Author: Sillyinvestor

Is silverlake axis acquisitions a good deal?

I might be suffering from confirmation biases here, but I think it is a fairly good deal. Here is why? For the Base Case Acquisition Cost (Profits of all 3 entities do not experience more than 25% earning growth yearly for the next 3 years till 2020 ), the acquisition will be done purely through the issue of new shares. Hence there is no strain on the cash of silverlake axis, neither will it need to takes on loan for this acquisition. New shares issued is cents 71cents, a premium of about 17% over the last traded price of...

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What is my investment plan?

Warning: Incoherent post with main objective of thinking aloud I think I have a plan until when I asked myself this question, then I realized I have many nagging questions and thoughts, so I thought I pen it down and hope it crystallize my thoughts. You can stop reading now if you are looking forward to a coherent post. ————————————————————————————————————————– My plan is simple, has enough cash to buy in bear and enough equity to sell in bull. The % part is also simple. Assume STI historical peak of near 3800 is a peak where I would want to...

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Random thoughts: Knowledge is hypothesis tested

During my course, I learn about several strategies for pupils to remember vocabulary taught. One that intrigued me is the Frayer model. In short, it’s a model that also highlight examples and non-examples as well as meaning etc for a deeper understanding of a word. I tried it for both my higher progress and lower progress pupils. I have since discard both. For the LP, it’s straightforward, they can’t even understand the meaning, no point going so deep into the concept. As for the MP, I struggle for a while. The pupils seem bored when I am explaining the...

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Spying on the war between CDG and GRAB

I was looking around, wondering what counter measures CDG would do in the war against GRAB. Seriously, I think CDG is not fighting a war. It is either too confident or too complacent. I am thinking of the war online. The war on communication and propaganda. I search online Grab recruitment of drivers and CDG’s. Here goes: I saw incentives after incentives. Those who are newly signed-up and those who are already with them. This is not easy and I felt the sincerity or (aggressiveness) in getting driver’s to cross over and stay. Please note that many promotion on...

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Random thoughts: Improving memory of your kids

Exams is around the corner. I realise I share so much on investing but never on learning. So here goes. I was told my earlier post on education/ tuition create a storm at investing note. My apologies, I didn’t read what is written there, I share what I know, u need not agree with me The theory: Memory is about input, working memory, retention and retrieval. To do well, all 4 links need to addressed. Just doing assessment after assessment without input is useless. Also, if u put your clothes is drawer 1, it is most easily retrieve in...

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Short update on Yangzijiang

http://splash247.com/worker-dies-crane-collapses-yangzijiang-yard/ YZJ’s second worksite accident in 3 months. The key event is operations at Yangzi Yard is suspended. There is no update to SGX though. Earlier, there is news that YZJ has retrench 2000 workers. However, it’s yard are busy with orders stretching to 2019. Is there over-work.? It is it just a freck accident This might be the first test for Ren’s son as CEO. Not vested. I dun want to sound like sour grape. Because I sold earlier at a song. But personally, the risk reward profile at current levels is rather unattractive...

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Discussion on comfort delgro

This post is kind of triggered by B’s blog post. There is an robust discussion over there. Some of the ideas throw out also appear in valuebuddies. I would just like to share my view on some of the thoughts and comments. I am only interested in the forward looking comments, that’s where the fun comes in; as for past numbers, there can be little arguments. Here goes: (B, no disrespect, come join and poke me too) 1) Grab business model is unsustainable. MHO:Yes, it is burning cash. But it can burn cash long enough to create a lot...

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Random thoughts: Of respect and happiness

Just my weekend musings: There are 2 ways to happiness. One is to accept current situation. Second, is to pursuit what u want. My observation is there are many seemingly poor or “unfortunate” people who are happy, because they accept their bad set of cards. There are many energetic people with a goal in their life and passionate about their life. Respect, what do you respect? I didn’t ask who. 1) Character- e.g. Resilence, wit etc 2) Money 3) Power – Position of authority, etc I will be honest, I respect all three to varying degree. I don’t just...

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Random thoughts: Of Swordplay, Pedagogy and Investment

What does these have in similar?   They have many forms, but at its core and substance, more will converge, and there is a return to basic.   One of my favourite swordplay movie, 《蕭十三郎的劍》,about 2 top martial art experts, sharing their essence of skill before duet. The essence of one is “flow and change” and the essence of the other is “basic” yet killing moves.   It’s a fun and insightful show. The one with basic moves wins. I makes me think a lot about teaching. There is so many pedagogies, ICT-infused lesson, collaborative learning, inquiry-based learning, game-based...

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Bought Raffles Medical

Raffles Medical for 2 quarters, has lost it shine as a grower. Both revenue and Profits were flat. Before this, it was a darling because of the below: Very consistent, isn’t it? Now, with earnings stagnating, it show the share price hit a 52-week low recently.  An almost 1/3 fall from its peak. If u read around, there are many reports that state how its business might worsen. Let me summarize (Parrot): 1) Holland V Medical is fully leased but there is no spike in revenue, that means the patient load is worse than expected. 2) China expansion will...

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Random thoughts: Where is your solace

This post is triggered by a post from AK. He noticed one of his reader might be at risk/ already in depression. It reminded me of a period of difficulty, when I see only suffering. I was lucky, there was solace from home, although my spouse’s family also meet with difficulty. Yup, it never rains but pour. Ironically, the solace I seek then was work. Being with my pupils. I live by the day, waiting for the quiet of night to have some peace.  I also know of someone who always talk about taking her life. I know of...

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Random thoughts: Defensive stocks?

What come to your mind? Names or numbers? In the past, perhaps 1-2 years ago, you might name telcos, healthcare/ heathcare reit? The 3 telecoms are suffering from investors’ anxiety without real confontation from TPG. Having another player at the table has lead to some analysts to shout which company might be merged. Is Singapore market too small for a 4th Telco? Only time will tell, but if u tell someone on the street now that M1/ starhub is defensive, but for the dividends and its cash flow, I am Not sure if u get the same reactions from...

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Random thoughts: Myths of ways to academic achievements

Views are my own only.   1) Tuitions must be given to children because everyone has it.   This is simply not true. In my experience with schools, I know there is no simple correlation between tuition and performance, especially if parents take the attitude of “dump money; solve problem” mentality. Children are not stupid. If u dun tell them or discuss with them the reasons for tuition, they will take their tutors as just. Answers machines.   I know of children dying to take work home because it is so much easier to be a copier at home....

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Random thoughts: POSB Smart Buddy Program

The buddy is a smart watch. My son has one. This is a cynical post. Be warned I think it’s not a bad product. And POSB marketing is brilliant! Get the parents to request school to implement it, and parents and child get a free watch. The thing is I felt offended IS that schools are like sheeps jumping over loops. Still let media trumpet their cashless initiative. Of course there is agenda, support government drive go cashless Ma. But, why POSB over others? Does school Monitoring the spending habits and balance of pocket money help kids develop better...

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Lee Metals Q2 results sucks

Q2 results is out, it’s profits fell almost 65% compared to a year ago, and 2017 is supposed to be a stronger year when demand for construction and hence steel is concerned. In my earlier post: “If we track BCA demand, 2015 is a bountiful year. Billing was 35 Billion. 2016 was 26 billion. 2017 minimum range is from 28 billion. The recent budget announcement has 700 mio public project brought forward. Of course, there is a possibility of demand falling short, but that is highly unlikely as these projects are local and mainly government projects (2/3 of projected...

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