I have finished reading the book "Common Stocks, Common Sense", and have re-read a few chapters twice. I can really relate to the statement about modeling future earnings through qualitative analysis and "guessing" than just simply extrapolating pass data into future. This is especially true for companies that are cyclical in nature. It is not really meaningful to DCF its value, because the earning might be quite volatile. Reits might be a better target to DCF.
To cut the story short, I will like to share how I have applied my own future modeling using Singapore Companies as case studies. Readers who are interested, please read the book, as I am just trying to scratch the surface with my explanation.
First Step: Look for Market leader.
The reason is simple. I want a company that can captured the industry upturn. A company that will gain when industry turn around and not continue to...