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How to identity a bubble

How to identity a bubble

Someone asked, "How to identify a bubble?" The answer: "Nobody knows". Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board said that one knows a bubble after it has burst. This is not helpful. It turned out to be disastrous, as the bursting of the US...

Behavioural Finance Part 4 – Hindsight Bias

Behavioural Finance Part 4 – Hindsight Bias

Initially, I had decided to discuss hindsight bias much later in this series as I had already lined up other "issues" in mind to feature before coming to this one. However, the recent market crash and subsequent bear market have caused a proliferation of hindsight...

2009 stock market outlook

2009 stock market outlook

Before I start writing this post, I was reading some articles and comments on the year ahead. Usually, at the beginning of each year, investor would do some reflection and try to position the portfolio for the coming year. The consensus now seems to be the earliest...

Digging a hole to fill another

Digging a hole to fill another

It is said that the current financial crisis is the worse the world have seen since the last depression in the 1930. So it is not surprising that big problems requires big effort to deal with them. The problem then becomes even bigger in itself when the effort turns...

Why Personal Accident Plan?

Why Personal Accident Plan?

Most people took up a Personal Accident plan via telemarketers, Credit Card complement or through their company's corporate insurer. An adviser who do not do proper fact-finding may miss out recommending a PA plan. It is understandable that few advisers like to...

Scattered Thoughts on Valuations

Scattered Thoughts on Valuations

With the current bear market entering its 16th month (most generally acknowledge that the bear market began in October 2007 when the STI peaked back then at the 3,800+ level), it is interesting for me to note that valuations between bull and bear markets can have such...

2009 Outlook

2009 Outlook

2009 has arrived and my first post in this new year will be a collection of the market outlooks and forecasts from various fund managers and distributors. Market directions are still fuzzy in 2009. Economy and market expected to recovery in 2010 Go for long-term...

Developing An Investment Philosophy Part 5

Developing An Investment Philosophy Part 5

A friend joined a fund management firm recently and was amazed at how the analysts were expected to cover multiple geographical markets simultaneously, since the firm managed several Asia-Pacific funds. How was he supposed to do it, he wondered, since he previously...

2008 stock market in review

2008 stock market in review

Year 2008 is a remarkable year for people around the world. We experienced many significant events – Beijing Olympics, US president election, Poison milk powder, Financial melt down etc. To stock investor, it was really a bad year. Can you imagine at one point STI was...

Short term bull, long term bear

Short term bull, long term bear

Last Friday, the STI closed at 1829.71 points. Within 1 week, it went up 5.15% from around 1740 points. The picture on the right shows that the STI has breached the 50 day moving average ever since it went below that line in June 2008. This indicates a short term...

Fund Managers Skills

Fund Managers Skills

Fund Manager need 2 skills to outperform the market. The skill of forecasting price movements of selected stocks. It is best described as "Security Analysis" or simply "Stock Picking" The skill of forecasting future economic conditions and adjust portfolio systematic...

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