Hey fellow investors! The markets have rebounded from their bottom two weeks back! The S&P 500 has already rebounded more than 6%. Most Asian and European markets have recovered as well - Singapore’s Straits Times Index or STI has rebounded almost 10% from its bottom. You can almost feel the shift in sentiment — from panic, to relief, and now… maybe even optimism.
Since the start of April, it felt like we were caught in a financial storm — markets were tumbling, the US dropped its tariff bombshell, and investor sentiment took a hard hit. But now, the skies seem to be clearing.
First, the US backtracked slightly — announcing a 90-day pause in tariffs for all countries except China. That gave the markets some relief. Then just days ago, another U-turn: electronics like phones and computers were granted exemptions. Suddenly, investors took this as a sign that maybe these tariff threats weren’t so serious after all.
And the markets responded.
But here’s the thing: I’m still skeptical of the sustainability of the recovery. Yes, the market has rebounded sharply, but analysts have cut their full-year S&P 500 forecasts to an average gain of just 2%. Meanwhile, I see some of my friends diving back into the market like it’s still 2023 or 2024 — years when the S&P returned more than 20%. It’s not just here in Singapore either. The Financial Times reported that US retail investors are also buying the dip enthusiastically.
Because markets — like humans — tend to have short memories. Some are rushing back in, convinced that the worst is over, that policymakers won’t really follow through with tough measures. Maybe that’s true. But as long-term investors, not every rebound is worth chasing. We need to ask: Has anything fundamentally changed? Is this just a mood swing, or are there solid reasons to believe the road ahead will be smooth?
In today’s video, I’ll walk you through the four key reasons why I think it might be too early to pop the champagne. Stick around till the end — the final reason might just be the most impactful one of all.
Now, to be clear I’m not turning bearish, but I think it’s time we talk about some deeper risks that are starting to brew under the surface. Especially one that has long-term implications for the way the world views US assets. Even if you don’t invest in the US, remember that the performance of the US markets often sets the tone for the rest of the world, including Singapore.
Before we dive in, let me remind you that this video is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decisions. I own some of the investments discussed, but what works for me might not work for you.
Alright, let’s get started!...
