The original version of this article first appeared in The Business Times
It’s a losing game predicting the erratic behaviour of millions of market participants. We should bet on things we can control – our own life choices.
“Those who have knowledge, do not predict. Those who predict, do not have knowledge.” – Lao Tzu, 6th-century Chinese philosopher
As a new year begins, we make a new set of resolutions. Alcohol and cigarette sales drop and new gym memberships spike 30 to 50 per cent, as people put those New Year’s resolutions to work. There is also another common feature. We see a deluge of forecasts and predictions pouring out of the financial media and the mouths of the “experts”.
Investment strategists all over the world perform their annual practice of predicting where the market will head in the upcoming year. Full of confidence and bravado, they forecast whether it will go up or down, and where it will end up.