Maybe this time it’s different?
Last week, we heard from Fed officials that it was too early to “pivot”, these comments fell on deaf ears as equities rallied, and this week’s inflation print of 8.5% continued to buoy markets. Investors are assessing whether a slowdown in inflation would prompt the Federal Reserve to reduce the pace of rate hikes and increase the likelihood of achieving a soft landing while bringing prices down.
Headline inflation in the US abated slightly, down to 8.5% as compared to 9.1% in June, coming in below consensus and signalling that we may have reached peak inflation in June.
Looking under the hood, some of the components (energy, used cars, rental cars) that led to those eye watering figures are showing promising signs of abating. Most strikingly, rental car inflation, which once reached more than 100%, is now negative.
The S&P 500 ended up higher for the 4th week in a row....