Applying Benford’s First-digit Law to stocks

I have found the Benford’s First-digit law interesting. The law states that in a list of data, the leading digit is distributed in a non-asymmetric way. Basically, he found that there are more “1s” than the other numbers (2 to 9) for the leading digit. This discovery applies to stock prices as well. I have tabulated some of the figures for the STI components. I did one data set for end-2007 … [Read more...]

Capitaland: Average buy price of $2.81.

Readers might remember that I said I was waiting for a chance to reduce exposure to this counter. It means waiting for a rebound to reduce at resistance. I do not like selling as prices are on their way down. Of course, as I have mentioned before, this is also a flaw in my methods. If there should be no rebound, then, it is more stocks for the freezer. However, if we believe that downtrends are … [Read more...]

CapitaMalls Asia: A reversal signal.

When price touched a high of $2.05 per share on 9 Feb 2011 and declined to a low of $1.57 on 15 Mar 2011, the OBV declined rather sharply as well, suggesting heavy distribution. However, as price declined from a high of $1.92 on 11 April 2011 to touch a low of $1.66 in the last session on 6 May 2011, the OBV declined much lesser and, in fact, the OBV is much higher compared to where it was on 9 … [Read more...]

Kingsmen Creatives – Analysis of Purchase Part 1

I purchased shares in Kingsmen Creative on January 25 and 26, 2010, and the following few postings will elucidate the thought process and analysis which went into the rationale for the purchase decision. Note that some of the factors which led to this decision are qualitative by nature, and are also known as “intangibles”, but are nevertheless important in assessing if a company is suitable for … [Read more...]

San Teh revisited

1.5 years ago, I made a posting on San Teh: http://level13-analysis.blogspot.com/2008/05/appraising-san-teh.html Now I feel its time to sit up and take notice of this sleepy stock again. For the last 6 months, it has been trading at $0.25 to $0.35 with low daily volume. San Teh is currently in a sweet spot to ride on China's construction and infrastructure boom. The catalysts for its share … [Read more...]

What are the charts saying about SGX and UOB….in this correction

UOB is the preferred banking stock of our banking analyst Lynn but I like OCBC better mainly because of the absolute lower price. The other stock that is also not in my stock pick list but which has benefitted from the recent rally is SGX. I have below some technicals on both stocks which are seeing a nice correction to their over-bought position. Buying momentum has also turned down. I would … [Read more...]

OCBC’s valuation range

By: La Papillion I learnt a little more about the person who wanted a stake in Ocbc. She wanted to pass it on to her future generations, so the time horizon can be stretched further than the 3-5 yrs that she had told me initially. As such, preference shares might not be the best option anymore. I'm looking more into OCBC because that's what she wanted. This is based on the data I posted on … [Read more...]

The Cult of Consumerism: Why Savings is So Difficult in Singapore

By: PanzerGrenadier Singapore is a consumer paradise. Shopping malls can be found everywhere. Flip open your newspapers and be greeted by 50% of the newspapers filled with advertisements for all manner of products and services. Turn on your television set and be bombarded with images that make you thirst for the latest gadget, fashion or services. Consume, buy, spend now using credit, shop till … [Read more...]

Foreign Currency Fixed Deposit

This almost happen to me some years back when Foreign Currency Fix Deposit was very popular. Luckily for me, I had no money at that point of time else being a financial idiot then, I would have readily invested my money. Some were offering as much as 10% interest and Fix Deposits are supposedly risk free! I would like to remind others not to jump into a product that promises you very attractive … [Read more...]

Misleading Ad

By: Adrian Khiat I saw this ad in the Straits Times last week. I'm sure that many people will misunderstood this as a Fixed Deposit Scheme that is capable of giving 2.08% p.a How can we identify that it is not true? There are 3 lines of words that reveal this: Read more... … [Read more...]

Singapore Banks and Finance Companies 12 month fixed deposit rates

By: PanzerGrenadier Source: Monetary Authority of Singapore Financial Databases The trend since late 2007 in terms of interest rates has been clear. It is going down. This has been evidenced by Maybank iSavvy dropping its rates along with many banks such as Citibank’s Step Up accounts as well as most of the fixed deposit promotion rates for most of the banks featured in this blog. What … [Read more...]

How to manage your cash to maximise returns?

By: PanzerGrenadier How often have we heard this saying: “Cash is King!” But in investment terms, holding your investments mainly in cash does not generate you very high returns under current conditions. However, even in the low treasury bill yields of 1% or less and fixed deposits hovering just slightly above 1%, you will find it challenging to maximise your returns on cash. 0.25% is … [Read more...]

Mitigating the Risks of Investing in Foreign Currency Fixed Deposits

By: PanzerGrenadier Foreign Currency Fixed Deposits - A Whole New Ball Game The risk of foreign currency fixed deposit is the risk that the foreign currency you invest in loses its value (or depreciates) against Singapore Dollar. That can potentially wipe out the higher interest you earn from putting your money there. Therein lies the potential risk, and therein also lies the potential returns … [Read more...]

What can we do in this low interest rate environment in Singapore?

By: PanzerGrenadier Interest rates are low hovering around 1.5% or less for shorter tenures as can be seen here in my previous post on Singapore banks and fixed deposits interest rates for the last 2 years. There is nothing much we can do...unless In reality, for most savers, there is very little you can do if you are not willing to accept more risk for the possibility of greater returns. … [Read more...]

Surviving Low Domestic Interbank Rates in Singapore

By: PanzerGrenadier Time deposit rates have moved downwards along with Domestic Interbank rates Interest rates for savings and fixed deposits (time deposits) have reduced sharply since Oct 2007 as can be seen in the Monetary Authority of Singapore data on domestic interbank rates since Jan 2007 to Jan 2008. It has moved downwards from the dizzying heights of 3% sometime in Feb 2007 and … [Read more...]

Singapore Fixed Deposits Blog is born!

It is encouraging to know that more local bloggers have decided to share their Financial knowledge in spite of the current weak market sentiments. I hope this trend can and will continue. By: PanzerGrenadier I have decided to enlist the help of a forummer I met on one of the forums who has a keen interest and is well versed about fixed deposits interest rates. With his help, I am launching … [Read more...]

What is the best risk-free rate in Singapore?

By: Wilfred Ling During a Christmas gathering with friends, someone asked me for a question: What is the best risk-free instrument in Singapore? It was an easy question. My answer to that was: There is no risk-free instrument in Singapore. Traditional risk-free instrument is associated either with a bank deposit (preferably linked wiith the Singapore goverment) or the Singapore Government … [Read more...]

Insurers Not Protected From Risk

Patrick's comments on Dr Money's Article - Insurers Not Protected From Risk. By: Patrick Lim With regard to financial institutions like full banks and finance companies in the unlikely event of going bust, I heartily applaud the MAS's move to have implemented the deposit insurance scheme on April 01, 2006. Here's some nuggets of info on the deposit insurance scheme: From 1 April 2006, … [Read more...]

Mental accounting

By: Wilfred Ling A client of mine was paid in US dollar. He asked me whether should he maintain a US dollar saving account and accumulate his saving there as he receives the US salary. The rationale is because of the declining US, he hopes it will “recover” in the future. If he converts all the money into SGD now, there is no “hope” of recovering. Read more... … [Read more...]