Author: The ThumbTack investor

Capitalizing on Brexit – Portfolio changes

As mentioned in my previous post last week, a momentous event like Brexit seems to be too juicy to miss. Over the weekend, I set about trying to find a way to hopefully profit from it. Fortunately for me, I have just a few weeks earlier, divested my entire stake in Hock Lian Seng and a substantial stake in Metro Holdings, freeing up capital to deploy in turbulent times like this. As mentioned in earlier posts, I’ve also covered my shorts, freeing up yet more capital. It’s been a good black swan event thus far, no complaints. I am...

Read More

Ramifications of Brexit: What’s Next?

Every time there has been a major news event like Brexit, some people have generated immense wealth, while others have lost it all. I believe people like Soros and Icahn have benefited greatly, since their short positions are well known. The key question most investors want to answer is: What’s next? Should an investor plunge in now, with all the mayhem, and start buying risk assets? That’ll look like a smart move if this downturn is short and the panic subsides, and things go back to normal. On the other hand, if this is the start of many events,...

Read More

Brexit Is Here!

EU has lost one of it’s strongest members. After many months of speculation, Brexit is finally here, and Britain, in time, will cease to be part of EU. What does this mean for the typical investor? Everything! I have no idea where to begin. Everywhere I look, I can think of ramifications of Brexit. In my mind, this cannot be a good thing for the British. Yet, immigration is a hot button topic everywhere. Xenophobia is understandable, and a very strong emotion. Even in Singapore we see that being a big factor in elections. I am sure the Singaporean...

Read More

BBR Holdings Investing Thesis Addendum

An acquaintance has expertly pointed out an inaccuracy in my projections for lakelife EC project, and I’ve amended the figures accordingly. Basically, I’ve neglected to account for taxes to be paid for the project (nobody can tell the taxes, I’ve just assumed a 20% rate), and the loans to be repaid by the JV to BBR. So let me just do the consolidated figures again here: Breakeven price $727 psf Selling price $873 psf Estimated profit $(873-727) x 653,000 = $95.3mil (Assuming fully sold) Net profit after tax = $76.24mil (It is impossible to predict accurately the tax, I’d...

Read More

BBR Holdings Investing Thesis

This is my detailed analysis of BBR Holdings, current as of June 2016. BBR Holdings currently makes up about 29% of my portfolio, it is a sizable portion (2,056,400 shares) and I have been adding to my stake in the past 6 weeks, mostly at prices between $0.165 – $0.174. BBR Holdings (S) Ltd (“BBR”) is a construction and specialised engineering group with a swiss history. They are currently part of a “BBR network” which supposedly provides the latest engineering technical know-how. (I’m skeptical about this and think it’s just for paying royalties). It currently comprises four core business...

Read More

Brexit implications for the SG investor

Brexit is in the news. The British heads to the polls in a referendum this coming Thursday 23rd June 2016, to decide if they still want to be a part of EU. How would Brexit affect the typical SG investor? The same way it affects the whole world apparantly. Greatly. Now, I have no opinion on Brexit. No idea if it’s good or bad for the British in the long run. Fortunately, I don’t need to know, and frankly, I suspect nobody really knows. The LEAVE camp will cite many reasons for Brexit. Britain now sends more $$$ to...

Read More

Book List 1 – Inside Rupert’s Brain

I love to collect books. I have a home library which houses my personal collection of books. Somehow, I just can’t read e-books. I need the physical hard copy books. I now restrict most of the books I read to investing related or autobiographies. Too much stuff to read, too little time. I’ve decided to share my reading list in a new “Book List” section. Please let me know if there are great investing books that I should add to my library. INSIDE RUPERT’S BRAIN by Paul R. La Monica While this is not exactly an investing related book,...

Read More

Lessons from a failed investment – Flyke International Holdings

As mentioned in earlier posts, I think it’s a human tendency to focus on our successes, but often it’s the failures that are more instructive. To be fair and balanced, this post will be about one of my failures. Flyke International is one of my failed investments. I first initiated a position in Flyke in 2011, ultimately putting about $30k of capital into the company. Flyke International is a HK listed, shoe soles making company. They also manufacture their own line of apparel and shoes, and own retail shops selling apparels such as the lower margin sportswear and a...

Read More

Post-mortem of Hock Lian Seng Divestment

I think it’s very helpful to analyze an investment after one has divested, whether it’s been a successful or unsuccessful one. In fact, the unsuccessful ones are usually the most instructive ones. History of events I first initiated a position in Hock Lian Seng (HLS) about 3 years ago, at a price of between $0.24-$0.25, and continued adding till it reached $0.3. At the peak, I owned 1,000,000 shares of hock lian seng. I shan’t go into detail about why I had invested in HLS as the reasons are mostly stated in my HLS investing thesis post. But generally...

Read More

Dutech Holdings Investing Thesis

This has gotta be one of the most well managed, yet low profile company on SGX. Well, at least until recently when analysts finally started reporting on it. I was hoping to accumulate more but with the recent huge run up in the share price, I guess I’d have to reanalyze and rethink my position. This company is technically a S-chip. It is so low profile, that if you google “Dutech Holdings”, you can’t even find it’s website. Instead, it’s website is named under “Tristar Group”: http://www.tristarinc.com/our-company/company-profile.html I bought 570,000 shares in April 2015  at $0.275 and it currently makes...

Read More

Property Market in Singapore – June 2016

In Singapore, real estate is an asset class that every investor simply cannot ignore. Singaporeans love property. Period. The reasons are obvious: small island with limited land, open workforce with many expats supporting a healthy rental market, resilient economy that’s plugged into the word economy, relatively rich populace compared to our immediate neighbors, legendary stories of those who have made their fortunes in property. Property currently makes up a substantial part, albeit a separate part, of my overall portfolio. I currently own 2 units – a public HDB flat as well as a private condo. I have kept my...

Read More

Metro Holdings – A New, Old CEO

I have held Metro Holdings shares since 2012 and am thus very familiar with Metro’s operations and businesses. This post won’t be a detailed analysis of Metro as I have yet to fully digest the latest FY16Q4 results. I have lightened my position in Metro Holdings the past week though, for reasons that I may discuss in a later post. The share price of $1.06 that I sold at, gave me a fairly comfortable return from my initial average purchase price of $0.75. As of the time of writing, I still own a sizable position. It’s hard not to...

Read More

Triple S Scorecard – The Enhanced Version

This post is reproduced with permission from TUB. His blog can be found at http://tubinvesting.blogspot.sg/ Firstly, I like to thank TTTI for giving me the privilege to write a guest post for his blog. After deciding for a long time, I decided to write on my creation – Triple S Scorecard – which is also unique to how I invest. In addition, this comes as a good time as I am reviewing on this scorecard as well. When I started investing in 2009/10, I had my fair share of mistakes. It was only after reading the book, Value Investing: Tools and Technique for Intelligent...

Read More

Boustead Singapore Part II

This is a continuation from the post “Boustead Singapore Part I” Let’s start off with a table: The data above basically confirms our thesis in part I: Boustead is currently facing strong headwinds. Dividend has been reduced to multi year lows (if you exclude the dividend in specie distribution of BP), ROE has dropped substantially. NAV too has dropped, largely due to the demerger of BP. At the share price of $0.79, this means we’re paying a PER of 15 times, and a P/B of 1.4 times. Dividend yield would be 3.8%, but I postulate that this is artificially low....

Read More

Boustead Singapore Part I

I have had time to update my thoughts after reading Boustead’s FY16Q4 results. Boustead has always been a tough company to fully comprehend, mainly because it’s 3 main divisions (used to be 4, with the water treatment division) are in seemingly different industries with little synergy between them. I do not regularly update or keep track of the average price of my Boustead shares, inclusive of dividends as Boustead is a long term holding, and I have been receiving scrip dividends, which in turn has generated further scrip dividends for me. It’s quite a hassle to update that. I...

Read More

Like us on Facebook

Follow us on Twitter