dividends) or ROA for the last 3 years are 4 percent, 6 percent,...

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Random thoughts: The 3 little joys from teaching

Let me start by being me, cynical. I don’t change lives, kids change lives on their own,because of circumstances or will. I just hope I am part of the positive influence in those circumstances. So the joys I derived are from the small stuff. I however know of real flesh and blood people who stories are like those u see on advertisement. So here goes. 1) when pupils understand the lesson and overcome a particular fear of learning. When pupils finally understood the thinking process behind a language task, be it reading comprehension, or writing, they no longer need...

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Random thoughts: 5 years after I thought I begin my journey to Rome

This post is a review of a post of investment principles I had 5 years ago in 2014. https://sillyinvestor.blogspot.com/2014/07/random-thoughts-my-route-to-rome.html?m=1 2014 One paradigm shift: Stop worrying about the value of my portfolio. Not that it is not important, but the cashflow of dividends and the robustness of underlying business is more important NOW: Portfolio value is important. Returns is not as important robustness of portfolio. Keep a decent amount of cash in portfolio. Recent correction with counters in radar falling 50% to 80percent from their historical or recent peak, made me take out my gun and statt firing. The lowest...

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Random thoughts: How rich am I?

This not a post about net worth, but rather, a compilation of real people I met, and my observations here. I am being judgmental here, so be warned. Names are not real 1) David has a view on how others should leave their lives. Why is the wife Not working, why work as a Expat overseas when the pay is not much higher. Why Not sack the relative at work who is not contributing. Why not looking to buy property. It will be too late if we dun buy something to leave for our child. We are being passive...

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Random thoughts: APTT and First Reit

A lot have been said about these 2 counters. I just want to share some findings that I think is not yet cover by bloggers (to my best knowledge) Let’s start with APTT: 1) With the new dividends of 1.2 cents, and assume Capex of 75 Mio and Interest and tax expenses to remain constant, APTT will have a buffer of 4 to 8 Mio after Dividends from their generated cash flow. Good, dividends more or less safe. 2) APTT growth if any, can only come from broadband. Pay TV in Taiwan is not exactly the same as Singapore....

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Random thoughts: 2018 work review- A midlife crisis

2018 is a difficult year for me. I will just talk about work in this post. This is the 4th year in my appointment. It is a difficult year as I have to manage many staff having issues at work. While I have genuinely tried to help all, I think only 2 turn out well. This is the worst year in terms of results, I think most of my staff have put in their best. To be honest, I do think with such bad records and having so many years into the job, I really need to take a...

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Random thoughts: Sickness

Is the holidays. I usually get very sick when the term break is here. The funny thing is, beyond the obvious physical discomfort, I actually feel more at peace. I could have guilt free and care free rest, and the people around me are more understanding. When I fell asleep with newspapers around the room, my wife just picked them up without nagging. When I slept and slept, it didnt feel like I am wasting time. When I brought my dad out for dinner, I had the most relaxing moments with my dad, soaking in the christmas atmosphere at...

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Random thoughts: Silly Inc Corporate updates

Dear Readers, It was stated last year the Silly Inc will no longer do half-yearly intern report, but so much has happened in Q3 that I, as the Chairman, find it necessary to give a update. First of all, the rule of diversification of that our counters in our portfolio should be around 5-10% by cost value is broken. The company accumulate Silverlake Axis prior to its strong Q1 report and the company itself now takes up almost 15% of the whole portfolio value. We still have about 50% of the portfolio in cash. Rationale for the accumulation is...

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Random thoughts: Moral?

Saw this at Facebook. Strike a chord. This is my comment to his Qn, |”so what do we do” —————————- I think the article is right but ignore the fact about moral development readiness of a child. Like learning, there is some rote learning at the beginning of mastery of  basic nummeracy etc. Hence, a child would need to be simply reinforced and reprimanded for act of goodness and selfishness at certain early stage of life, until they could understand I do good or evil simply because I want to and it is who I am. The only way...

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