Will swine flu kill the baby bull ?…..what did we learn with SARS?

I didnt think much about swine flu when the news broke over the weekend and was therefore surprised at the weakness in Asian equities yesterday and even more surprised when the US markets (which are much closer to the Swine flu problem) only fell modestly overnight. The Dow and Nasdaq were actually in positive territory in early trading before closing lower by 51 to 8025. Intra-day chart of … [Read more...]

Although we have been through SARs – dont under estimate this swine flu situation

I was having lunch with some senior fund managers and brokers today - all of whom expressed concern about the swine flu outbreak and what it could do to Global growth and the expected recovery. The consensus view was that it could delay the Global recovery by six months and push it into 2010 from end 2009. Many of them believed that this would dent investor sentiment and encourage investors to … [Read more...]

Stock Market Manipulation – US Markets and elsewhere

Retail brokerage customers generally never learn that they paid money for something that failed to be delivered to their accounts. That is because retail customers’ brokerage account statements do not reveal whether delivery takes place; even when no shares are delivered at settlement, share entitlements are still credited to the buyer’s account. Those credited share entitlements then trade in the … [Read more...]

Creating or destroying value?

Business should create products that give value to customers. If the cost is $X and the value to the customer is $Y, then the business is entitled to keep the difference to cover its marketing cost, expenses and profit. For tangible products, the customer can assess the value of $Y by looking at the price of similar products. For financial products where the future value is uncertain, such … [Read more...]

Thinking from the business perspective

Collin Yeo said... uptrending share price tells you nothing on the business and industry outlook"So what does? Consistent CAGR, strong cashflow, earnings and dividends? What if these doesn't translate into uptrending share price? Would you still buy into the company? Collin, the 4 points you mentioned above form only part of the metrics that an investor should take note of. The list is not … [Read more...]

What is Value Investing?

Interestingly, the internet doesn't have a good layman definition of value investing. Well, at least, not one that is easily understandable and can appeal to general people to adopt such an investment philosophy. So we are back to basics in this post (Again!), to introduce more people to value investing. Yes a tall order given that people are wondering whether they will keep their jobs and have … [Read more...]

The Ayam Buah Keluak Cheat

There was one Sunday which my family visited a food court. There was a stall which claim to sell “Nonya” food. So my wife bought the Ayam Buah Keluak. The outcome turn out to be anything but Ayam Buah Keluak. The stall did a short cut in the manner it cook Ayam Buah Keluak. The curry gravy used is meant for Asam fish. Before I continue, it is indeed true that the dish's gravy is indeed the asam … [Read more...]

Fundamental Analysis is Useless without Integrity

Somebody once said that in looking for people to hire, you look for three qualities: integrity, intelligence, and energy. And if they don't have the first, the other two will kill you. You think about it; it's true. If you hire somebody without the First, you really want them to be dumb and lazy., -Warren Buffett One thing good about this crisis is that it gives people a chance to learn things. … [Read more...]

Fundamental Analysis is Useless without Integrity

'Somebody once said that in looking for people to hire, you look for three qualities: integrity, intelligence, and energy. And if they don't have the first, the other two will kill you. You think about it; it's true. If you hire somebody without the first, you really want them to be dumb and lazy., -Warren BuffettOne thing good about this crisis is that it gives people a chance to learn things. … [Read more...]

Ezra – 1H FY 2009 Analysis and Review Part 2

Part 2 of my analysis focuses more on the Group’s prospects, plans and strategies and how these can sustain the business in the years to come. My investing style is such that analysis of numbers and ratios only forms one part of a holistic review of the business, as I believe numbers alone do not tell the whole story about a Company and thus cannot solely be relied upon for margin of safety with … [Read more...]

China milk quarterly tabulation

I've some time at hand to crunch some numbers for China milk. I've always wanted to do that but never really got around to doing it. Here's the figures: I didn't read through the whole annual report nor its business in details, so let's do it another time then. Here's a few thoughts: 1) Despite the s-share saga, there are some s-shares like China milk whose business are still very sound and … [Read more...]

Confessions of An S-Chip CEO – Is this true or someone wants to short something?

[Email circulation received by SGDividends]We are victims as well!!! Let me tell you the story. By the time you read this article, it would have reached hundreds of investors, bankers, regulators and journalists. My purpose was to shed some light on the "dark sides" of the business of S-Chips (Chinese companies listed on Singapore Stock Exchange), so as to help prevent more financial losses in the … [Read more...]

City Developments @ 6.01 (Property/ Singapore)

Main issues Weak sector outlook SOTP valuation is below current price I have been very bearish on property for quite a while, and this latest hotstocksnot coverage shows that I have not lost this pessimism over this sector yet. My recent views over Singapore property are well-documented in my Trendspotting blog article in February titled "Continued weakness in Singapore residential … [Read more...]

Bear Rally Refuses To Die But Don’t Get Carried Away

In case it is not glaringly obvious to you, the bear rally is still alive. Fundamentals have taken a back seat as investors continue to buy into the recovery story. The rationale goes like this - the stock market is a barometer for the future and investors buy stocks based on future earnings power. If there are indications the economy is about to turn the corner, it is wise to invest heavily … [Read more...]

Hongguo FY08 results analysis

Hongguo released their FY08 results quite some time ago, and it’s only now that I’ve the time and resolve to really sit through and pore over it in detail. Overall, it was quite a disappointing 4Q result – not terribly bad nor excellent, just so-so. It didn’t help that Hongguo did not declare dividends for FY08 too, presumably to conserve cash and stay liquid in this hard and trying times. I’ve … [Read more...]

Developing an unconventional life towards financial freedom

The more I experience the journey towards financial freedom, the more I realise it is to live an unconventional life. Why unconventional? Conventional wisdom teaches us to pursue materialism, to benchmark our success by seeing how big our homes are. How much income our careers generate and how are we keeping score in the game of “keeping up with your neighbours”. Think back at your … [Read more...]

Beware of interested party transaction

C&G used to be a stock market darling from 2006 to 2007. But this should no longer be the case going forward with their latest announcement. Basically, C&G is signalling to its investors that there is not much light at the end of the tunnel for the textile industry. To me, textile is a commodity and there is no pricing power for companies in this industry. Of course, this does not mean … [Read more...]

Overwhelmed at ATIC – so many things to trade!

I was at the ATIC (Asia Trader & Investor Convention) today. There were about 33 exhibitors promoting their various products and systems. Then I realised, there are so many products available for the investor! You have never invested or traded, I guess you would be overwhelmed at the fair. Although I am an advocate of futures trading, I shall give a brief summary of what products you can … [Read more...]

We are in the “Twilight Zone”…….is the bear dead or is this a suckers rally..

..my thoughts after a week of reflection Global stock markets have continued to hang on to their March 9 2009 gains leading to a strong six week rally which has surprised me by its strength. Even weaker than expected negative economic growth has been set aside as a lagging indicator. Underpinning the rally has been better than expected results from US banks such as JP Morgan, CitiGroup and … [Read more...]

Regarding the Recent Bull Rally – Irritated SGDividends

We are very irritated by CNBC and the presenter whose name is something Cutlow or Cudloh or Cartlow. He keeps talking up the market and sometimes we really wish to stuff his mouth with some spicy chicken drumstick but it will be a waste of money. So well......Anyway our auntie and uncle unofficial radar has detected some interest in stocks of late among their ranks which to us contrarians sounds … [Read more...]