SingPost – the first catalyst has happened

The alibaba deal is on. http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/SGX%20Ann.ashx?App=Announcement&FileID=426494 Next is the confirmation of CEO. The better than expected results due to peak season of Christmas and Year end Celebration 2017, awaiting the SP mall to contribute. Am I dreaming? Why not? Greater fool theory? Alibaba is willing to pay 1.75 for SingPost new issue shares. I am … [Read more...]

A reflection of my investing approach

For quite some time, I found it hard to explain my approach. Value investing? Dividend investing? I am not going to pull my hairs over the words, but I realized I have many unanswered questions as I reflect on my investing journey. First of all, let's go into the buy side of investing. I am definitely not pressing the "buy" button using numbers as the only decision. Not that numbers are not … [Read more...]

Has the fundamentals of M1 and SPH caught up with valuation

I doubt anyone would disagree with me that the fundamentals of these 2 companies are being affected by competition. M1 by a highly possible 4th Telcom player and SPH by alternative news digital platforms. But that is only half the question, a better question would be "has the challenging outlook being reflected in the shares price, and has it overshoot to the downside?" Personally, between … [Read more...]

Doing company prospecting is risk management rather than prediction

This is somewhat triggered by B's post on swiber and the issue of hindsight commentary. It is not difficult to find what's wrong with swiber, MPM, etc. but personally, DYODD is more about self-accountability and comfort level rather than anything else. I remembered MPM had a price surge when it first announced its foray into Rig, if u have exited then, MPM is still a profitable (perhaps … [Read more...]

Random thoughts: "beautiful souls"- a thought-provoking book

"Beautiful souls" is a wonderful book, it is cognitively stimulating and emotionally disturbing. It contains 4 true stories about  the courage and conscious of ordinary people in extraordinary times. Just 1 story, and it stirs me. The story about the police captain who falsified papers so that Jews can stay in Swiss. It is not just a recount of what happens but also explanations of why it … [Read more...]

The numbers behind SIngpost

I have said in the comment section in my previous post that I expect Singpost to grow by 10-20%. So here is how the numbers add up. Recovery of rental income from SPC mall. SPC mall rental loss is about 4-4.5 mio annually, if you track the last 3 quarters of loss of income. When redeveloped, the retail space will double. Not just that, a check at property Guru of rental rate at the … [Read more...]

Random thoughts: How did I miss a multi-bagger

Cogent, that is. I thought I got a steal taking a 35% profits within months. ( 5 years of projected dividends at one go, 7 years of actual dividends) But it went to double its price. Nothing new happen. The growth drivers are not new, not sure why Mr Market value it so much higher at close to 20 PE now. Could I have avoid it? Again the debate of buy and hold Versus sell when the going … [Read more...]

Random thoughts: Recent retail experince

Recently, I need to set up a photo booth for my mid-autumn event. I needed a backdrop. It cost $250, it is a plain sky blue color cloth with stands, dimension is 3 by 2 m. It is rented, and have to be returned post event. (Lobang settled by my colleague)   I still need to worry about decorating it with mid-autumn theme. I am so busy that I asked my colleagues if I could just cut and past … [Read more...]

Random thoughts: Losing

No one like to lose. Especially investors, we swear never to lose money.   Can U imagine losing every quarter? Losing quarter after quarters for years? We would most probably be bankrupt, right?27 Now, if we are bankrupt, and someone ask u that the way to overturn the table, is to work harder and win at where u lost? In another word, stand up at where you fall, how would u … [Read more...]

Random thoughts: Caught between a rock and a hard place?

Chill, this is not as serious as the heading suggested, ok? If you are pragmatic, pursuing FI and generally frugal, but your wife wanted the finer things in life, something along the line of 5C, what would you do? I guess depending on the threshold and how big is the gap, everyone's answer will be different. I guess not many would allow the family fiances go into ruin by living like there is … [Read more...]

Recent action: Bought Singpost

Just a head up.   Singpost fell in higher volume today. Guess Alibaba might finally decide no deal for venture of Quatium Solutions? Perhaps the next CEO also ran away? LOL I believe Singpost can grow earnings by 10-20% over the next 2 years, with or without Alibaba. Of course, a JV with more capital injection is welcome. With Alibaba, it might grow at an higher end of that … [Read more...]

Recent Action: Yangzijiang

"I am a poor Poker Player, I let people know my move. LOL" "I am also inconsistent, since I was just blogging about restraining my buy" Hey, Rolf and SMOL, see I preempt your poking first. See how I see you up up and even before I pen anything down, I thought about your reactions. OK, enough bullshit. While the STI is showing plenty of resilience, Yangzijiang is falling. Plenty can … [Read more...]

Random thoughts: All that I did not know about Singpost

This is a random thought series. No numbers or valuation call. I was rather intrigued by Singpost business, creating an Eco-system to feed  into logistic. Singpost aim to be an e-commerce logistic player, many forgot the "logistic" behind the equation. But here goes, what I didn't know, or cannot confirmed till now. I was very intrigued reading the annual reports of Amazon, and EBay, and … [Read more...]

Random thoughts: overcoming the urge to "buy"

Regular readers would have know that I kaisi and sold quite a bit of shares immediately after Brexit. Cash is now about 30% of my investible fund. Usually, I would be "dying" to replenish my portfolio to maximize dividends. Surprising, my Emergency fund and my investible fund is both at my "historical" high, I would usually have a hard time keeping my hand off trigger, but this time now, I am … [Read more...]

Random thoughts: Rethink work-life balance

Is there really such a thing as work life balance? There is, but it is not about work load per se, but about not bringing the baggages of work home. Let's face it, for most of us, we spent the most time at work unless we are man of leisure. I think for most, it's inevitable that we bring work home. But that should be it. Bring work home but not the stress and baggages that come with … [Read more...]

Radom thoughts: Sillyinvestor INc 1H intern report

Chairman Message: 1H of 2016 is volatile, market first went through a correction with no apparent reasons in January and February, It is then when we get busy and bought ST Engineering, CMPH (Which is going to be delisted) and Venture. We also sold Cogent during the first Quarter. It turned out that the correction is what it is, and we made a good trading paper profits on those trades. Cogent … [Read more...]

Random thoughts: Forced Savings?

I have heard of this term rather frequently.Basically, we forced ourselves to put aside a sum of money so that at the end of duration, we got some money saved up. Buying university insurance plan is one of the most commonly utilized "forced saving" which is through an endowment plan. Recently, my wife ask my sis for endowment plan, I ask her why is there a need to do that, since she is … [Read more...]

Random thoughts: Putting ourselves in others’ shoes?

I think we have all heard the above phrase before.   Can we? Really?   If we can't see ourselves clearly. We can't.   Recently, my wife and MIL have been trying very hard to console someone close to them to snap out of her depression and her negativity.   Usually the person get on my MIL's nerves by being too negative and grouchy. While I feel that her predicaments are largely due to her … [Read more...]

Common traits of an effective teacher

Having the advantages of being in 2 schools and also in the vantage position of able to observe lessons of different teachers in action, I think I can start to see some common traits of highly effective teachers. By "Effective", I mean able to value-add in terms of marks. It is scientific and easily tracked, but I am not discounting the intangibles. So here go. 1) systemic approach with the … [Read more...]

Sabana REIT- Read beyond numbers ( Biased )

( no vested interest, divested early 2015)   Sabana has good discount to NAV and good yield, but look beyond numbers.   I have not seen management killing messengers. When rating company S&P reduced it credit rating, what did it do? It requested that credit rating to be withdrawn. It's loans are no longer rated and the reason given is it is unnecessary as rated or not, it's a 45% … [Read more...]