What a week! In the span of 5 days, we went from “Blue Wave (Democrat Sweep)” to “Oh shit Trump is gonna win” to now a base case narrow Biden victory. Anyway – this is an investing blog, so we’ll leave aside all your views on who should win. Because what makes money is what actually happens. So I challenged myself to come up with my 3 highest conviction stocks, for a long term investor (3 – 5 years or more timeframe). Basics: What is the current base case for the US Elections As at the time of writing, my base case is for:

• A narrow Biden victory
• Trump to contest the vote count, but will ultimately fail
• Senate remains controlled by the Republicans – limiting Biden’s ability to pass laws

Earlier this week, I shared this for Patrons: Biden Win If Biden wins the pro-Biden stocks will do well:

• Green Tech (solar, electric cars etc) – and conversely, shale/oil will suffer

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