DOW 21,000 : What’s Next and Its Valuation

I think it is time for me to update the world major stock market’s valuation by “ Regression to the Mean ”  after DJ exceeded 21,000 mark in such a short period after hitting 20K level. Always remembered that “ Reversion to mean “ is just a “statistical phenomena “ and it may take much longer time to “reverting to mean” if market is in bubble or irrational stage. As renowned economist John … [Read more...]

Highlights of Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Sembcorp Marine & Ezion Holdings

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Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, the largest private shipbuilder in China, has registered a total return of +20.3% year-to-date. Sembcorp Marine, a global leader in marine & offshore engineering solutions, has total returns of +38.0% year-to-date. Ezion Holdings, the largest offshore services provider listed on SGX, has total returns of -1.3% on a year-to-date basis. The stock, however, has … [Read more...]

3 insights gleaned from Berkshire’s 2016 Shareholders Letter

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Warren Buffett is one of the best (if not the best) value investors of all time. Given Buffett's advancing years, nobody truly knows how many more of Berkshire's Shareholders Letter will be penned by the legend himself. As such, I highly recommend all value investors to seize the opportunity to learn directly from him. In particular, Buffett had devoted a sizeable portion of this year's letter … [Read more...]

Equity Management #4 : On Market Anomalies

Market anomalies would not normally creep into a discussion between value investors but their existence demonstrates the possibility of making profits by understanding some market patterns which has been happening on a regular basis for a while. Even if you are a long-term investor, knowing these anomalies might assist you in deciding on a good time to buy a value stock. a) January … [Read more...]

3 things you need to watch out for when investing in emerging markets

Historically, emerging markets have been both the darling and the crux of investors. This is because its emerging markets’ growth potentials have drawn excited investors who are seeking high returns on their investments, while the instability of these markets have also caused them heavy losses. If you look at our table below, it’s easy to glean that the developed markets like S&P 500, DAX … [Read more...]

Tom K: Singapore Stocks Ahead

Dear readers, though it might sound like a cliche but really how time flies and today is the 28th of February. Whenever it is the end of a month, I will review how the Singapore stocks markets have been faring as a whole. I believe the local stocks markets have been performing well in line with the larger stocks markets. US stocks markets have been going up and are now at highs and there are no … [Read more...]

Industrial REITs generated a total return of +8.2% YTD (STI +8.1%)

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Industrial REITs in the SGX S-REIT index generated a total return of +8.2 YTD (SGX S-REIT Index +6.0%), similar to the Straits Times Index’s (STI) +8.1%. The sub-industry forms the largest share in the SGX S-REIT index with 8 members and a total weightage of 26.5%. The top three performing Industrial REITs in the YTD are Sabana Shari'ah Compliant Industrial REIT (+18.4%), Ascendas REIT … [Read more...]

How Malaysia’s East Coast Rail and China’s Future Transportation Strategy impacts Singapore

I am a fan of Benjamin Koh at Lighthouse Advisors. Lighthouse Advisors is a value shop for the accredited investors based in Singapore. What is great is that Benjamin’s letters to clients (which was embargoed for 1 year) and the public is a tome of knowledge for people like myself learning investing. Through his commentary. most often we learn about accounting frauds, or ways to detect … [Read more...]

Buffett: ‘Widespread Fear Is Your Friend as an Investor’

25 Feb 2017 : Warren Buffett’s Letter to Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders Some years, the gains in underlying earning power we achieve will be minor; very occasionally, the cash register will ring loud. Charlie and I have no magic plan to add earnings except to dream big and to be prepared mentally and financially to act fast when opportunities present themselves. Every decade or so, … [Read more...]

Ernest’s market outlook (24 Feb 17)

Dear all, Dow has hit daily highs for 11 consecutive sessions, its longest streak of records since 1987! What’s next for our markets? S&P500 Just to recap what I have mentioned on 10 Feb 2017 (see HERE), I wrote “various indicators such as RSI, MACD, OBV and MFI continue to exhibit bearish divergences. ADX has slid from 41 in Dec 2016 to close at around 18 on 10 Feb 2017, which is … [Read more...]

Rising Government Spending Bodes Well for Healthcare Sector

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The SGX All Healthcare Index generated a total return of 16.2% over the past 12 months, outperforming the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Ex Japan Healthcare Index and the MSCI World Healthcare Index, which generated total returns of -0.5% and 10.4% respectively. The five best-performing stocks in the SGX All Healthcare Index excluding International Healthway Corporation are Talkmed Group (+35.8%), … [Read more...]

Do household income trends matter?

The Department of Statistics Singapore (SingStat) issued a press release and report on Key Household Income Trends 2016 recently. You can look at the summary of key trends in the press release and find the detail in the report. This is one of the most interesting data reports from SingStat that I have looked at. The other being the article on households’ spending by age group. It gives my wife and … [Read more...]

Electronic Components Stocks Shine as Exports Gain Momentum

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Singapore’s Electronics exports rose 6.1% to S$4.3 billion in January 2017 from the same period a year ago. This rising trend in Singapore’s electronics exports generally bodes well for the Electronic Components sub-segment. The Electronic Components sub-industry was among best performing sub-sectors in Singapore’s IT industry, generating average total returns of 31.7% and 66.7% in the … [Read more...]

Will Trump’s Policies Result in a Stock Market Crash?

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Last week, the Business Times published a great article - Markets are underestimating the risks of accelerating inflation written by Neil Behrmann - which I thought was worth a second look. In the nutshell, the author believes that there will be rapid inflation coming our way, especially with Trump's policies, and that this could be a sign of an impending market crash. I quote some parts of … [Read more...]

How Real is the Trump-driven Stock Market Bull’s Run lately?

I had been away from the stock market for several months now and then I realized that there had been a bull run lately. Dow crossing 20k and STI crossing 3k. Wow... Great according to what Trump tweeted and many reckon he is going to transform the US economy for the better. You really think so? I remember in several months ago when Trump was the candidate, he mentioned we are in a day … [Read more...]

Change is the only constant

I haven’t been reading much into individual companies. I just felt that with markets hitting new hits, the is now very little room for errors. Why go against the tide? It is ‘fun’ tabulating up the unrealised profits week after week. However, as any investor would know, unrealised gains are as they are – unrealised. Capital gains are fickle, passive income gains not as much – but if you stick … [Read more...]

Market cycle approach to working and ETF investing

I haven’t posted anything new in 2 weeks. Work picked up and the past 2 weekends were packed with family and friends meetups for lunches and dinners. Typical life of a working couple without kids. We spend most of the week at work during the day and with each other at night before scheduling all the catching up sessions over the weekend. This is on top of trying to find time during the week to … [Read more...]

Highlights of Singapore’s 10 Largest OSV Players

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Singapore’s 32 Offshore Supply Vessels (OSV) stocks have rebounded 17.2% in the year-to-date in tandem with the recent oil price rally. OSVs are one of the key beneficiaries of a crude oil price recovery. The 10 biggest OSV stocks listed on SGX have averaged a YTD total return of 28.9%, against total returns of 0.9% for the SGX MOE Index, a benchmark for the MOE Sector. Despite the rally, … [Read more...]

Why Currency Values Drop After Political Change

Whenever there is political change, there is currency value change. Whether such political change is for the better or worse is often a matter of opinion, but almost every time currency values seem to drop after such a change. Most recently the US dollar has experienced its worst start to a year in decades, mainly due to President Trump taking residence in the White House. There are many reasons … [Read more...]

Real Estate Sector Outperformed in the Year to Date

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SGX’s Real Estate Developers and Operators have returned 12% YTD, outperforming the STI’s +8%. Despite the rally, the price-to-book ratio of the Sector is still trading near one standard deviation below its historical mean. Potential drivers for the Singapore property market exist on both the supply and demand front. The biggest Real Estate Developer stocks with substantial Singapore exposure … [Read more...]