The US elections, one of the year’s most pivotal events, is just around the corner. On 5th November 2024, the US will hold one of the most polarised presidential elections in its history.  We’ll dive into the current race, break down each candidate’s policies, explore possible election scenarios, and look at their potential impact on the markets. Who is Likely to Win?  Polling data and betting markets are two of the most popular ways to predict election outcomes, yet they’re currently painting very different pictures. Polls, often conducted through surveys, show a narrow lead for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who holds 48.8% in national polls compared to Trump’s 47.6%. With such a slim margin, the race remains too close to call. Meanwhile, betting markets, where gamblers wager on event outcomes, suggest Trump has a stronger chance. According to one of the most popular betting sites, Polymarket, his odds surged in October, with current figures giving him a 64% likelihood of winning, compared to Harris’s 36%....