What a week it’s been! Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank have both gone bust. First Republic Bank is on the brink but seems to have backing from other big banks. Over in Europe, Credit Suisse is also in danger but the Swiss authorities are stepping in to try to save it.
It seems that cracks are finally starting to show with rates rising at the such a fast pace. With fears of a systemic banking contagion spreading, the Fed might have to slow the pace of rate hikes or at least not to accelerate it.
Based on CME FedWatch Tool, the probability for the Fed to raise by 25 bps at the next FOMC on 22 March 2023 is now at 62% vs 38% for the Fed not to hike at all. Previously, there was some probability for even a 50 bps hike based on recent inflation data coming in slightly hotter than expected but that has gone away with news...