A longer runway for a soft-ish landing
August saw a gain of 315,000 jobs, a good showing and in line with consensus estimates of 293,000. The jobs demonstrated that the US labour market is still resilient but not as exuberant as before, a good sign for the Fed.
Image credit: NY Times
After the release, the Fed funds futures market priced in a reduced possibility (still more than 50%) of a 75bps rate hike for the September FOMC.
Tighter financial conditions are percolating through the economy and showing up in macroeconomic data such the latest jobs report, a promising sign that the economy may have a longer runway for a soft landing, without a “growth recession”.
Singapore’s GDP forecast
Economists have lowered their expectations of Singapore’s 2022 GDP to 3.5%, from 3.8% in June. Inflation is expected to rise further, at the headline figure coming in at 5.7% for the year. Unemployment rate is expected to remain at 2% while 3m SIBOR is expected to rise to above 3%....