Author: Sillyinvestor

Coporate announcement: Portfolio update

As mentioned during the annual report of Sillyinvestor Inc, we will continue to trim our portfolio to hold more cash as and when opportunity arises.   The management does not think there is anything fundementally wrong with the company. The privatization of parent company is just noise.   With a holding period of 15 months, the return has been 16% including dividends. We feel it is a fair return as we await opportunity.   The management want to take full advantage or a bear/ correction as and when it happens. Management believes it should not need to wait more...

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Random thoughts: Annual Report 2016 Sillyinvestor Inc

Chairman statement:  Dear readers, the theme in 2016 is surviving in a volatile world. There are 2 shocker news: first Brexit and next Trump’s election. But the market survived and blossom. We are proud to announce we have grow from strength to strength. The company manage a dividend of $3849 in 2016, from a capital base of about $57000, giving a yield of about 6.5%. This is a 2.5% improvement in yield and 40% increase in dividend. However, trading profits is flat or negligible. The small profits in 1H was gone as we increase cash by taking a loss...

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Random thoughts: Risk-reward profile by considerations and assumptions.

I am sometimes able to draw parallel in the investing world with teaching and learning. This time round, it is the reverse, I draw valuable insights from teaching and learning that can be transferred to investment. We have a module on reflection, and suddenly I realize in investing, we made many considerations but seldom do a check on our most fundamental assumptions. Let’s do this: I consider 1) YZJ to be a cyclical play. 2) it to be a alpha company that will gain when turnaround happens. 3) it to be reasonably financially strong, unless u totally discount HTM...

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Singpost: 2nd catalyst and 3rd catalyst

Singpost has found a replacement CEO. This is a CEO with operating expertise in logistic and freight forwarding. A timely change as it move to synergied its accquistions. With this CEO, I hope this pace of accquistions will stop over the next few years. The second catalyst has happened. Market is not excited, but at least not disappointed. Singpost has risen intandem with the market The third catalyst, will be out in 2 months. Alibaba has a record sale during Nov 11. Amazon also had record sales. If u read their analysts meeting notes, Mervin has always “hint” that...

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Company prospecting: Fallen angels

Some ideas for 2017? LOL Fallen angel initially is used to describe the downgrade of bonds to junk status. I remember attending the fifth person’s invest X congress that define fallen angel security to that that fallen 90% I take 50% from its PEAk for it and I have the following: 90% fall Parkson Retail Asia 70% fall – APPT About 50% (thereabout), the following: Sabana Yangzijiang Silver lake All of them face varying challenges. With the exception of PRA, all are still profitable. PRA While PRA has no debts,  its balance sheet is weaker than it seems. It’s...

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Random thoughts: My report card for 2016

At the end of 2015, I Blog about the goals for 2016. It’s quite funny now when I revisit it. This is because I started with 2015 has not been an easy year for me. This year, my work in terms of KPI really sucks. My department had a “historic drop” is quality passes. My mum passed away, and the caregiving part is tough. But today, as I penned this, I thought “God” has been merciful and kind to me in 2016. This holiday, I only had a 8 days break, the shortest holiday, but I am still thankful....

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Random thoughts: An online temptation

Lol. Just talking about an email offer to become an aflilate for a particular subscription. I had always wanted to earn some kopi money from blogging if possible I had really want to try my hand on it. Especially after some correspondences with the Marketing Manager, the product seems decent enough, and perhaps even of quality. The analysis are sharp and some could really be rather useful for some readers. I was talking to a few blogger friends and after thinking over it during my holiday, decided to give it a miss. And most probably it will be a...

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Investment rules for myself to obey in 2017

I realized I have been rather trigger happy. I am going to set these rules for myself for 2017   1) Any buy entries must fulfilled one of the three investement theories. A cyclical recovery play, growth drivers play or strong FCF, negligible debt yield plays.   2) All entries must come with a potential exit plan with potential reward. POTENTIAL reward should not be lower than 35% in a entry, to accord for the macro risk that this bull market it marching into its 9th year.   3) 2017 to exit when potential is met regardless of how...

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Accordia Golf Trust

I didn’t see much views about the potential privatization of sponsor by MBK. Reading about the tender offer, offer a few insights that I think are important but not reported by the various news agency. 1) “Year 2020 problem” It means a problem that may cause a reduction in golf demand in circumstances where a majority of postwar baby-boomers who lead the current golf demand will be over 70 years old. My thoughts: It is a direct conflict with AGT’s management claims that the seniors have more time to play golf and it is a opportunity. Also, 70 years old...

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Random thoughts: Human capital

Human capital? What comes to your mind? The amount of money your skills and network can generate, payoff? Right? In simplicity, our work. My work for the year 2016, is drawing to a close, as usual,I am going to review my human capital. When I started 2016, I wrote E3. I want to do be effective, efficient and engaging in my teaching. I think I done all three. I do not want to review how effective, neither do I want to put a value to it, I know I have make a conscious effort in these areas and I...

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Random thoughts: my pupils’ dream job

It is winding down to the end of the year. I introduce Windows Publisher to my pupils, and asked my pupils to do a business card for themselves. I told them upfront, choose something u want to be, u like, dun worry about money, forget about your parents ‘ expectations for a while. It is just a fun exercise, think of a job that will make you happy! If really being a lawyer or doctor is what you want, go ahead. My top class has the most pupils wanting to be doctors. It is still the most popular job....

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Ascendas Reit: A weird share price pattern?

I am writing here because I felt there might be some “pattern” in Ascendas Price movement. Granted, all industrial reits are facing some weakness with fear of interest rate hike and spike in industrial vacancy. But lets start with this picture. If only this is the chart for its share price. You can see from here, with the exception of GFC, A-reit has an unblemished track records for raising DPU. Of course amount available for distribution grow much faster than increase in DPU, due to dilution of shares. And we are going to have the ECS issue overhang now,...

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Random thoughts: A 3-part lesson about thinking out of the box

SMOL keep writting about his teachers; it gave me the itch to write about my teaching. There is a chapter about Lim Bo Seng, our War Hero. Instead of the usual lesson, (it’s after exam), I ask the pupils to extract info from the text to make into a pamphlet . I told them to choose sides, if u are Guerilla fighters on Lim Bo Seng side, what would write in the secret pamphlets  about his death? If u are Japanese imperial Army, what would u write in the Phamplets? In this exercise, I challenged this top class that...

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Singpost Q2 – My thesis is challenged

i did not expect the dividends cut policy to be announced before the announcement of the CEO. I shall not talk give a summary of the quarter report, readers can look at them themselves. There are several negatives in this report. Of the above, the one that throw me off my comfort zone is higher cost in the e-commerce business. This cost, the “last minute fulfillment of labour” smell like poor execution by Global Trade, and the business in it US, I am not sure how much “control” singpost has. It’s IT investment is going to continue since the...

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Venture Corp and Lee Metals

Last Friday was the day Singpost, Venture and Lee metals results were out on the same day. I have wrote a post about Singpost, it’s results is below expectation. As for Venture, the recovery story continues. It is a very good set of results. Not only has the recovery continued, margin has continue to improve. There is no more info on the different segments, but I guess the medical testing segment is continuing to expand The funny thing is Abeerdeen is always selling more than they are buying. Cash pile is increasing. The good dividend of 50 cents is...

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