I was reading this old interview transcript with Stanley Druckenmiller recently.

In the interview, Stanley was sharing the stuff that he learnt from his mentor. Once of which was this:

You don’t invest in a stock for its earnings today, you invest in a stock for its earnings 18 months from now.

He also went on to say that investing in a stock for its earnings today is about the quickest way to lose a lot of money in markets.

But anyway, this quote really got me thinking.

Let’s fast forward 18 months. Let’s jump to end 2021. What will REIT earnings look like then, and consequently, what will REIT prices look like?

Now I do get that in this kind of markets, earnings don’t necessarily translate into REIT prices. Short term, it’s still dominated by liquidity and funds flow. But let’s do this analysis step by step. We’ll start with earnings, then we’ll look at liquidity and funds flow