About a year ago, I wrote a macro article where I suggested that Cathie Wood’s ARKK would become a big problem on the way down.

I got a lot of hate for it back then.

But fast forward a year, and ARK is now down 50% from highs.

So here’s another macro prediction for 2022.

I think 2022 is going to be the most adverse macro environment for stocks since 2018. And I think risk assets generally are going to be in a world of pain this year.

For the record, this was what 2018 looked like for the S&P500. It basically went nowhere for a year, and finished it off with a massive decline.

What is my (or everyone’s) base case?

My base case for 2022, is that:

Q1 2022

By and large, things should still remain orderly in Q1. Growth is decent, inflation is rising, and Quantitative Easing (QE) is still in play.

Q2 and Q3 2022

Where things start to get rocky.