By: La Papillion I’m in a rather pensive and introspective mood these days. Such days are usually my most creative days too. I remember doing some artwork when my mood is at the worst, perhaps I’ll share with my shareholders here one day. I’m thinking a lot about the probability and chances since I’m in the midst of reading the book by Nassim Nicolas Taleb’s The Black Swan. Let me ask these … [Read more...]

Absolute Return Investing

By: Wilfred Ling Absolute Return Investing sounds like some mystical investment strategy that is difficult to comprehend and that the returns should be fabulously better than traditional way of investing. In this INVEST June/July 2008 issue, Wilfred Ling attempts to explain what Absolute Return Investing really means and what kind of returns an investor can expect from such strategies. The … [Read more...]

Don’t get caught in a bubble – Part 3

By: Jay The 3rd bubble that we will talk about would be Singapore's own property bubble in 1996-1997. This is the most interesting example bcos it is the only 1 in my 3 examples whereby prices have surpassed the previous peak. However that doesn't mean that investors who invested at the peak did ok. In fact most people will still be under water. But at least, they have much better chance to … [Read more...]

4 Things you need to know about Jubilee Series 8 Notes in today’s The Straits Times

By: Derek Lim I wasn't aware of this investment product until my colleague mention that her mother was introduced to a certain wonderful product by Standard Chartered that offered her guaranteed returns. Even my mom came to know about this because someone introduced it to her in the office but it was from Citibank. I was skeptical and suspected both to be the same product but I was confused as … [Read more...]

Leverage – A Double Edged Sword

By: musicwhiz Leverage is a word often heard of these days, especially with the sub-prime credit crisis in full swing affecting everything from major US banks to far flung Japanese banks. Apparently, the amount of debt which investment banks take on is enough to cause a ripple effect and add to the major headaches experienced by reputable financial institutions, who have had to write down … [Read more...]

HotStocksNot Indices Reconstitutions 2008

By: DanielXX STI 3001.81 22.25 (0.7%) FTSE Midcap Index 739.68 -7.63 (-1.0%) FTSE Smallcap Index 637.49 -1.79 (-0.3%) FTSE Fledgling Index 686.76 -5.33 (-0.8%) Retail Index 112.72 -0.61 (-0.5%) Plastics Index 65.80 4.60 (7.5%) Env/Water Index 108.14 1.18 (1.1%) Energy Index 183.06 1.42 (0.8%) China … [Read more...]

The Bull Hunter – Dan Denning

By: La Papillion This book is very meaningful to me. I remember in 2006, me and a friend just went over to DBS building there to just open a DBS Vickers account together (but not joint). After some time, my friend bought this same book and passed it to me for reading. I browsed a bit and realized that this book is not ‘locally contexted’ and hence dismissed it, saying that it’s not suitable for … [Read more...]

Pacific Andes – FY 2008 Financial Review and Analysis

By: musicwhiz This review and analysis was long overdue, I admit, but analysis takes time and I did not want to do an analysis that was too short and shoddy in case I missed out something important. As it is, there was recently an interview with Pacific Andes where CFO Dennis Chan gave updates on PAH's plans for CY 2008 and on how to tackle rising costs. More on that later. Profit and Loss … [Read more...]

A writeup on Silverlake Axis (on NextInsight)

By: DanielXX No, this is not a hotstocknot article. I wrote this article for NextInsight about one of the lesser-known stocks in my virtual portfolio, and thought I'd reproduce it here in my blog. As always, grab the facts, but be sceptical of my opinions and think it through yourself. You may be aware of a Stock Challenge organized by NextInsight and that I am one of the invited … [Read more...]

Pimco’s Bill Gross: Fooling With Inflation

By: Drizzt This is not the first time that i posted an essay by Bill Gross. Why do i post so much article on the man? I admire him for his profound commentaries on the market. Sometimes it gets so profound that i need to reread what he wrote a few times just to get what the heck he is trying to say. At the same time, it is interesting to listen to what the world’s largest bond fund manager … [Read more...]

China New Town unappreciated

By: Alen Last Friday, Dow closed at the positive region, the coming week should see some rebound. After that, the bad news might get investor nervous again. The only transaction I did last month was to buy China New Town share. After watching it plunging from 80 cents to near 20 cents, I think it is a good buy. My buying time also coincide with major shareholder purchase. As highlighted … [Read more...]


By: La Papillion Business Singtel had significant operations in Singapore and Australia, through a wholly owned subsidiary of Singtel Optus. They are the second largest satellite operator in Asia pacific, with international network providing direct connections from Singapore to more than 100 countries. Singtel had major investment in telecommunications industry in Thailand, India, … [Read more...]

Principal Guaranteed, Principal Protected

By: Tan Kin Lian Hi Mr. Tan, Let me explain what I know about the difference since I have held some of these products before: Principal Guaranteed – The issuer (not necessary the bank selling you the notes) guarantees it. As long as the issuer does not go bankrupt you should be safe. However the issuer of such notes are usually special vehicle companies set up by reputable banks such as … [Read more...]

Mid-June 2008 Portfolio Summary and Review

By: musicwhiz The first half of June 2008 was a surprisingly quiet month for me as my companies had nothing much to report. I would assume that their business is chugging along fine, though of course as the global economy reels from high inflation and a receding economy, this would inevitably have some impact on my companies’ businesses. Furthermore, Vietnam as a country is experiencing many … [Read more...]

Bull Market Baloney and Bear Market Valuations

By: musicwhiz Strange title eh ? At the risk of sounding silly, the title is supposed to represent my posting on the valuations inherently found within a bull market, versus a bear market. Interestingly, as we have observed currently, the bear market is not even fresh into a year (12 months), yet people seem to be complaining that it's "too long" and everyone is hoping against hope that the … [Read more...]


By: La Papillion Vicom is Singapore’s leading provider in technical testing and inspection services. Listed in 1995, they have 4 business segments: Vehicle inspection business, vehicle assessment, commercial/industrial testing and other services. Vicom group consists of VICOM and JIC inspection centres, VICOM assessment centre (VAC) and SETSCO services. VICOM and JIC centre is a one stop … [Read more...]

Competitive advantage period (CAP) — Part 2

By: Level13 Competitive advantage period (CAP) is the time during which a company is expected to generate returns on incremental investment that exceed its cost of capital. Economic theory suggests that competitive forces will drive returns down to the cost of capital over time. If a company earns above market required returns, it will attract competitors that will accept lower returns, … [Read more...]

Competitive advantage period (CAP) — Part 1

By: Level13 In 1991, Barrie Wigmore, a Goldman Sachs limited partner, released a study that attempted to determine what factors drove the stock market’s above-average returns in the decade of the 1980s. After carefully accounting for earnings growth, interest rate declines, M&A activity and analysts’ rosy forecasts, it appeared a full 38% of the shareholder value created in the 1980s … [Read more...]

Bully the Bear 1st half FY08 results

La Papillion never fails to bring a smile to my face when he presents his annual or in this case his bi-annual results. I thought that his article - By: La Papillion Dear shareholders, I am pleased to announce the half year results of Bullythebear for the financial year ending 31st December, 2008. It was an exciting half year for Bullythebear, with the many changes to serve our … [Read more...]

Swiber – 1Q 2008 Financial Statements Review and Analysis

By: musicwhiz Yep, this review was somewhat delayed but the past few weeks have been very busy and in addition, there was also Pac Andes and Boustead's FY 2008 results to contend with. Below is my brief analysis of Swiber's 1Q 2008 financial results; do note that quarterly results are not too significant on their own and it is better to see the overall trend in earnings and margins for any … [Read more...]