What a week!
In the span of 5 days, we went from “Blue Wave (Democrat Sweep)” to “Oh shit Trump is gonna win” to now a base case narrow Biden victory.
Anyway – this is an investing blog, so we’ll leave aside all your views on who should win. Because what makes money is what actually happens.
So I challenged myself to come up with my 3 highest conviction stocks, for a long term investor (3 – 5 years or more timeframe).
Basics: What is the current base case for the US Elections
As at the time of writing, my base case is for:
- A narrow Biden victory
- Trump to contest the vote count, but will ultimately fail
- Senate remains controlled by the Republicans – limiting Biden’s ability to pass laws
Earlier this week, I shared this for Patrons:
If Biden wins the pro-Biden stocks will do well:
- Green Tech (solar, electric cars etc) – and conversely, shale/oil will suffer