Market Review and Trends
July 2024 Musings – Early Stage of Business Cycle, Myth of Deglobalisation & Implications of a Trump Presidency
By Kean Chan  •  July 30, 2024
Articles I’m reading KKR published their usual decks (Global Macro Trends) that are always filled with brilliant content and charts, and they highlighted the following points:
  • Bumpy, but faster growth
  • Now as worried about a lower US saving rate signalling an overextended consumer
  • Bigger regional differences in interest rates. In the US, what’s the rush?
  • Better EPS, driven by higher margins
  • Crude Oil – $80 is the New $60
  • Vital need for diversification given increasing correlation between equities and bonds
Of note, KKR’s cycle indicator is pointing towards Early Cycle: Venture Capitalists and Artificial Intelligence (AI) practitioners have touted that AI may boost productivity across the world over the next decade. But I came across this commentary from Reuters that is sceptical of the AI miracle to increase productivity. Amid other claims about reduction in corporate costs in operational efficiencies, one key reason according to the author is a much philosophical one: the lack of explanation of its predictive...
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By Kean Chan
Born and based in Singapore, Kean is fascinated with financial markets and global macro investing since a teenager. At keanchan.com, he records his thoughts on the world and archives his experience of mistakes and lessons and hopes that they are useful for viewers from all around the world. He is obsessed with reading widely across various fields, loves to jog and wishes he has more time for golf. While proficient with English, Mandarin and German, he is trying his best to improve his Cantonese and hopes to pick up French some day. Kean was a Toastmaster with ACB accreditation, and is a charter holder of the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst Association (CAIA).
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