From time to time, Jeremy and myself receive questions from readers that are along this line: “Will the stock market of [insert country] be like Japan’s? Compared to its peak in late 1989, the Nikkei 225 Index – a representation of Japanese stocks – is still 40% lower today.”
It’s a good question, because Japanese stocks have indeed given investors a horrible return since late 1989, a period of more than 30 years. But perspective is needed when you’re thinking if any country’s stock market will go through a similar run as Japan’s stock market did from 1989 to today. Here’s some data for you to better understand what Japanese stocks went through back then:
- Japanese stocks grew by 900% in US dollar terms in seven years from 1982 to 1989; that’s an annualised return of 39% per year.
- At their peak in late 1989, Japanese stocks carried a CAPE (cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings) ratio of nearly 100; in comparison, the US stock market’s