It shall soon pass

By: La Papillion It's been a while since I blogged because I am too busy with work to do anything. There's so much happening in the world today that I had barely enough time to catch up on the major developments unfolding right now. There is no shred of doubt that we're all sitting right in the middle of this action and we all have the honour to bear witness to this historical event happening … [Read more...]

How far more for the ST Index to fall?

By: Tan Kin Lian Someone asked me, "What is the lowest point that the ST Index can go down to?" I do not know the answer. I don't think that anybody knows. But I can make a guess. And I wish to caution that this is just an opinion. Here are the high and low points of the ST Index during the past two crisis. Asian Financial Crisis - 1998: drop from high of 2,400 to low of … [Read more...]

The Pendulum Swings from Irrational Optimism to Brooding Pessimism

By: musicwhiz We have now come to a stage in the economic cycle which can best be described as "unbridled pessimism", if such a term actually exists. A few investing blogs such as Jeflin's have written about such events and how it has translated into pervasive fear in the stock markets. One would recall that not too long ago (perhaps just more than a year back), pundits and commentators were … [Read more...]

Economic Effects of a Bear Market on Companies

By: musicwhiz I think by now, any normal man on the street will be all too aware of the effects of an economic slowdown coming to our shores, as well as feel the effects of heightened inflation. The newspaper has been blaring the news out almost every day in a non-stop stomach-churning litany of bad news, contributing to the ever-increasing gloomy sentiment prevailing in the stock markets. But … [Read more...]

Trapped in bear trend

By: Alen The US financial sector is in serious turmoil, because of the excess built up over the years and the creative bankers. When sub prime issue first came into picture, nobody expects this bad, or at least not the man on street. Now, it seems like the sub prime is only the trigger of the bear. We are not economist or expert(even the expert not always right), nobody could predict when it … [Read more...]

My Investing Journey: Hurricane Katrina

By: DanielXX If late-2004 and early-2005 are remembered for the corporate debacles of CAO, Citiraya and ACCS, the later part of 2005 will be remembered for the attention that centered on oil and refining. The catalyst was Hurricane Katrina, which was the worst-ever storm to hit the Gulf of Mexico and caused extensive damage to the refining facilities in the region, exposing the deep global … [Read more...]

The Singapore Property Market: Personal Take II

By: Jay This is a continuation of the last post. Ok, so the bulls will say expats can pay. Now I do not know what is the average expat pay, but let's just assume the average expat gets the same salary of the top 10% of our population ie $12k per mth. If you are an expat earning $12k per mth, will you fork out 33% of your salary for rent? For me, if I were an expat, I know I am not going to … [Read more...]

Thoughts about STI part 2

By: La Papillion Was nudged by millionairemind to do a little investigation into the total returns of STI should year 2008 fall by 20%. Since I have not been checking STI absolute value (I did check the daily relative % drop/rise though), I was quite surprised that since the start of the year, we've dropped a cool 20%. I did post a table with the values of all the CAGR for different years … [Read more...]

Property Investment in Singapore (Part 1 and 2)

By: Adrian Khiat I noticed a shift of Singaporeans perspective towards Property Investments over the past few years. Even till today, as I went through the Financial Plans of my clients, most of them with surplus in their income are considering getting another property in the next 1-3 years. Another observation I have on these people are that they do not have a Retirement or Children … [Read more...]

The Beauty of a Bear Market

By: musicwhiz On hindsight, it would have been extremely obvious to a casual observer and a reasonable person that the market would turn bearish this year. That is the problem in general with predictions - they are usually extremely accurate only by looking at history ! However, this post is not to lambast people who attempt to time market cycles (some do get it fairly accurate but are often … [Read more...]

What wage-price spiral?

By: DanielXX Inflation is in the air, and Singapore has not been spared. Indeed, as one of the most open economies in the world, we are seen as particularly vulnerable, even a precursor to what the rest of the world will experience several months later due to our lack of subsidies for many common products that typically shield consumers of other countries from immediate price impact. Given … [Read more...]

The resurgence of Singapore retail

By: DanielXX The subprime crisis and the many malicious tentacles extending from it (the chief one being inflation) have dominated (negative) global attention over the past year but I feel several themes have receded into the background as a result though they still remain compelling stories in their own right. One of them is the remaking of Singapore. Make no mistake, this is one big story … [Read more...]

Why Market Downturns Are Not All Bad

By: DanielXX Yes yes, we are in a market downturn and it's depressing to see Mr Market's valuations of your stock portfolio (and your own valuation of your stockpicking abilities) going down and seemingly bad news all round with seemingly no hope of recovery in the next five years, but things are not all bad. No, this is not an article encouraging short-selling (think you'll be an idiot to … [Read more...]

Stagnation + Inflation = Stagflation

By: Adrian Khiat The Birth of the word "Stagflation" The word stagflation was a portmanteaus introduced in Britain by a member of the Conservative party during a House of Common Speech on 17th November 1965. A portmanteaus are blended words formed by 2 words of different meaning into another unique and new word. Other examples of Portmanteaus are "Bombay + Hollywood = Bollywood", "Medical + … [Read more...]

Don’t get caught in a bubble – Part 3

By: Jay The 3rd bubble that we will talk about would be Singapore's own property bubble in 1996-1997. This is the most interesting example bcos it is the only 1 in my 3 examples whereby prices have surpassed the previous peak. However that doesn't mean that investors who invested at the peak did ok. In fact most people will still be under water. But at least, they have much better chance to … [Read more...]

Pimco’s Bill Gross: Fooling With Inflation

By: Drizzt This is not the first time that i posted an essay by Bill Gross. Why do i post so much article on the man? I admire him for his profound commentaries on the market. Sometimes it gets so profound that i need to reread what he wrote a few times just to get what the heck he is trying to say. At the same time, it is interesting to listen to what the world’s largest bond fund manager … [Read more...]

Bull Market Baloney and Bear Market Valuations

By: musicwhiz Strange title eh ? At the risk of sounding silly, the title is supposed to represent my posting on the valuations inherently found within a bull market, versus a bear market. Interestingly, as we have observed currently, the bear market is not even fresh into a year (12 months), yet people seem to be complaining that it's "too long" and everyone is hoping against hope that the … [Read more...]

Don’t get caught in a bubble – Part 2

By: Jay The 2nd bubble that we will talk about is the one that is most familiar to many of us. This bubble goes by many names, the dot com bubble, tech bubble, IT bubble etc but I shall call it the TMT bubble (as some in the financial industry calls it). TMT stands for Tech, Media and Telco (I think), and it is named as such bcos these are the sectors that rallied the most during those days in … [Read more...]

Investment strategy for the second half of 2008

By: Alen This is not meant to be a long analysis article. At the point of writing, Dow is down 134 for the Friday trading. If not surprise or bargain hunting, it would most likely ended the week at the lowest point. After the relief rally, the stock market is again focusing on the bad news. Credit crunch seems to be over but the inflation worry persist. At this point, these are the most … [Read more...]

How to win the investment game by not losing your monies

By: PanzerGrenadier Flickr! photo by jenn_jenn. Beating inflation at 6+% is difficult Beating inflation is not easy when it is at 6%+. The unending news about price increases in basic necessities such as flour, rice, transport, groceries, rental etc. in the last year or so means that our investments or savings that are generating a return of 1%+ is actually losing its ability to buy … [Read more...]