In one of my previous post, I spammed my readers with a bunch of yield curves from January 2007 to December 2009. The idea is to eyeball the data and verify whether was a yield curve inversion present before/during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and how well do changes in the yield curve over time provide us with ample warning of a stock market crash.

Unfortunately, the endeavour did not bear much fruit. The yield curve became more normal as the GFC unfolded. Still, I did observe that the yield curve was pretty much flat during the first quarter of 2007. Could I simply have selected the wrong period for analysis? Maybe the yield curve inverted before January 2007, became flat during the first quarter of 2007, and gradually became more normal?

In this piece, I shall continue spamming my readers with yield curves. This time round, the yield curves are from …