What a week!

In the span of 5 days, we went from “Blue Wave (Democrat Sweep)” to “Oh shit Trump is gonna win” to now a base case narrow Biden victory.

Anyway – this is an investing blog, so we’ll leave aside all your views on who should win. Because what makes money is what actually happens.

So I challenged myself to come up with my 3 highest conviction stocks, for a long term investor (3 – 5 years or more timeframe).

Basics: What is the current base case for the US Elections

As at the time of writing, my base case is for:

  • A narrow Biden victory
  • Trump to contest the vote count, but will ultimately fail
  • Senate remains controlled by the Republicans – limiting Biden’s ability to pass laws

Earlier this week, I shared this for Patrons:

Biden Win

If Biden wins the pro-Biden stocks will do well:

  • Green Tech (solar, electric cars etc) – and conversely, shale/oil will suffer