TheFinance.sg » Market Review and Trends

Dr Doom Nouriel Roubini is bullish!

Drizzt — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 15:06:18 +0000

This could be the ultimate contrarian indicator but when one of the most depressing market watch says this bull has a few months of legs to run, do you listen?

From CNBC.com:

“We’re a believer; we’re celebrating. We think the rally has legs,” explains Gina Sanchez, Roubini’s director of equity and allocation strategy. (She is also a CNBC contributor.)

She tells us that Roubini’s firm currently recommends being overweight equities, playing cyclical areas of the market such as technology. “Also we’d take some tilts into staples and telecom to collect yield. And we’d also be overweight ag and livestock. Generally we’d take advantage of the risk rally.”

She topped off the forecast by adding that investors have months to make money.

Roubini reportedly believes the recent action by the Fed and ECB will continue to make equities an attractive investment over the next few months.

…

Market Updates For Feb 2012 and Portfolio Adjustments

Sgbluechip — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 22:54:00 +0000

1)Local market STI increased approximately 11% year to date, 17% from Oct 2011 lows. There were similar returns across regional markets. US markets increase at a lower rate, roughly about 7% YTD.

2)The reasons contributing to the buoyant stock markets have little to do with market fundamentals. It is the consequent of central banks printing money as European Central Bank pledged to lend out 489B EUROS to ease potential credit crunch in Dec 2011. This is as good as providing cheap credit to banks which enable them to lend out more cheaply for investments. This money are flowing to Asia and emerging market regions. Just last week, funds investing in regional equities drew a net inflow of US$430M. This is the 4th straight month of inflows to Asian regions, which explains the 5th straight week of regional equities market appreciation.

3)Aussie dollars appreciated as stock markets rallied. …

Did you know?

Patrick See — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 19:12:00 +0000

Despite the events in Greece and Portugal, US and European markets are climbing. The DOW is testing 2008 resistance while the Nasdaq is testing the resistance before the internet bubble. All the above IS bullish.

In intermarket analysis, I tend to take note of all sorts of data as many as possible? Are the following important?

· Have you been noticing the BDI?

· Have you been following the GDP data reporting lately? As of date, 13 countries have reported negative QoQ GDP data! Portugal, Italy, Spain, UK, Taiwan, Indonesia just to name a few.

One of the above may be experiencing a technical recession, which is two quarters of negative growth! Amidst the above, equity markets are still climbing. Of course, i am not surprised.

On a separate matter, what should investors do now? For those who had been

· Watching, should we start buying now?

…

Weekly Comment on the US and SG market (07/02/2012)

The SG Investor — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:29:00 +0000

DJIA Unable To Break Last May High; Eyes On Ben Bernanke

About 2 weeks ago, I wrote that DJIA had faced a pretty strong resistance at around 12,500-12,550 level but the DJIA had surpassed that level with ease. Currently it is trading at 12,792 pts which is near last May high but have not managed to surpass this level. For anyone who had been looking at the market for the past 1 year or so, it is not difficult to recall that the market had reached that level before the US debt ceiling crisis came in and EU zone threatened …

What does Better (Global PMI + US payroll data) equates to?

Patrick See — Sun, 05 Feb 2012 18:54:00 +0000

(Posted Monday 250am)

The equation,

Better (Global PMI + US paroll data) = RISK ON!

As you probably know, PMI data coming from US, China, UK, etc has been better than expected. Global equity markets extended their weekly climb with the exception for Mexico, Australia, KL and Japan, just to name a few.

Some of you may not have realised that the US market had been stronger than expected. With the latest US data, the Non Farm Payroll and Unemployment data lowering to 8.3%, the Fed Chairman’s monetary policy of holding the Fed fund rates to end of 2014 is a question mark!

This is interesting. Did you know that the Dow Jones IA closed last week at a 3 ½ year high breaching the Q3 2008 high before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). It broke my resistance level of 12,800! And the S&P Golden cross is evident! Do we …

Economics 2012: Off the top of my head.

AK71 — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 13:23:00 +0000

I have been doing more thinking. OK, so what’s new?

In recent weeks, the stock markets rallied and with the strong closing on Wall Street last night, they look like they could move even higher next week.

The bulls say that the tide has turned and things are moving higher from here and that we should buy stocks on pull backs. The bears say that what we have seen recently is just a bear market rally from oversold positions and that stock markets will see new lows in time.

Both bulls and bears are looking into their crystal balls and coming up with reasons why they are going to be right. My own crystal ball is cloudy and I doubt it works at all.

However, drawing from what I have read in the news, it seems like the eurozone crisis is far from over. Banks in the eurozone are still …

Golden cross in S&P? Should we chase the market?

Patrick See — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 17:10:00 +0000

(Posted Singapore time, Thursday 120 am)

As you probably know, the S&P is forming a Golden Cross lately. This is where the 50 days moving average passes through (up) the 200 days moving average. To most technicians, it would be a bullish signal for the US markets! Or is the S&P forming a doji?

The market is there always. Be patient and wait up till US nonfarm payrolls registers on Friday. In addition, we have to wait how the market interprets the nonfarm payroll data and closes for the week. Whichever, the Golden Cross or the Doji, we have all the time to react after the market closes. Just be patient!

Meanwhile, the noise from Europe has been holding global markets. Greece is for one and Portugal for the other.

Is Europe playing time for an orderly Greece default?

Bond yields for Portugal auction dictates the markets lately. One day …

I like to be proven wrong sometimes…

Patrick See — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 15:02:00 +0000

Year 2011 was a very volatile year. Topping in Q2 2011 and then falling in Q3. Global equity markets reversed in 2011 Oct and kept on climbing. That’s when I started to speculate that we’re out of the bear market.

Though the market was volatile, I mentioned the markets were trending North despite the volatility. Bottoms were made at 10,400 and 11,250. Who would know where the Dow would meet resistance in the future?

The rally stalled in Nov having gained support in late November. Equity markets continued to climb assisted by the Santa rally commencing mid December. Again, the post was reinforced that we’re out of the bear market.

Is it time to go in? Should we chase the market?

In my last post, I hinted that the Dow would meet resistance at the 12,800 level. Did you all notice? On Jan 26^th, the Dow broke …

Weekly Comment on the US and SG market (30/01/2012)

The SG Investor — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 11:00:00 +0000

DJIA Performs Above Expectations

DJIA has seen to make a run since last Nov. In fact, it has exceed my expectation to actually attemp last May high. Throughout this period, there were many news talking about how unstable the EU zone is and that Greece had given too many false hopes that it won’t default. However the markets kept rallying. What does that tell us?

When ECB confirms unlimited lending to the EU banks for 3 years, market confidence returned and big players start to come in. Of course, these players would like to buy at cheap so the lesser …

Is the January 2012 rally the real McCoy or another false dawn similar to October 2011 ?

Kevin Scully — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 07:27:00 +0000

Is the January 2012 rally the real McCoy or another false dawn similar to October 2011 ?
Monday, 30 January, 2012 3:27 PM
Posted by Kevin Scully

The October 2011 stock rally – STI rose from 2630 to 2904 before moving down to the 2600 level until the rally in early 2012 (see chart below).

Chart 1: STI Index Oct 1-31, 2011

The October rally was attributed to three factors:

a) a technical rebound following a huge sell off in August when S&P downgraded the US’ triple A credit status

b) better than expected corporate earnings

c) EU Finance ministers approving a EU 5.8bn loan to Greece

The Jan 2012 rally seems to have more legs than October 2011 or does it ??!!

The Jan 2012 rally saw the STI Index rise from just under 2700 to an intra-month high of 2915 …

What lies ahead for this week? Bull or Bear?

Ernest — Sat, 28 Jan 2012 14:20:00 +0000

Last week, Asian stocks posted their sixth weekly gain, the longest winning streak since 2010 amid a dovish Federal Reserve and optimism that Greece would successfully negotiate a deal with the private creditors.

STI has surged 10.2% or 270 points year to date (STI closed at 2,646 on 30 Dec). On the charts, it is likely that STI may go higher early this week and challenge the gap 2,943 – 2,974 (formed on 5-8 Aug 2011) due to two possible factors viz.

a) Greek debt talks crystallised and an agreement is formed; or / and

b) China eases its monetary policy by lowering its required reserve ratio or enacts other measures.

However, once the initial euphoria over the above measures cools off, we may have to contend with what the credit rating agencies have to say on the Greek debt talks and whether this constitutes a default. Secondly, there …

Roar Of The Dragon Babies!

Lau — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 09:05:00 +0000

The Chinese zodiac dragon year is here once every 12 years. The birth rate this year has a significant impact to the whole country in the years to come. For example, primary school intake has to be expended to accommodate the larger intake, right up to secondary school, National Service and post secondary education. The competition among the children born this year will be most intense.

Well, for financial planners, the opportunities are going to be amazing. With parents nowadays so focus on their children, many even take the proactive approach to get at least an education plan for them the day after the child is born. Foresee that the insurance industry will carry on to boom with this market segment.

For property segment, the supply of new homes, seller stamp duties and the buyer stamp duties is going to halt the rate of price increase. Do note that it …

cashing in on the lunar new year?

Patrick Lim — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 08:27:00 +0000

during the first 2 days of the lunar new year, many consumers (including myself and my family) would have discovered that stalls levied a ‘premium’ for food and drinks purchased during this festive period.

just to cite an example, hot drinks like coffee and tea has been hiked to $0.90 to $1.20 instead of the usual $0.70 to $0.90. and simple meals like a bowl of noodles cost $3.50, or $0.50 more than the usual $3.00 during the non-festive period.

however, in an article by the free local tabloid, today, it was reported that even though the lunar new year (public holidays) are over, prices have remained high when prices are expected to return to normal when stalls resume business after the holidays.

one example is ltn food village at east coast road where 3 of the 10 stalls put up signs to …

the dragon year, in more ways than one

Patrick Lim — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 09:50:00 +0000

i read the abovementioned article with great interest by mr toh yong chuan, senior correspondent, published in today’s edition of the straits times.

he started off by illustrating that the word, dragon denotes firstly prosperity or something that is grand.

he cites the local stock market using the example of the sti which ended the year 2000 (the last dragon year) at 1,927 points and market capitalisation then was $417.8 billion. at the end of 2011, the sti had gone up to 2,646 points and market capitalisation at a much higher $716.3 billion.

other statistics:

singapore’s gdp was $165.2 billion in 2000 to $284.6 in 2010
trade nearly doubled from $470 billion to $902 billion
singapore got bigger from 683 sq km to 712 sq km
population grew from 4 million to 5 million
literacy from 92.5% to 95.9%
life expectancy from 78 years …

US taxpayers bear the loss

Tan Kin Lian — Tue, 24 Jan 2012 08:38:00 +0000

Read this story about the burden that will be shouldered by the US tax payers over the losses that are suffered by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: http://www.cnbc.com//id/46106075Here is the background to this state of affairs:

The real estate market in the US was a bubble for one or two decades before it finally burst in 2008
During this period, large profits were made by developers, real estate agents, mortgage bankers and other people connected with the trade
The home owners were enticed to pay high and unsustainable prices for the property
The purchases were funded by mortgage banks and insured with Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other insurers
Bad financial products such as sub-prime mortgages and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) were created to fund these unsustainable prices

With the bursting of the bubble, the drop in real estate prices have to be shouldered by the home owners, the …

Genting SP breakout

P-T Trader — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 10:17:00 +0000

Happy new year to all!

Yes, i have not posted for quite a while due to work commitments but i have not stopped trading. I have every intention to keep the blog going but it is tough to post on a higher frequency. I have also adjusted my trading style towards Swing trading as i do not have sufficient time and capacity to monitor the shorter time frames.

Lets move straight to the analysis. Genting has been consolidating after the fall in November 2011, showing the typical signs of exhausted selling and good buying setups. Friday’s closing placed the stock at 1.595, a breakout from both the cosolidation period as well as from the initial fall in November. The stock is ready to move up.
The immediate target for next week is 1.64, which is a gap fill. There should be profit taking after that. I believe traders …

My AUM performance for Year 2011

Patrick See — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 02:39:00 +0000

In my previous post on global equity performance, the median on the average is (slightly above) a loss of 20% with the best performer Indonesia at -0.7% and the weakest performer Greece at -50.31%.

As for my (Asset Under Management) AUM for Year 2011, the median is -2.32% with the best performer at 3.85% and the weakest performer at -12.35%. 67% of investors had less than 3% of losses.

As everyone probably knows, the higher the risk, the higher the returns and if we want higher returns, we need to take higher risk!

During the 1^st half of 2011, we were able to eke a positive return of 2 to 3%. As I posted the fall of financial markets in Q3, we manage to shelter from the bearish market and cushion the fall to a loss of 5%. Taking DCA positions …

The year ALL stock markets failed to deliver as of Dec 15th 2011.

Patrick See — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 14:23:00 +0000

The year ALL stock markets failed to deliver as of Dec 15^th 2011. Correction made for date to December 15th 2011 on Jan 15th 2012.

The following is an extract from a UK financial website “This is Money”.

The best performer is Indonesia followed by Philippines, Thailand, US and Malaysia, out of which, 4 out of 5 comes from South East Asia! Singapore was -22%. There’s no prize for the worst performer (Greece).

The BRIC countries delivered -26%, -25%, -37% and -22% respectively.

For the record, the financial website missed out Venezuela which returned an astounding 80% for the year 2011!

We like to hear from you. Please share your success with us for Year 2011 performance.

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