Have you ever canceled your outdoor plans because of a bad weather forecast—only to be greeted by bright, sunny skies instead? That’s exactly what happened to my family earlier this year. In mid-January, the Meteorological Service Singapore forecasted a monsoon surge from 17 to 19 January 2025. Heavy rain, strong winds—basically the kind of weather that ruins your weekend. So we planned for indoor activities with the kids. But when those days arrived – Nothing happened. Clear skies. Dry weather. Not even a drizzle. And then… nothing. So, when another monsoon surge was forecasted early last week, I thought: Here we go again. Probably another false alarm. But this time, the rain came. The skies opened up and rain swept across Singapore—just as predicted. It was a simple reminder: Even with the best models, predictions can be either hit or miss. And nowhere is that more true than in the stock market....