Author: Sillyinvestor

Random thoughts: keeping a tab on your finances, but what about yourself

We usually keep a close tap on our finances. Although I no longer update my expenses everyday, I used to do that. Although I proclaim to be a long term value investor, I look at the SGX to check the prices of my counters at least 3 times a day. I read a lot of finance news everyday, Hellenics shipping news, valuebuddies, bloomberg, Nextinsight, and the aggregate of fiancé blog, Singapore finance almost everyday. I think about how to do my work better every morning, I reflect on the quality of my work after every “projects”. I forget to...

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Random thoughts – curbing anger

I have a anger management problem. No, I am usually fun loving, and have no problem mixing and connecting with different people, although I never like parties or crowds. Staff dinner? Family day? Please count me out. But I believe in my purest honesty that I am approachable and generally nice to people. But when I flare up, it is very intense. I don’t care WTF u are anymore. Although I will never resort to violence or yet to, smashing things around do happen. It seldom happen, but when it does, there is plenty of clearing of mess to...

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LMRT – An operation mystery solved

An short recap of operation numbers and my thoughts: Lippo DPU falls to 0.56 cents It is due to several results 1) currency weakness affecting revenue conversion back to S$ 2) Some one off finance expenses due to the MTN notes which was repayed in Q1 I am not overly concerned with the above reasons, because 1) while valid is not something that company can control, 2) should fall to more reasonable level for Q1 onwards, when gearing fall back to 26%. I am more concerned about its operation and is rather puzzled with the following: Operating wise, occupancy...

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HPHT – My tainted view of FY results

Market has given HPHT the thumb down for it Q4/full year results. NPAT and NPAT attributable to unitholders for the 4th quarter was 34% and 47% lower than last year. It seems like operations are deteriorating. First some number crunching. 1) OCF is 5.1 billion HKD compared to 4.4 billion a year ago. Q4 OCF is 1.4 billion. 2) Yantian did show better throughput of about 1% but is offset by the 12% decline in HIT ports. 3)   There were several one-off items, below are the items and the amount a) Expenses incurred for acquisition of ACT; est. 110...

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known unknowns and unknowns unknowns

The confusing phrase first used by Donalds Rumsfield during the invasion of Iraq. Let me do a summary of the known unknowns going into the year of the horse. (list not exhaustive, is what I know) What can go wrong: (Just a list, some of them are interrelated) 1) China shadow banking flare up. (WMP, trusts or SIVs) 2) Bursting of property bubbles 3) Conflicts in east china (China vs Japan; 2 Koreas; China and the South China Sea countries) 4) Currency turmoil in emerging markets 5) Asset price collapse of emerging markets 6) SEA elections frauds and conflicts...

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A query of my post about SGX

Dear readers, I receive an query email from a reader. I think I need to explain myself. When I write, I am thinking aloud and I do not proof read that many times. So I might be confusing at times, or it could be due to my command of the language. ( I am better at Chinese than English) The query go like this: Actually, i have a quesiton regarding your analysis out of interest sake. I am an investor myself. You calculated SGX intrinsic value to be $4.2 and the current price is $7 (6.8 now) and yet...

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What price monopoly?

Readers would have know I have been practicing DCF model just to get a “gut feel” of the valuation of the price. SGX caught me attention when it went below $7. So I took the average of 268 mio of FCF over the past 7 years (any earlier before meager would be meaningless), to work the sum. I thought 9% discount rate and 3% growth would be prudent and reasonable. Turn out without applying MOS of 20%, its intrinsic value is $4.2. That would be a yield of 6.7%, PE 15. Any serious investor would know its a screaming...

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Sabana REIT- misjudgment of management, what to do next

In my earlier posts, I overestimated the management of sabana. They had make acquisitions that are yield accretive with decent yield of 6-7%. They have a performance fees structure that will only payout performance when DPU increase by 10%. If DPU increase 10%, I seriously do have problem with them claiming their due rewards. But alas, it’s quite obvious the management interest are not aligned with the minority shareholders and the capability is questionable too. First, a placement that dilute existing shareholders holding, to buy a half vacant AMD building. The results: Pathetic increase of about 3 million gross...

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Random thoughts- why are the young competing with the old for units at retirement village

I read with bewilderment that there are those in 20s and 30s buying units at the retirement village, the first in Singapore. All the 281 units were sold out within hours. I am not sure if those 20s and 30s are shopping for a unit for their elderly. If they are shopping on behalf of their elderly. I would say they are quite sweet in providing lodging for their old. I am not sure if there are rules to check the age of occupants. My logical thoughts are: maybe there should be a minimum age of at least 45...

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Random thoughts- strange how my preferences change so much with age?

I just realized my taste and preferences change a lot. I listen to FM 88.3 now, and pay a lot of attention to the lyrics and the instruments behind the music. I used to just like the rhythm and the “feeling” behind it. I loved to go KTV and sing, now I just like listening to oldies. Would u believe if I tell u I actually went youtube to listen to Michael’s smooth criminal again just last month. I used to find music boring, I needed pop songs. I like the sing of flute and string instruments now. (...

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Random thoughts- strange how my preferences change so much with age?

I just realized my taste and preferences change a lot. I listen to FM 88.3 now, and pay a lot of attention to the lyrics and the instruments behind the music. I used to just like the rhythm and the “feeling” behind it. I loved to go KTV and sing, now I just like listening to oldies. Would u believe if I tell u I actually went youtube to listen to Michael’s smooth criminal again just last month. I used to find music boring, I needed pop songs. I like the sing of flute and string instruments now. (...

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My thoughts after reading Nam Lee Metals AR

After reading up on the AR, I find a few interesting points: Information about major customers (p88): “In the current financial year, revenue from two major customers amounted to $77 million (2012: $89 million) arising from sales by the aluminium segment and $25 million (2012: $11 million) arising from sales by the aluminium and mild steel segment respectively” Its quite obvious 77 million come from carrier (pure aluminium business), and 25 million come from HDB (Both aluminium and mildsteel). Orders from HDB increase, which is what they have been saying, but orders from carrier is falling, or they are...

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Random thoughts- shouldn’t Singpost and SPH consider working together?

Just some random thoughts here. Singpost and SPH both have Hugh distribution network. Singpost wanted to go big on online retail, wanted to sign online franchise, SPH has hardwarezone and advertising is but a small variable cost. SPH help in advertising, add e-commerce depth to Singpost, singpost deliver both posts and newspaper. Parcel can be collected at both singpost outlets as well as Buzz pods. This will give buzz pod some retail depth and increase singpost retail distribution reach. When singpost go newspaper delivering, parcel for posts can be given to the delivery man using Pre-paid packages or containers?...

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Limitations of some numbers and ratios

Just a beginner blog of some of the limitations of some numbers and ratios. PE. There is limitations if the company you are looking at is highly cyclical. It my be at the peak of the cycle and hence PE is at the lowest, but earnings might fall, and PE increase. Earnings of core operations might not be that high, earnings might be very high due to revaluation of assets (properties or biological). Palm oil companies have good revaluation of their plantations due to the increasing CPO prices. Such revaluation might be one-off and are unsustainable. If you are...

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APTT – 2nd practice of new model

For APTT, I have already establish its economic moat and earning power in an previous blog http://sillyinvestor.wordpress.com/2013/12/17/aptt-is-distribution-sustainable/ APTT is a media company with regulation constraints/protection, with the rezoning of frachase areas, APTT will start to face competition from 2015 onward, but as mentioned in the previous blog, competition if any, will not be highly corrosive, as the pie (penetration rate low enough) is big enough, and competition will most probably be restricted to 2 per zone, since any more competition will most likely be suicidal due to the highly capital intensiveness of the business. Growth in  APTT, can come...

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