With markets being spooked by the events occurring at China Evergrande, investors are now re-thinking whether they should continue to park their money in Chinese stocks.
Most of the articles online concern an analysis of Evergrande’s situation, so this article attempts to share how a rookie investor can start thinking about China by adopting a helicopter view and applying first principles. The aim is not to predict what will happen next but to give readers a proper framework when reading news of China.
You can find the full version of this framework in Ruchir Sharma’s The 10 Rules of Successful Nations. China has done okay for seven out of the ten rules, so I will only focus on three that raise concerns about the viability of investing in China.
1) Demographics
The problem with China is that the population is no longer growing like before. Decades of forcing women to have only one child have curbed population growth, and now...