Archive for the ‘Shares and Derivatives’ Category

Posted on March 12, 2010 - by AK71

Healthway Medical: A beautiful symmetry again

On 11 January, I had a post titled “Healthway Medical: A beautiful symmetry.”  In that post, I said: “I am a believer in chart patterns. See how the cup formation troughed at 9.5c and topped out at 14.5c? The target price in case of a breakout of the top of the formation is just a projection of the trough to the top and beyond which gives us 19.5c. This target price was reached in just one week from the midpoint of the cup pattern at 12c.”

Now, I observe a similar symmetry in Healthway Medical’s chart once more.  Recent bottom was formed on 11 Feb at 13.5c before price moved up, formed mini ascending triangles before breaking out on 3 Mar.  The neckline?  16c.  Target price of the mini ascending triangles would be a projection of the bottom at 13.5c to the neckline at 16c and beyond which gives us 18.5c which was hit on 9 Mar.  OK, interesting geometry lesson.  Now what? Read more…

Posted on March 7, 2010 - by AK71

First REIT: This one is for keeps

You might have experienced deja vu before. It has happened to me countless times. Psychic? Maybe but sometimes, things just fall into place in the strangest ways.

Today, I received a payment voucher from my broker on income distribution from First REIT. This is not a very glamorous REIT but I count it as one of the strongest in my portfolio. The generous distribution put a smile on my face.

Then, I wondered if I should blog about First REIT, using it as an example of the type of REIT we want to have in our passive income portfolio. I got home, checked my blog and found two comments from anonymous readers, both stating that they do not like REITs. So, that made up my mind for me.

I first bought some units in First REIT in 2007 for an average price of 75c per unit. Through good and bad years, it faithfully distributed income to unitholders every quarter: Read more…

Posted on March 2, 2010 - by kevinscully

Sing Holdings 2009 results – no major surprises but company did give update on Laurels….

Sing Holdings, one of my newer Stock Picks released its 2009 results last Friday. There were no major surprises in the numbers but the company did give an update on its project in Cairnhill – The Laurels”.

2009 results take-aways:

a) revenue in 2009 rose 243.6% to S$71.03mn

b) net profit was S$7.24mn up 426.6% from 2008 with S$3.0mn being recorded in Q4-2009

c) company is proposing a final dividend of 0.7 cents

e) 2009 EPS = 1.61 cents giving a 2009 PER of 25.0

f) NTA was 34.9 cents

Update on the Laurels:
Read more…

Posted on March 2, 2010 - by musicwhiz

Tat Hong – 1H FY 2010 Analysis and Review Part 3

In this final Part 3, we will look at Tat Hong’s Inventory levels and I will comment on their slow but steady transformation into a “rental” company and also their building of their tower crane business in China. I will also give a quick summary and low down on the progress of their planned China expansion so far, based on announcements filed with the SGXNet.

Crane Fleet Profile

Total Fleet Profile Review
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Posted on February 21, 2010 - by kevinscully

New measures to ensure a stable and sustainable property market might cool interest in property stocks for a while…

…what does this mean to Sing Holdings ??!!

Last night the Ministry of National Development announced two new measures to further cool the property market in Singapore. The measures included a stamp duty payable on properties sold within one year of purchase of 3% and  a reduction in banking financing quantum from 90% to 80% of Loan to Value.   This is the second round of measures after those introduced in September 2009 as according to the MND announcement, the property market was heating up again.

These measures are not unexpected.  Over the last couple of months, the issue of a private property bubble and even concerns about the affordability of public housing have emerged as serious areas of concern by Singaporeans.  The Government has sought to address the issue of property affordability and limited supply since the third/fourth quarter of 2009 by its first set of measures and also by increasing the supply of land available for sale – but possibly because of the time lag and concerns about limited supply and run-away prices, property launches have been well received. Read more…

Posted on February 18, 2010 - by musicwhiz

GRP – 1H FY 2010 Analysis and Review

On February 5, 2010, GRP released their 1H FY 2010 results. Considering the Company has hardly any news and updates in 6 months (it does not report quarterly), suffice to say this was quite a “momentous” event indeed! I immediately sat down to thoroughly run through its financials, commentary and to read about its plans and prospects. I shall now do an analysis and summary here and offer my comments on what to expect from the company in the next 6 months.

Profit and Loss Analysis

Disappointingly, revenues had dipped 5.4% from S$13.4 million in 1H FY 2009 to S$12.7 million in 1H FY 2010. In one traces back further, revenues had dipped 11.5% from 1H FY 2008 to 1H FY 2009, from S$15.2 million to S$13.4 million, so this is a 2-year continuous decline and does not bode well as it appears to be an effect of the global financial crisis; which has crimped demand for GRP’s products. This is probably also a result of oil prices which have remained low and which has affected its Hoses and Marine segment.
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Posted on February 17, 2010 - by DanielXX

Resorts World Casino – An Analysis

This is meant to be an analysis of the casino demand dynamics — not the IR. As far as I’m concerned, the centerpiece of both the developments is the casino, and everything else, including the convention centres or Universal Studios, are but secondary. The casinos are meant to subsidise all the other developments, so if they fail, the peripheral IR developments will be in trouble.

So there’re “crowds and crowds of people queueing to enter the RWS casino”, according to our mass media. Let’s sieve out the opinions and go for the facts.

The consistent number that was reported is that there were 6,000 visitors to the casino as of 6 in the evening yesterday. The casino openeded at 12 noon. At first glance, it’s hard to get your mind around this number to gauge whether that’s sizeable. I read earlier that RWS was planning to open about 500 tables at opening. Assuming that all 6,000 visitors stayed inside the casino over that period of time, that would mean a maximum number of 12 at every table. But hold on — from my experience at other casinos eg. Genting Highlands, at least half, maybe three-quarter, are likely gambling at the jackpot machines or the computerised gambling machines (you can play roulette, tai-sai, bacarrat etc at these gaming terminals with a central dealer manning the counter) — this means maybe a likely average of 5 per table instead. Now everyone who’s been to a casino will know that 5 at a table is pathetic or at best average.

And that’s on the casino opening day with so much inbuilt hype.

For some more perspective. Read more…

Posted on February 15, 2010 - by Createwealth8888

Olam – Amazing recovery!

Chief executive officer Sunny Verghese said the company could pay a dividend midway through the fiscal year because of its strong first-half performance and good visibility for the rest of the year. Read more…

Posted on February 12, 2010 - by kevinscully

Jaya Holdings – Q2-2010 results briefing takeaways……debt restructuring better than expected!!

..doing more work but definitely worth keeping on the radar screen

In my February 1, 2010 blog, I talked about Jaya Holdings being interesting after the Courts approved its debt restructing plan.  But no details were available then and I was worried about possible dilution from debt capitalisation.

The company revealed details of the debt restructing last night at an analysts briefing attended by one of our analyst.  The debt restructing plan is very attractive and good for Jaya shareholders.  S$362mn of existing borrowings will be converted into a 5 year secured note in US$.  No principal repayment for the first 2 years and repayments of S$66mn in 2012, S$85mn in 2013 and S$211.6mn in 2014.  Interest is 2.5% above Libor.  There are some dividend restrictions but the conditions were not disclosed.  This deal means no dilution of the company’s existing share base from debt capitalisation and also an orderly repayment of the debt. Read more…

Posted on February 11, 2010 - by Drizzt

Singapore Post:Falling Mail Profits may worry

One of the favorite grandfather stock that gives good dividends on a business that is predictable and survives well in recession.

I won’t be doing a full review on this stock but would rather take a look at its nine month operating performance and give an opinion about it.

The key thing for investors looking to invest in it is:
Replacement of Mail Equipment in 2013-2014

Singapore Post would need some 150 mil of capital expenditure to replace their equipments then. The beauty of Singapore Post is that capital expenditure is normally pretty low.

Any business that makes 130mil operating cashflow and needing 10 mil in capex is good business. SingPost have 4 years to come up with 150 mil.

Will they cut their 6.25 cents div because of this? There is a chance but may not be likely.
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