There is no escaping the fact that COVID-19 will take front and centre stage during the week. The question as to whether to quickly reopen economies and risk a second wave of infection or to slow down the rate of reopening and risk economic damage will be foremost on investors’ minds.
The US could say that retail sales have come off the boil in June after a strong surge in the previous month. In May, the country registered the biggest rise on record of 17.7%, as Americans went back to work, and many stores reopened after the corona lockdown. But retail sales growth could have moderated to a more modest 4.5% in June.
Retail sales could have bounced back in China, too. In May, retail trade declined 2.8% but they could have ticked up 0.5% in June. Meanwhile, China’s economy could register an expansion of 2.4% in the second quarter of 2020 compared to a contraction of 6.8% in the first three months of the year....