Author: Xeolyenomics - The Game of Economics

Just when people think that US is impervious to the problems that has plagued the Emerging Markets since the start of the year, the day of reckoning finally came as the US stock market joined the Europe and Emerging Market counterparts and plunge into correction zone. The first question investors have been asking since the start of the fall – “Is this the start of the bear market?” Let us look at some market indicators to help us estimate how far we are in the economic cycle. US Treasury Yield Curve The US treasury yield curve is a comparison...

The Turkish Lira crashed 20% within a few days and the fall was accelerated by a speech by Turkish President Erdogan and a Tweet from US President Donald Trump… “There are various campaigns being carried out. Don’t heed them,” Erdogan said Thursday “Don’t forget, if they have their dollars, we have our people, our God. We are working hard. Look at what we were 16 years ago and look at us now,” Erdogan told supporters. A few moment later, Donald Trump tweeted. Donald J. Trump ✔@realDonaldTrump I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum with...

The US steel tariffs initiated by President Trump on major trade partners was initially thought to his bluff leverage concessions from trade partners, especially China. Seems like Trump is serious about his threats and the tariffs went ahead. Major trading partners put together a list of tariffs ranging from orange juice and whiskey to inflict pain on the agricultural support base that has propelled Trump to power. With another round of US tariffs of $34 billion worth of China goods going to take place on 6th July, the world turns their sight onto the Chinese government and their counter...

A year ago, I wrote about why commodities is in a sweet spot to invest in and at that point in time. Oil is hovering at around the $50 mark, and fast forward to 2018, oil has reached a new high at $70, having appreciated 40%. Even though oil has performed exceptionally well, its performance has been eclipsed by Bitcoin with a 500% yearly gain. For investors who are looking for a high risk investment and has a more practical use as compared to cryptocurrency, oil may be your answer. The purpose of this article is however, is to take a...

The trade war initiated by President Trump escalated in the month of March as he instructed the US government to devise a plan and impose a tariff on $50 billion dollars worth of goods targeted at China. Unfair trade practices, stealing of US technology and intellectual properties are some of the reasons stated for the implementation of the tariff, in an attempt to narrow the $385 billion trade deficit with China.  In retaliation, the Chinese government implemented a 25% on 128 U.S. products, ranging from wine to soya beans. As of now, the proposed tariffs are just threats which will only...

The financial markets are thrown into turmoil once again, by the implementation of steel tariffs by the Trump administration as a barrier to the cheap China steel. However, instead of targeting just China, the steel tariffs are imposed on a global scale whether they are friends or enemies. The problem is that, US imports 70% of its steel from Canada and Mexico while China only constitutes 2% of its steel imports. After much protests from Canada and Mexico, the Trump administration excluded both countries and went on to impose the tariffs to include every other countries. What are the...

Europe, the continent that has rocked the global financial markets with debt crisis and a Brexit has been relatively quiet on the financial front in the past few months. However, there are 2 significant significant developments that warrant the attention of investors. Here are some of the newsworthy events which we should watch out for: Implications of EU tapering of QE The EU central bank initiated their Quantitative Easing (QE) program in 2009 and since than, the EU economy has recovered sufficiently to warrant the EU central bank to start tapering back on the QE program. The tapering involves...

The failure of repealing and reforming Obamacare has left the Trump administration without any legislative victory. Both the Trump administration and the Republican controlled government are eager to pass a tax reform before the end of the year. The key points of the tax reforms will have the following effects: One-time Low Repatriation Tax Rate for Corporate Profits Held Overseas Big cash rich MNC such as Google and Apple are holding most of their cash outside of USA due to the high tax expenses they will need to pay if the money is repatriated back. This one time “Tax Holiday”...

Shortly after the US Presidential elections, the USD shot up and hitting a multi-year high, with investors expecting that a newly inaugurated President Trump will be able to revitalize the US economy through tax cut, infrastructure building and trade sanctions which all will assist in the strengthening of the USD. 8 months later, the USD has reached a 2 year low and has fallen rapidly by 6% against SGD within this short period of time. There are 4 main reasons behind this sharp decline: Reason 1: Chaos in Trump Administration The rush of scandals that engulf the Trump administration...