Private credit, especially direct lending, has grown tremendously over the past decade. Once seen as a niche corner of the market, it now rivals traditional high-yield bonds in market size.
Most private debts are structured as floating-rate debt—that is, the interest rate changes periodically based on the prevailing environment. If interest rates rise, the income from floating-rate debt increases, and vice versa. So the natural question is: can private credit still deliver strong returns if interest rates fall again?
The short answer is yes—and history gives us some compelling reasons to believe so.
Table of Contents
Private credit held up well during past low-rate periods
How private credit generates steady returns even when rates fall
Lower rates may improve borrower health and spur new opportunities
What to expect going forward if rates decline
Bottom line: still a strong contender in any rate environment...