Author: Sillyinvestor

A query of my post about SGX

Dear readers, I receive an query email from a reader. I think I need to explain myself. When I write, I am thinking aloud and I do not proof read that many times. So I might be confusing at times, or it could be due to my command of the language. ( I am better at Chinese than English) The query go like this: Actually, i have a quesiton regarding your analysis out of interest sake. I am an investor myself. You calculated SGX intrinsic value to be $4.2 and the current price is $7 (6.8 now) and yet...

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What price monopoly?

Readers would have know I have been practicing DCF model just to get a “gut feel” of the valuation of the price. SGX caught me attention when it went below $7. So I took the average of 268 mio of FCF over the past 7 years (any earlier before meager would be meaningless), to work the sum. I thought 9% discount rate and 3% growth would be prudent and reasonable. Turn out without applying MOS of 20%, its intrinsic value is $4.2. That would be a yield of 6.7%, PE 15. Any serious investor would know its a screaming...

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Sabana REIT- misjudgment of management, what to do next

In my earlier posts, I overestimated the management of sabana. They had make acquisitions that are yield accretive with decent yield of 6-7%. They have a performance fees structure that will only payout performance when DPU increase by 10%. If DPU increase 10%, I seriously do have problem with them claiming their due rewards. But alas, it’s quite obvious the management interest are not aligned with the minority shareholders and the capability is questionable too. First, a placement that dilute existing shareholders holding, to buy a half vacant AMD building. The results: Pathetic increase of about 3 million gross...

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Random thoughts- why are the young competing with the old for units at retirement village

I read with bewilderment that there are those in 20s and 30s buying units at the retirement village, the first in Singapore. All the 281 units were sold out within hours. I am not sure if those 20s and 30s are shopping for a unit for their elderly. If they are shopping on behalf of their elderly. I would say they are quite sweet in providing lodging for their old. I am not sure if there are rules to check the age of occupants. My logical thoughts are: maybe there should be a minimum age of at least 45...

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Random thoughts- strange how my preferences change so much with age?

I just realized my taste and preferences change a lot. I listen to FM 88.3 now, and pay a lot of attention to the lyrics and the instruments behind the music. I used to just like the rhythm and the “feeling” behind it. I loved to go KTV and sing, now I just like listening to oldies. Would u believe if I tell u I actually went youtube to listen to Michael’s smooth criminal again just last month. I used to find music boring, I needed pop songs. I like the sing of flute and string instruments now. (...

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Random thoughts- strange how my preferences change so much with age?

I just realized my taste and preferences change a lot. I listen to FM 88.3 now, and pay a lot of attention to the lyrics and the instruments behind the music. I used to just like the rhythm and the “feeling” behind it. I loved to go KTV and sing, now I just like listening to oldies. Would u believe if I tell u I actually went youtube to listen to Michael’s smooth criminal again just last month. I used to find music boring, I needed pop songs. I like the sing of flute and string instruments now. (...

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My thoughts after reading Nam Lee Metals AR

After reading up on the AR, I find a few interesting points: Information about major customers (p88): “In the current financial year, revenue from two major customers amounted to $77 million (2012: $89 million) arising from sales by the aluminium segment and $25 million (2012: $11 million) arising from sales by the aluminium and mild steel segment respectively” Its quite obvious 77 million come from carrier (pure aluminium business), and 25 million come from HDB (Both aluminium and mildsteel). Orders from HDB increase, which is what they have been saying, but orders from carrier is falling, or they are...

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Random thoughts- shouldn’t Singpost and SPH consider working together?

Just some random thoughts here. Singpost and SPH both have Hugh distribution network. Singpost wanted to go big on online retail, wanted to sign online franchise, SPH has hardwarezone and advertising is but a small variable cost. SPH help in advertising, add e-commerce depth to Singpost, singpost deliver both posts and newspaper. Parcel can be collected at both singpost outlets as well as Buzz pods. This will give buzz pod some retail depth and increase singpost retail distribution reach. When singpost go newspaper delivering, parcel for posts can be given to the delivery man using Pre-paid packages or containers?...

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Limitations of some numbers and ratios

Just a beginner blog of some of the limitations of some numbers and ratios. PE. There is limitations if the company you are looking at is highly cyclical. It my be at the peak of the cycle and hence PE is at the lowest, but earnings might fall, and PE increase. Earnings of core operations might not be that high, earnings might be very high due to revaluation of assets (properties or biological). Palm oil companies have good revaluation of their plantations due to the increasing CPO prices. Such revaluation might be one-off and are unsustainable. If you are...

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APTT – 2nd practice of new model

For APTT, I have already establish its economic moat and earning power in an previous blog http://sillyinvestor.wordpress.com/2013/12/17/aptt-is-distribution-sustainable/ APTT is a media company with regulation constraints/protection, with the rezoning of frachase areas, APTT will start to face competition from 2015 onward, but as mentioned in the previous blog, competition if any, will not be highly corrosive, as the pie (penetration rate low enough) is big enough, and competition will most probably be restricted to 2 per zone, since any more competition will most likely be suicidal due to the highly capital intensiveness of the business. Growth in  APTT, can come...

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Lee metals – 1st practice of DCF valuation after reading Pat Dorsey

Well, no rocket science, but here goes. First, if the operating numbers make any sense to go further.   Most importantly, FCF, the lifeblood of DCF calculation is reasonable stable   Only 2 years of negative FCF, which is more than offset by the other years, with the average FCF of the last 8 years to be 15 mio and the peak at 53 mio. To estimate the new year FCF, I use 15 mio, with a growth rate of 2%, 3% and 4%, which will be 18 mio, 19.5 mio, 21.3 mio respectively in 10 years time, conservative...

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Book review- “The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing” by Pat Dorsey

I spend the past week finding whatever free time I had to read the book, which is recommended by musicwhiz. It is amazing how easy it is to navigate the book. The author should really be given credits for able to explain complex concepts in a clear and simple language. First of all, I always have difficulty understanding the concept of DCF, and also is skeptical of the discount rate and growth rate assumption. After reading the book, I found the whole framework clear and meaningful. The first chapter of the book talk about economic moats, which is really...

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Random thoughts- What kind of person am I?

In investing, we always ask what kind of investors are we? It is important to know our temperaments so as to find the style of investment that is in sync with our temperament, and be successful in investing. If we think a step backwards, we should ask ourselves also, what kind of human are we, so that we can be successful and most importantly happy in the circumstances we are in, although we can change our circumstances somewhat, change our work, maybe to the extreme,even divorce (*choy choy choy, where is the woods), many will agreed our life span...

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A reflection of investment journey 2013

I was reading various forums and bloggers and realized quite a number of people can achieve returns of 30% in 2013 for their portfolio. I was wondering why my results are so dismayed compare to them. And No, there people get their results not by trading or speculating in pennies. They bought stocks like M1, challenger, valuatronics, Yangzijiang, CES, etc. Demoralization aside, I reflect hard on what could be lacking in my investment process, that created such a glaring difference. I think I have come up with several possible reasons. 1) Scope of companies under radar. Companies under my...

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Year-end portfolio review – A dismay record

True to my nick, I have a dismal record. All my counters were bought in 2013 except Nam Lee. I used to own and sell other counters too, and trade s-chips quite heavily at one point of time. After reading “the intelligent investor”, my whole investment paradigm shifted. I am also clearer with what I want, I wanted dividend income for cash flow, more than capital gain. I decided to be more transparent with readers, showing how much was vested. Is ok if other thinks I am silly, and stop reading my blog. I also calculate return based on...

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