According to the seasonal performance of the markets, it seems we cannot afford not to invest in the markets for the last 3 months, especially November.
Here is the average 1-month per cent change in the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1880 to 2012:
From this chart, it seems we have to stay invested from October to the end of January.
I was in the mood, so I dug up the performance of S&P 500, MSCI World and MSCI Emerging Markets in these 4 months from 1999 to 2020:
There are 22 periods during this analysis. The majority of this four-month period (1st Oct to 30th Jan) is positive.
There were more negative occurrences for MSCI World and Emerging markets compared to S&P 500.
Average returns have been positive, with Emerging markets having higher returns.
However, this period is not foolproof. I think most four-month periods were rather...