Author: Sillyinvestor

Random thoughts: interviews

I just went for an interview for a opening of a new appointment. My prospective supervisor spent quite a bit of time preparing me, to the extend that I fell like I am doing 10 years series. I really appreciate her efforts while I doubt her approach. Interview came, I reminded myself to frame my conversation according to the pointers my supervisor gave me, so that I will not disappoint her, but I mentally told myself not to say anything that I believe is untrue, or I dun believe in. So well, the interview went well initially, all questions...

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Sillyinvestor support BeHappyAlways’s initiative to nudge Singholdings’ management for Sharebuyback.

Dear readers and fellow bloggers, Behappyalways from valuebuddies is trying to rally support from shareholders to send an letter to management of SingHoldings, asking for fairer treatment of minority owners Below is a template of letter: 6 March 2014 Sing Holdings Limited 96 Robinson Road #10-01 SIF Building Singapore 068899 Dear Board of Directors and Mr Lee We are a group of shareholders writing in to express our concern with the share performance of Sing Holdings for the past few years. We are disappointed with the Board and Management inaction towards the under performance of the share price. Shareholders’ call for a...

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2 misses- straco and UMS

Both companies were under my radar when they were some 30% to 45% lower than current price. That means I loss about 50% to 90% gains. I was alerted to straco when it is trading at 28 cents, I owned UMS at 37.5 cents but sold early at 44 cents. It is perhaps important to review why I give them a miss and learn some lessons. Straco It was a s-chip, I have doubts about its numbers, especially when another blogger highlight the low depreciation of bio assets. The yield then was rather weak, even when I project a...

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Portfolio update as of 2nd March 2014

  The pictures above show my holding as of 19 December and Today, net profits/ loss including dividends does not include dividends declared but not received. I accumulated APTT at 78 cents and divested from HPHT at 84.5 cents. Other than that, it is status quo. I have blogged separately about HPHT, Lippomall, Lee Metals and Yangzijiang. I believe HPHT can deliver on the 8% yield through capital management, or strong rebound from HOng Kong and Yantian ports. But the bet case scenario would have to pent out for me to have the 8% on a sustainable footing, what...

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Yangzijiang: results within expectation but look out for HTM investment costs

I am generally please with YZJ’s results. Dividend is maintained at 5 cents. Shipbuilding margin is stable. Offshore arm showing progress with YZJ confirming the signing of 2+2 semi-submersible rigs (with PPL), although YZJ did not consider the contract effective since no deposit is received. I consider this prudent management. Some progress made in the property development arm too, with new acquisition made. However,  total cost of RMB256 million was incurred for the Group’s Held-to-Maturity Investments, which were due to tax expenses mainly consisting of sale taxes and its related levies on interest income. A result of the clampdown on...

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Random thoughts: My second horrible experience with UOB card

Readers would know that I feel cheated by the telemarketer of UOB one card. I didn’t use the card anymore, but have not terminate it. I thought it is good to have another credit card from another bank. I still have  a $50 rebate not used. Think my appeal the other time work. But I just cancelled all my cards with UOB, very upset with how they work. I think a few years ago, I receive an UOB visa card. I didn’t activate it. I have no use for it. I didn’t receive any statement from it, so although...

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Random thoughts: watching my son chase bubbles

Went to the botanic garden together with my family. Seeing my son chasing bubbles and laughing with glee when he pop a bubble is a nice experience. The simple joy of a pure young kid. Bubbles are beautiful, chasing after them are fun, but only those with a pure heart like a kid, will not think too much about the bursting of the bubbles. Life is like that, isn’t it. Most of us have a life of abundance, but we refuse to chase the bubbles, thinking it is silly since it will burst anyway. We spent time thinking of...

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Lee metals: Year of record earnings and record dividend payout

Lee metals is the only counter thus far that provide results that I expected. Lippomall and Sabana are both disappointment. Dividends increase from 2.5 cents to 3.5 cents. At closing price of 39 cents, it is giving a yield of 8.9%. Beating most reits or trusts. Is it sustainable? Yes, IMHO, but only for 1 more year, as earnings from Austville will be realised this year. The EPS of 5.2 cents from that project itself (for calculation, see http://sillyinvestor.wordpress.com/2013/10/30/property-counters-determining-future-earnings/), should allow payment of DPS of 3.5 cents, a perhaps some “special” dividends. 2015 onwards, it will have to depend...

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Random thoughts: keeping a tab on your finances, but what about yourself

We usually keep a close tap on our finances. Although I no longer update my expenses everyday, I used to do that. Although I proclaim to be a long term value investor, I look at the SGX to check the prices of my counters at least 3 times a day. I read a lot of finance news everyday, Hellenics shipping news, valuebuddies, bloomberg, Nextinsight, and the aggregate of fiancé blog, Singapore finance almost everyday. I think about how to do my work better every morning, I reflect on the quality of my work after every “projects”. I forget to...

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Random thoughts – curbing anger

I have a anger management problem. No, I am usually fun loving, and have no problem mixing and connecting with different people, although I never like parties or crowds. Staff dinner? Family day? Please count me out. But I believe in my purest honesty that I am approachable and generally nice to people. But when I flare up, it is very intense. I don’t care WTF u are anymore. Although I will never resort to violence or yet to, smashing things around do happen. It seldom happen, but when it does, there is plenty of clearing of mess to...

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LMRT – An operation mystery solved

An short recap of operation numbers and my thoughts: Lippo DPU falls to 0.56 cents It is due to several results 1) currency weakness affecting revenue conversion back to S$ 2) Some one off finance expenses due to the MTN notes which was repayed in Q1 I am not overly concerned with the above reasons, because 1) while valid is not something that company can control, 2) should fall to more reasonable level for Q1 onwards, when gearing fall back to 26%. I am more concerned about its operation and is rather puzzled with the following: Operating wise, occupancy...

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HPHT – My tainted view of FY results

Market has given HPHT the thumb down for it Q4/full year results. NPAT and NPAT attributable to unitholders for the 4th quarter was 34% and 47% lower than last year. It seems like operations are deteriorating. First some number crunching. 1) OCF is 5.1 billion HKD compared to 4.4 billion a year ago. Q4 OCF is 1.4 billion. 2) Yantian did show better throughput of about 1% but is offset by the 12% decline in HIT ports. 3)   There were several one-off items, below are the items and the amount a) Expenses incurred for acquisition of ACT; est. 110...

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known unknowns and unknowns unknowns

The confusing phrase first used by Donalds Rumsfield during the invasion of Iraq. Let me do a summary of the known unknowns going into the year of the horse. (list not exhaustive, is what I know) What can go wrong: (Just a list, some of them are interrelated) 1) China shadow banking flare up. (WMP, trusts or SIVs) 2) Bursting of property bubbles 3) Conflicts in east china (China vs Japan; 2 Koreas; China and the South China Sea countries) 4) Currency turmoil in emerging markets 5) Asset price collapse of emerging markets 6) SEA elections frauds and conflicts...

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A query of my post about SGX

Dear readers, I receive an query email from a reader. I think I need to explain myself. When I write, I am thinking aloud and I do not proof read that many times. So I might be confusing at times, or it could be due to my command of the language. ( I am better at Chinese than English) The query go like this: Actually, i have a quesiton regarding your analysis out of interest sake. I am an investor myself. You calculated SGX intrinsic value to be $4.2 and the current price is $7 (6.8 now) and yet...

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What price monopoly?

Readers would have know I have been practicing DCF model just to get a “gut feel” of the valuation of the price. SGX caught me attention when it went below $7. So I took the average of 268 mio of FCF over the past 7 years (any earlier before meager would be meaningless), to work the sum. I thought 9% discount rate and 3% growth would be prudent and reasonable. Turn out without applying MOS of 20%, its intrinsic value is $4.2. That would be a yield of 6.7%, PE 15. Any serious investor would know its a screaming...

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