The much-anticipated US inflation numbers provided few, if any, clues about the future direction of interest rates. If anything, the outlook is probably murkier now than ever before. At least when the inflation rate was high, we knew which direction interest rates would go. But now the market is virtually rudderless.
Problem is, the US consumer headline inflation rate rose to 3.7% in August from 3.2% a month earlier. That could be seen as a disappointment for interest-rate doves who could be hoping that the Fed would stop tightening.
Core inflation, however, which strips out volatile items, told a slightly different story. It came in at 4.3% compared to 4.7% in July, which could be bad news for interest-rate hawks. Maybe, just maybe, interest rates may have peaked.
For now, it looks as though the Fed could sit on its hands at the September interest-rate meeting. The data doesn’t appear to be conclusive enough for the rate-setting committee to hike rates...