Author: Sillyinvestor

A reflection of investment journey 2013

I was reading various forums and bloggers and realized quite a number of people can achieve returns of 30% in 2013 for their portfolio. I was wondering why my results are so dismayed compare to them. And No, there people get their results not by trading or speculating in pennies. They bought stocks like M1, challenger, valuatronics, Yangzijiang, CES, etc. Demoralization aside, I reflect hard on what could be lacking in my investment process, that created such a glaring difference. I think I have come up with several possible reasons. 1) Scope of companies under radar. Companies under my...

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Year-end portfolio review – A dismay record

True to my nick, I have a dismal record. All my counters were bought in 2013 except Nam Lee. I used to own and sell other counters too, and trade s-chips quite heavily at one point of time. After reading “the intelligent investor”, my whole investment paradigm shifted. I am also clearer with what I want, I wanted dividend income for cash flow, more than capital gain. I decided to be more transparent with readers, showing how much was vested. Is ok if other thinks I am silly, and stop reading my blog. I also calculate return based on...

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Random thoughts- what does the movie “The hobbit” remind me of in investment?

Not to trust reviews ( analyst reports) for big name movie (company) I remember reading somewhere from peterlynch books that it is easier forgiven to be wrong about the big names, than to be wrong about a small company. Who can one blame if a big company cover by so many analysts underperformed, but be damned if u choose a under radar company and it didn’t turn out well. I catch “the storm” a Chinese movie by Andy lau and “the hobbit” on the same day with my wife. Prior to the movie, reviews gave the Andy lau show...

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APTT :Email Qn and Ans with CFO

Qn: Thank you for for taking time to answer my questions. I do have another concern. From your prospectus, Expected tax resolution is 46 million and company has set aside 50.2 million in loans for the settlement. But the maximum amount claimed by the tax bureau is actually $122.4 million, a whopping 74 million difference. Granted, company has mentioned the discussion is progressing well, but its coming to the end of 2013, and there is no announcement of any resolution yet. In the event that the tax payable is much higher than what the company has set aside for,...

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APTT — Is distribution sustainable?

APTT is a much disliked counter going by what forummers/ bloggers said about it during its IPO, but it has fallen 23% from its IPO price with a yield of above 10%. It is still a bargain now? As with HPHT, the sustainability or the doubts of its sustainability of payout is the main reason for its under performance. Lets us look at APTT and the various threats and see if they are justifiable. First, earning power. If we go earlier, a similar picture emerges. The good operating numbers correspond to the increasing basic TV RGUs and the increasing...

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Your emergency funds – How much is enough? (Warning: Dark content)

There is a general guideline of 6 months – 12 months. I think that is arbitrary. First, 6 months of $2000 is rather different from 6 months of $10K We need to understand the nature of our job, how easy is it to lose our job, or is it a iron rice bowl. I consider my job an iron rice bowl job. (I traded high pay for security if you like) Next, how cover are you and your family when accident or illness strike? Is there any existing illness that are excluded in your H&S plans for you and...

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HPHT- Betting on Yantian to deliver

Readers would know that I have accumulate HPHT, when the price is beaten down recently. Let us look at the numbers again. Capex Capex for 2012 and 2013 thus far. ~598 mio HKD and 584 mio HKD From prospectus, “West Port Phase II has incurred approximately HK$0.2 billion in construction costs, with approximately HK$3 billion more required to complete construction., to be completed by 2015″, and “The Trustee-Manager anticipates that the total capital expenditure of HPH Trust in 2011 and 2012 will be approximately HK$1,986.9 million and HK$1,172.1 million” Given Yantian phase 3 is completed by mid-2011, we can...

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Market in correction mode- silly investor making silly purchases

The market has bee in correction mode despite the general more upbeat macro numbers both in US and Singapore. Again tapering is quoted as a result. To me, even if tapering do start in dec, it is not a bad thing if u buy sound companies. In fact, I feel that market is just going thro a correction and tapering is just a excuse. The recent correction have trigger several accumulation of counters. I bought more of HPHT, and did the CD and XD thing to stretch my dividend yield for SPH. Buying back at $4 and selling at...

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Random thoughts: Financial Freedom is a means to an end, not the end itself

(Random thoughts series have nothing to do with analysis of companies, skip it if you like) Hmm… What I am going to say will most properly pissed a lot of savvy investors off. What I am going to say here is run counter to many wealth accumulation rules. 1) Delayed gratification. Yes, I agree, but we need to make sure our love ones enjoy life if we could afford it. Loans for holidays is a NO-NO, left hand in and right hand out every month? No- No! But we do not have to maximize savings like it is a...

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The difference management makes to malls

It is the school holiday season again. I have been very fortunate enough to be spending more time with my family. But when my family enjoy their dose of food, shopping and sight-seeing, I actually see the shops and foods through an investor lens. (quite fun actually, since I previously detest shopping) I am always amazed at how crowded the suburban capital land malls are, so I was really surprised to see the shops at SIngapore Flyer almost empty. Singapore Flyer is located at an iconic place, is an integrated part of the skyline of Singapore river, but the...

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GRP- one of the weirdest company I have seen

I saw a link from another blogger for GRP. It has zero debt, and pay dividends of 2 cents since 2008, at current price of 10.4cents, dividends yield is close to 20% What is most amazing is it generates FCF since 2008 Well, there shouldn’t be FREE LUNCH, isn’t it? I decided to find out more, and I realized the reason, they have a rights cum warrant issue. (source: http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Announcement_Rights_cum_Warrants_Issue_060913.ashx?App=Announcement&FileID=255553)   That they have a highly dilutive rights and warrants issue is not surprising, assuming all rights and warrants are exercised, which is very likely since the warrant has...

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Landuse Master plan 2013- What is my favorite?

Under the landuse master plan, they plan to add 200,000 housing by 2016 and 700,000 by 2030. There are plans to develop Tampines North, Bidadari and punggol. See: http://www.mnd.gov.sg/landuseplan/e-book/ Under the Draft masterplan 2013, there are further details on how existing estates will be further developed. They seems to be plenty of construction of buildings to go on till 2016 and beyond What counters will benefit? Property and construction counters come straight to mind. Property counters are still affected by cooling measures and with the Hugh supply of housing, maybe their launches will be affected adversely too. So construction companies seem...

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