This post is contributed by one of our veteran community members, @Li_Guang_Sheng. 

Read the post in full below:

This weekend, I will be sharing on my usage of applying probability. For me, for every decision that we make, whether you are confident or not, the actual chance when you make that decision to predict up or down is 50/50. It is the same logic as a coin toss/ or drawing a red or black card, the chance of being correct is at 50% chance at being right on a given toss/predicting a given card. I always use this simple ideology as simple as a coin toss/predict a red or black card and applied it to the market. For me, an analyst report or a trader’s current views of probability could