Our world is highly complex. History is filled with examples of how seemingly unrelated events could lead to unexpected outcomes. The interaction between humans and their physical environment has second and third order effects that aren’t easy to understand. This makes the business of forecasting challenging, and the outcomes of various events difficult to model. American sociologist Robert K. Merton popularised the term ‘Unintended Consequences‘ to describe the phenomenon of unexpected outcomes. In our modern era, the phrase ‘law of unintended consequences’ is used as a warning that an intervention in a complex system tends to create unanticipated and undesirable outcomes. A prime example that comes to my mind is an episode during the Vietnam War. After inheriting the French position in South Vietnam in 1955, American forces found themselves caught up in a desperate conflict with North Vietnam. They were however, keen to avoid a similar fate as...