Initially, I had planned to wait for Grab to report it’s full year financial results. However my prediction is that the narrative then will be similar to now – “Yes we are now loss making and cash burning in all segments, but we will turn around soon.”
Investing in Grab involves a lot of prediction that with (i) scale and (ii) it defeats its competitors, it will become profitable.
Can We Trust the Narrative?
Judging from the need to scale, I don’t think Grab can be massively profitable just by growing revenue. It is difficult to achieve this feat with only South East Asia as your base. Venturing into China and India, you will fight the current incumbents who are well entrenched and some have profitable, cash generating subsidiaries.
Alternatively, if Grab wants to be profitable with just only SEA, it could turn to cost cutting measures such as reducing the